Brzezinski: China will become a global power in the near future

Feng Yu Qingz Bignyev Brzezinski is the most important senior think-tank and strategist in the United States today, even without "one". The National Security Advisor to the US President, Carter, played a pivotal role in all directions of American diplomacy. The establishment of diplomatic ties, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the upheaval in Eastern Europe and the transformation of Afghanistan have all left a mark of his involvement in policy making.　　His most famous book, The Great Chess Game: America's Primacy and geostrategic, is a testament to the geo-strategists ' vision and insight into America's position in the world. In the winter of 2010, the first financial daily reporter met him at the Senior Institute of International Studies in Washington. The 82-Year-old thought Agile, hale and hearty, fast speed, a blue suit, appear tall and strong, in addition to the skin shows signs of aging, "gas field" is still very strong.　　His work is very fast, just meet with the reporter said there is a General Assembly needs him to preside over, the question best short. Brzezinski is different from the general Democrats ' pigeon stance. He has always been famous for his hawkish style in foreign policy. His graduation thesis, published at the age of more than 20, predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union.　　Brzezinski, who served on the State Council's Policy planning committee in 1960, elaborated a strategy to disrupt the Soviet bloc with peaceful evolution and persuaded President Johnson to use peaceful evolution as an American foreign strategy in 1966. The 780 's was the peak of Brzezinski's participation in the formulation of foreign policy.　　His direct involvement has led to the formation of the Trilateral Commission, a body of North America, Europe and Japan, which is committed to more closely consolidating U.S.-Japan-European relations in response to the "Communist world". Working at the White House, Brzezinski stressed the use of human rights as a weapon against the ideology of the Soviet bloc, pushing Israel to reach a peace agreement with Egypt, actively supporting the Polish Solidarity Union, supporting Afghanistan's resistance to Soviet aggression, and secretly supporting the national independence movement within the Soviet Union.　　After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, he was committed to NATO eastward expansion, while promoting Russian and western exchanges. Brzezinski and China are deeply rooted. He was directly involved in the process of establishing diplomatic ties with China. He has met with Deng Xiaoping many times as special Envoy of Carter.　　Finally, on December 15, 1978, China and the United States announced formal diplomatic relations on New Year's Day. He has always believed that China-US relations are stable and positive. For the United States, China-US relations are among the most important of the three or four bilateral relations.　　He argued that China and the United States should take a cooperative stance on major international issues such as North Korea. In its own system, Brzezinski is most concerned about America's global dominance, whether it is to disrupt the Soviet Union or to befriend China, and to serve the global strategy of the United States. How to Make America's global status not decline is the core proposition of Brzezinski diplomacy.　　He has urged the United States to play the leading role of the world on the basis of the alliance, against unilateralism, which would undermine America's global credibility and isolate the United States. Brzezinski in numerous writings, the Decline of America's global power will eventually be inevitable. The beginningThe financial crisis in the United States has dealt a heavy blow to America's power, system and popular mentality, making such threats appear.　　In an interview with this reporter, looking forward to 2011, he said that the U.S. strength may continue to be affected, but he also reminded China "not to be dazzled by victory."　　To ensure that the Korean peninsula does not have the worst case. First financial daily: North Korea is a huge test for both China and the US, and what is the risk of Sino-US relations as the conflict escalates? Brzezinski: I think the deterioration in U.S.-China relations is a possible risk.　　It can be imagined that if there is a resurgence of instability between the two Koreas, the peace in this region will mean something to the relationship between China and the United States and the two countries. If there is a real military conflict in the region, it will not only be the concern of the United States and China, but Japan and Russia will also be extremely concerned. We will see a very serious international conflict.　　So for the two countries involved, make sure there is no worst-case scenario.　　Daily: Do you think that in northeast Asia, Sino-US cooperation or confrontation? Brzezinski: The United States should not be confrontational against China. A great deal of hostility from both sides is neither in the United States nor in China's interests. It is important for us not to face the difficult situation of reconciliation, that is, to make the choice of confrontation between one side and the other.　　In fact, confronting the conflict is not only damaging to the United States, but also to China's interests and to the interests of the entire region and even the international system as a whole. I think the United States and China should have a dialogue, and I am delighted that President Obama finally made a phone call with President Hu Jintao (on 6th on Sino-US relations and the situation on the Korean peninsula). It's good, actually I hope they can talk a few days earlier, but it's always good to go forward.　　Now, the avoidance of conflict is a common interest of both China and the United States, even though we have different interpretations on certain issues. Daily: The Heads of State of China and the United States did have a dialogue, but 13th genius after the incident. A New York Times article said: "The lack of cooperation on North Korea is a sign of deteriorating relations between the two countries."　　"What do you think of that?" Brzezinski: I don't know how they (The New York Times) came up with such a conclusion, but I do hope they (the heads of State of China and the United States) would immediately exchange views.　　I suggested that President Obama call President Hu. The rapid expansion of Sino-US relations brings complexity daily: Summing up China-US relations over the past few years, many people think that President Obama sought a closer Sino-US relationship at the beginning of his presidency, but now it is in the opposite direction.　　