April credit is expected to be 700 billion yuan in the two quarter of new loans or mild slowdown

Next week will usher in a April of intense macroeconomic data, with credit data being lowered by major institutions to two-quarter growth. Industrial Bank economist Lu County, said the April credit may be slightly lower than 700 billion yuan, UBS China's chief economist Wang Tao's forecast is more conservative, that the April net new loans of about 500 billion to 600 billion yuan　　CICC, in its latest report, also said April new loans were falling between 500 billion and 600 billion yuan.　　The industry's expectations of new loans are closely related to the State Council's heavy-handed regulation of property markets: In the April 15 and 17th, the State Council issued a continuous report on the issue of high prices, the exceptionally sensitive stock market in April 19, the first to 150 points of the plunge to respond to this expectation, and thus formally opened the domestic investment　　According to the latest institutions, bankers believe that if April can be controlled at this level, will undoubtedly release a certain amount of space for the 5 June credit. With 34% of the year's credit lines being used in the first quarter, according to the "3322" ratio required by the regulatory level,　　In the second quarter of the total amount of new credit has 2.25 trillion yuan space, if the credit growth in April only about 680 billion yuan, then the remaining two months of new loans will still have 1.57 trillion yuan credit space. On the other hand, as regulators tighten their grip on new credit, commercial banks are beginning to evade regulation by selling credit-type wealth-management products that move credit assets from the table to the table. Market participants estimate that up to now, the scale of credit-type financial products has been as high as 1.6 trillion yuan. "It is not ruled out that some banks will make a large amount of credit-management products when they are able to bring credit-type financial products into the table," the regulator said.　　Insiders said. Not just credit data, the PMI has slowed as a leading economic indicator, said Qu Hongbin, China's chief economist and head of economic research in the Asia-Pacific region: "Despite a slight slowdown in the service purchasing Managers ' index, China's services sector has continued to grow strongly and continue to improve the labour market." This will provide more room for the government to slow down infrastructure investment to curb the risk of overheating. Chen Baixuan, general manager of East Asia China Wealth Management, said that the government's control of the real estate market unexpectedly severe, the follow-up policy will be introduced all over the real estate, there has been a shrinking of the real estate transactions, housing prices will be a big probability event. "In the stock market, the recent adjustment of the real estate sector has been to some extent digested the impact of the policy, but a shares of about 70% of the industry and the real estate sector-related, coupled with the tightening of monetary policy concerns, a-share market will also be under pressure in the near future." "Chen Baixuan said.