A number of institutions are expected to narrow the annual trade surplus

Most brokerage analysts expect exports to increase by more than 20% per cent year-on-year in March, but uncertainties still constrain the prospects for a trade recovery.  With imports growing faster than exports, March may be a trade deficit, and the annual surplus will shrink. Export recovery remains shaky CITIC Securities macro strategy analyst Wang that March export growth may be between 22% to 25%.  Dongxiangan, an industrial securities macro analyst, expects exports to grow 25% per cent year-on-year in March, with imports growing 60.1% per cent year-on-year. According to the information by the Chinese Securities News reporter from the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the enterprises generally reflect the continuous growth of foreign trade demand, and the order began to rise markedly in the second half of 2009. Some business orders have been in the second half of the year, and capacity utilization reached the same level as 2008.  As the export-leading indicators of processing trade import growth is continuing, and the new export Order index has been stable in the expansion region for 10 consecutive months, there is no sign of slowing exports.  Jianghai Securities analyst Li Huan that in China's major export markets, the U.S. manufacturing sector has warmed up, some European countries debt crisis pressure relatively moderate, ASEAN economic performance better, external demand rebound will stimulate the rapid growth of China's exports. However, there are also many analysis that the export recovery uncertainty is still large, the rebound momentum is not stable.    Hongyuan Securities analyst Chen Menggen pointed out that on the one hand, the new export order index is relatively volatile, and not necessarily a trend, there may be repeated; On the other hand, the international economic rebalancing of the voice is higher, against China's trade frictions, RMB appreciation pressure is also greater, not conducive to China's export stability rebound. The annual surplus size narrowed, Commerce Minister Chen Deming said March 21, China's foreign trade may be a deficit in March. Some analysts believe that the deficit may be 8 billion dollars.  And Vice minister Chen Jian said April 2, as imports surged, as of mid-March data showed that China may appear a small trade deficit month. The trade deficit in March had a foreshadowing. The balance of trade surplus has been declining for the past six months, and since January 2009, the quarter-on-quarter trend has been higher than the export season, but the gap between the two has narrowed since December 2009.  It is pointed out that due to the rapid growth of imports in the last four months, the trade surplus has been shrinking significantly. The import index in the March PMI index was larger than the export order index, reflecting a sharp increase in domestic demand growth and imports. The March Import Order index was 53.7%, up 4.6% from last month.  The index has remained above 50% per cent since August last year, except for February this year. Chen Menggen said that imports were on the rise, showing that domestic demand was still strong and that the economic upturn was continuing to consolidate, and that China's appropriate increase in imports would help to promote trade restructuring and ease the pressure on the renminbi to appreciate. Dongxiangan that a temporary trade deficit is expected in March, but will remain in surplus for the year, beginningStep estimated at 137.5 billion dollars, lower than last year.