In the past year, China-US relations have not been as peaceful as people hoped. Brzezinski: I think this is because the scale of the bilateral relationship is rapidly expanding, and the scale often brings complexity. This underlines what I went to Beijing a year ago: we must have an informal but direct high-level strategic dialogue.　　President Hu is scheduled to visit the United States next January, and I think this is a unique opportunity for two leaders to define basic principles to guide our relationship. Daily: How to understand ObamaPresident Ma under the leadership of America's Asian strategy?　　If you use the current popular "America Back to Asia" to define, do you agree?　　Brzezinski: I do not think it is a return to Asia, I think it is to acknowledge the fact that Asia's importance to international affairs has never been stronger. Asia is always important, but for a while, in history, Asia is the object rather than the subject of western policy. It is now clear that Asia and the West are becoming the center of the world-both in the economic and political spheres.　　It also means that the relationship between China and the United States is more important, but also more complicated.　　Daily: From the overall strategy of the United States, do you think the United States will favor the Atlantic basin in the United States and Europe direction, or will be biased towards the Pacific basin in the Asian direction? Brzezinski: I think both. If you look at the map, the United States has coastlines in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and the ocean is a way to expand outward.　　So the United States goes to Europe and Asia. But we recognize that the United States is not in a position to rule the world, the United States is actively involved in the world. I think President Obama understands this very well.　　But it also needs to be stressed that we should talk in a constructive way, rather than conflict with Europe or Asia.　　The common interests of China and the United States first are geo-stability daily: what are the common interests of China and the United States in Asia? Brzezinski: Our common interests, first and foremost, are geopolitical stability. If there is unrest, both China and the United States will suffer.　　That is why we are not indifferent to what is happening on the Korean peninsula. Second, China and the United States have overlapping interests in the global financial and economic system. Part of the reason is that both China and the United States are economically well developed and have a stake in the stability and success of the national economic system.　　And there is a great opportunity for cooperation between the United States and China to use this success to help those areas where socio-economic development and modernization are relatively backward.　　Daily News: Does the rise of China conflict with America's interests in Asia? Brzezinski: It depends on whether China's rise is associated with conflict, and how much. On the other hand, China can be an important force for stability and peace, which means willing to take responsibility. China must decide how to become a powerful nation and contribute to world peace. China should not be afraid of being responsible.　　Some responsibilities are difficult, but they can be shared with others. Daily: Your big chess book mentions that China should naturally be an ally of the United States in Asia.　　Do you still think so? Brzezinski: I mean the Asian continent, and Japan is the island of the Pacific. China has emerged on the Asian continent as an energetic and modern country. But Japan has been like this for decades, although Japan is growing more slowly and becoming "old". Indonesia is also on the rise. So I think there will be a difference in the ability and degree of the United States to develop relations with mainland and island countries.　　I think this necessary difference is to be acknowledged.　　Daily: If U.S.-China relations deteriorate, will the United States and Japan, the United States and South Korea to strengthen the alliance between? Brzezinski: If we have to make a choice, we have to observe the geopoliticalWhich country has a closer relationship with us?　　But I think it is best not to make such a choice. The distribution of power among different countries is changing daily: in your other book, Big Choice, you say that China can only be a regional powerhouse, not a global power, even if it maintains stable economic growth and internal political stability.　　Do you still think so? Brzezinski: China is a regional power and I don't think we can be a global power in the near future.　　There can be two, three or four global powers. If Europe were to be truly integrated, it would be a global power. If Russia can regain its power and modernize, it can also become a global power. India also has the possibility. China already has the characteristics of a global power in manufacturing and urbanization. I think there should be no obstacle for China to become a global power.　　It will pursue effective and responsible policies both nationally and internationally, and understand the responsibility of strength.　　Daily: What do you think of the status of America, the United States is the only superpower? Brzezinski: Of course, the United States is now, thirty or forty years later will be. It depends on what happens in the world and what happens in America.　　The American people have the intelligence, the determination and the accomplishment to maintain the leading strength in creativity.　　Daily: Is America's strength declining? Brzezinski: I don't think America's strength is falling, in fact the strength of other countries is rising. This has changed the distribution of strength among different countries.　　But as it stands, it is hard to imagine any other country capable of owning the United States in the near future.　　The American people are determined to stay ahead, and maybe we can hold on to that.　　Daily: How did the economic crisis affect America's global strength? Brzezinski: America may be affected. If I sneeze and everyone sneezes, it doesn't mean I'm more vulnerable. Some countries began by saying that the crisis began in America, but only in America. In fact, everyone is having problems. This shows the interdependence of the world.　　If this is a crisis in the United States, then all people are affected.　　Daily News: The crisis has made Americans very worried about China's rise. Brzezinski: Since the Communist Party is China's ruling party, perhaps I can cite Lenin in 1920 to remind other communist countries of an article, "Victory Carried Away": "Don't Lose your way, don't be dazzled by victory." "I think some Chinese people should read this article when they talk about the future," he said.