Aging increasingly severe part of the city or relaxing child

Hu Haiyun Jinliang at the Shanghai Population and Family Planning conference yesterday, Xielingli, director of the Shanghai Population Planning Commission, said the "Eleven-Five" period, the Shanghai "Aging" and "little child" coexist at the same time, the age structure imbalance. As one of the earliest countries to implement family planning, Shanghai's population transition process is faster than the national 10-20 years. The aging of Shanghai's social security, medical care, pension, and so bring great pressure.　　Many experts therefore believe that the adjustment of population policies in the increasingly ageing areas has become necessary.　　Zhou Haiwang, deputy director of the Institute of Population and Development, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, told the first financial daily reporter that last year, Shanghai, Zhejiang and provinces declared a population policy adjustment program, in which Shanghai was a "separate child" scheme. The proportion of the adolescent population is seriously low Shanghai is one of the earliest family planning areas in the country, since 1979 has entered the aging population, 1993, the registered population of natural changes in the negative growth stage.　　Since 2004, the growth rate of the 15~59岁 registered working-age population in Shanghai has slowed down for 4 consecutive years, with negative growth in 2007, and a negative growth of the working-age population in the country's first provincial administrative region, with only 0.03% growth in 2008. Figures released yesterday show a further increase in the level of ageing in Shanghai: the proportion of elderly people aged 60 and older in the Shanghai household population has increased from 19.58% in 2005 to 2009 years of 22.54%. At the same time, the proportion of the population of the city's household population (0~14岁) is severely low.　　2009 accounted for only 8.3%, less than half of 1992 (1992 to 17.7%), below the national 10.2%.　　Future expectations are even more pessimistic: Shanghai's population aging in the "Twelve-Five" will enter the accelerated development period, an average annual net increase of 200,000 people, especially from 2013 onwards, the new elderly mouth more than 80% will be the only child parents, the aging of the pressure is unprecedented.　　The deepening of aging and the decrease of the number of working-age workers make Shanghai's old age dependency rate rise rapidly, social security pressure intensified, old-age medical care and old-age pension problems protruding.　　According to data released by the Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau, the "old age dependency factor" reached 32.6% in Shanghai in 2009, indicating that every three workers in Shanghai need to support nearly one elderly person. But Ninguan, deputy director of the Fudan Institute of Population Studies, told reporters that China's demographic dividend period will not disappear soon, as the proportion of the working-age population begins to decline, but the total number of working-age population will not fall, will continue to remain stable until 2025, if the timely increase in the retirement age,　　The total working-age population will not fall until 2030.　　Relaxing child slowing aging trend? One major obstacle to the ageing of the population is the low birth rate. However, the data show that, "Eleven-Five" period, the total fertility rate of the city's registered population of childbearing age is only 0.87, far below2.1 Generation turnover level.　　In this year's national two sessions, some members proposed that in the country has been widely implemented "double alone child" on the basis of the first trial in some cities "husband and wife one child family can have a second child" (separate child) policy to minimize the population risk of individual families. Recently, Guangdong Province Population and Family Planning Commission, Guangdong is actively seeking to allow "separate child" pilot.　　The story of Outlook Oriental Magazine quotes a person close to the National Family Planning Commission as saying at present, "child policy liberalization" path has a general direction, will choose from the "separate child" start, and in the 3~4 of lower fertility provinces pilot, and the pilot of the relevant regulations will be approved by provincial People's Congress in the pilot provinces. Ninguan also believes that the country's reproductive policy should be further liberalized in due course, such as child completely liberalized, including the gradual realization of autonomous childbearing.　　But he also stressed that the process must be a rational, progressive, step-by-step process.　　Ninguan to reporters that, in contrast to the double alone child, child will relax the policy of fertility, and increase the total population can bear the proportion of child.　　However, Ninguan said that if the Shanghai pilot "alone child" does not affect Shanghai's overall stability of ultra-low fertility levels, because the population will be very low fertility.　　Zhou Haiwang also said that Shanghai has been for many years in the registered population 94%~95% birth a child, in fact, the current hukou population in Shanghai are mostly only children married, has been in line with the policy requirements of reproductive child, but in line with the policy of many unwilling to bear the child. Ninguan also said fertility policies are not a fundamental solution to the problem of ageing and shrinking working-age populations.　　Only by increasing the labor productivity level can we support the aging society. But to solve the problem of long-term population structure in China, the direction of fertility policy adjustment may be correct. The later the adjustment of the fertility policy, the greater the pressure on the future demographic structure, which may be more passive.