Big data is only possible, not omnipotent?

The curtain of the World Cup in Brazil has come to an end. Hundreds of millions of fans are happy or sad, stunned, or confused. The complex emotions will be restored, and their lives and work will continue. Looking back on the overall situation of the competition, some may remember that before the opening of the World Cup, a Yahoo U.S. team predicted that Brazil would eventually win the championship. Now the dust has settled, and it is clear that the predictions in advance have not come true. However, this does not mean that the research methods of relevant teams are of no value.

Yahoo's research team extracted football-related content from the 0.1889 billion articles on Tumblr's 83.1 billion blog accounts, then we will focus on the-fan comments related to the World Cup from to, and determine that the Brazilian team has a large winning position by "giving each team an advantage.

Unlike Professor Hawking, the greatest physicist in our time, who used the World Cup championship formula to calculate the results of the competition, Yahoo gave the results because it was discussed by fans of the Light blog, as a result, the trend and expectations of more audience members are displayed. Each fan has a champion team in mind. sanba football is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people with strong strength and outstanding appreciation. After the Brazilian team beat Germany in a big score, the grief of the fans is also a proof. However, the results of the competition do not depend on the votes of hundreds of millions of viewers, but the performance of more than a dozen people on the court. As Professor Hawking said, football is much more complicated than quantum mechanics.

Yahoo prediction is a very useful attempt in any case. In areas where fans tend to determine results, similar research can be helpful for companies to study the market and consumer needs.

Yahoo's research on the results of the World Cup may lead to more thoughts: for example, can big data, which has been hyped up recently, predict the future? Some industry colleagues and analysts believe that data can reveal patterns and help people and enterprises predict results. Others believe that big data is useless and superstitious about big data.

As a developer in this field, my point is between the two.

Big Data reveals associations and phenomena, not Regularity and NatureThe so-called "knowing but not knowing why" is exactly the result of big data analysis. A wide-spread business school case shows that beer and diapers are sold in store data. A survey found that this is a tendency for a young father to bring beer to his private goods when his wife is assigned to buy baby products. If it is limited to the distribution Association, the store may simply put the two types of goods together, and learn about the model behind the phenomenon, you can carry out more targeted promotions.

That is to say,Big data can provide valuable clues, but cannot replace artificial research-for example, exploring the hidden logic behind the consumer behavior chain at the scene.If you are interested, you can read the book brand brainwashing, a senior marketer who lists many vivid but shocking examples: Modern Marketing is so pervasive. For example, marketing starts before a person is born. The background music of a store that pregnant women often go to has the effect of stopping the baby.

These cases are often supported by research data. Although they may not reach the big data level, they are already quite sophisticated, including scanning the tester's brain with MRI.

People who are extremely optimistic or pessimistic about Big Data regard big data as an extension of the traditional marketing model.. The music-watching school is eager to find a "big killer" to "Seduce" and control consumers perfectly. The pessimism is more rational-it is absolutely necessary. Excessive marketing will lead to consumer resistance and use the big data analysis results to strengthen the originally pervasive marketing. Is this really a good thing?

In my opinion, it is difficult to predict and control consumer behavior. It is said that in the post-War publication of the Book Existence and nothingness, publishers are not optimistic about the sales volume of this masterpiece, and they must support cultural undertakings, however, the sales score is much higher than expected. The publisher was surprised to find that the metal had been searched out during the war, and vendors lacked the opportunity to replace it with a variety of items. Some unknown vendors found that the weight of the book was exactly a pound, as a result, vendors generally purchase and act as zookeeper.

In this story, big data analysis cannot accurately predict this application situation. However, we can do this. When consumers use books to use such whimsy, big data can immediately recommend "Existence and nothingness" to them. Since it is difficult for consumers to predict and control, it is better to use big data to observe and summarize group behavior associations in specific situations. On the one hand, it is more modest and earnest to communicate with individual consumers, stick customers with a prudent and Persistent attitude and better products and services, rather than just focusing on marketing.

All in all,Although big data can improve the accuracy of prediction to a large extent, it can only make the Products and Services excellent enterprises stronger, but it cannot save those enterprises with fatal defects..

Big data is only possible, not omnipotent?