Can the short distance electronic commerce rise again

How to break through the single delivery margin and logistics cost between the critical point, the decision is short distance e-commerce can rise again.

In these months, there are more than 10 VC to find a quick bag CEO Xu Zhiming chat. As a "short logistics" model to transplant to E-commerce, one of the main test water, he thought fast-schoolbags this rapid delivery of E-commerce model, capital is closely concerned.

This form comes not just from the online bookstore, which sells bestsellers and magazines, but also a group of young entrepreneurs is speeding up its business in the form of short e-commerce. Cluster Services Haidian University District Me2 Campus Network Supermarket, from Huating and wangjing two blocks of food e-commerce flying home, there are focused on the famous residential district of the neighbour Taste, 9M ...

In fact, the core of the short distance e-commerce, is the form of self-construction logistics in different regions to set up a number of warehouses to shorten the last kilometer of e-commerce distance and time. This model is different from the "all-inclusive" and "vertical" of the electronic Commerce website, and the formation of E-commerce traditional logistics model transformation. Consumers buy items from the next single to door-to-door only 1 hours, it is said that the fastest can even reach 9 minutes.

On the one hand is the improvement of consumer requirements, on the other hand, E-commerce and express the tangle between the relationship, many E-commerce companies began to consider their own to do the last kilometer. It seems that the self-built logistics is only a big E-commerce company's strategic needs, but in the future, will be refined logistics, from the "whole" to "local" thinking will bring new opportunities.

But think about it, the concept of "short logistics" is not so innovative. Many people hear a bucket of noodles, a book will be delivered 1 hours, will associate the years ago E country 1 hours from the pioneer into the story of the martyrs: 10,000 kinds of goods long product line, very low customer unit price goods, customers poor concentration, margin is too low and so on, once the model everywhere fatal. But after 10 years of development, how will these new challengers respond? Is this crazy model an opportunity or an adventure?

Single margin PK logistics cost

July 6, 2010, Han Cold's "solo Regiment" listed-this later became a milestone in the history of the Fast Bag day, the day of a total of 1600 orders. "But our distribution capacity is only 600 orders." Xu Zhiming recalls.

Fortunately, this "single incident" also allows the fast schoolbag to see its own potential capacity and peak data: The day 30 of the distribution staff sent 600 single, per capita daily delivery volume can reach 20. But after "The solo Regiment", the quick schoolbag is very difficult to reproduce such prosperity, now Beijing 1 days order quantity only more than 100 single, the country altogether more than 200 orders. Xu Zhiming said, fast schoolbags really "eat not enough", distribution capacity and the number of orders are not saturated.

This is an embarrassing cycle, because the biggest challenge of short distance e-business is that rapid delivery of the model so that the possibility of a single pressure reduction, especially in the early period of user accumulation, you can not calculate how long to accumulate more than the second order, so every single must be shipped, which creates a very high logistics costs. At this time, a single delivery margin and logistics costs in the game will appear a critical point, how to break it is the key to profitability.

In fact, in the Xu Zhiming business logic, how to balance the single distribution of gross profit and logistics costs, has a very simple algorithm. Take the current situation of fast schoolbags as an example:

A distribution of 1 days can be sent to 20 single, Beijing, a total of 20 distribution staff, the country 40, and the current fast schoolbags average customer price in 67 yuan, the ideal state is about 80 yuan. From the category, fast schoolbag mainly engaged in Book magazine, discount rate of about 75 percent to 85 percent, from the General publishing house procurement in 50 percent to 65 percent, accounting down, the average gross margin of the book in 15%-20%, the magazine's profit is higher.

At the lowest 15% gross margin calculation, multiplied by 80 yuan customer unit price to produce 12 yuan of gross margin, a distribution clerk if send 20 orders a day, have 240 yuan gross profit. The average distribution of the remuneration of 100 yuan/day, means to send 8 single to be able to flat their own costs, if the company's various marketing and warehouse costs, more than 14 to be possible to amortize the entire company's costs.

The early period is obviously a loss of the state, and the premise of this estimate is that "short logistics" players are mostly not large-scale marketing, free watercress Weibo marketing, Low-cost campus marketing and some food sites used to push the line of marketing, have greatly depressed the marketing costs.

Before this, the quick schoolbag of the warehouse form is family-centric, to find 30 people to do in Beijing Courier, their home is a small warehouse, but this method soon encountered to a certain area can not recruit people's bottleneck. "Now, we start merging large areas and renting the warehouse directly." Xu Zhiming the warehouse from 30 to 10. A single site is 5 km by 5 km, can cover more than 20 square kilometers, the average delivery time is normal 40 minutes.

This model has a well-established model in the traditional fast-food industry. For a long time, Xu Zhiming daily work is to different McDonald's doorway to the camping, see how many non-delivery to go out in a day to send. Because the McDonald's cloth is too many, the density is extremely big, "at that time people's performance actually came out". McDonald's by piecework outsourcing delivery, the basic distribution process is: 1 minutes to order, 3 minutes with the completion, 20 minutes delivery, only one shop a day of orders in 100-170, water increased nearly million.

McDonald's has unlimited users. Only the front-end to accumulate enough of the next single user, is to break the threshold of the king. But this is back to a user and traffic paradox, no marketing costs, it is difficult to quickly accumulate front-end users, if vigorously put into marketing, the cost structure will change.

But Xu Zhiming still insists that the ideal state of the future is to continue the reverse dismantling of the station in the case of a total area not expanding. Take CBD as an example, from Changan Street to Chaoyang Park, there is only one station, order quantity if come up, the site will be demolished into 2, equivalent to each station covering 10 square kilometers, almost all can arrive in half an hour. Zhongguancun Station is doing so, delivery is much faster.

According to the operating situation in different periods, the extensive warehouse-collection and reduction warehouse-the path of the expansion warehouse also occurred in the campus E-commerce. Me2 Campus Network Supermarket currently covers 8 colleges and universities, founder Pilly told reporters that they have also experienced the adjustment of the warehouse and increase or decrease, "high order processing costs are short logistics development of a ridge." Me2 's strategy is to optimize the delivery time, in the same short distance, there are three kinds of time to choose: 1 hours, 3 hours, half a day, after both can accumulate enough orders to a certain extent to amortize the logistics cost of a single distribution.

The practice of flying House is more traditional, warehouse store integration, open store retail and door-to-door, only to have a point of the regional commitment to fast delivery, other areas to achieve differentiated delivery services. "Not all areas need to be delivered quickly, we just want to give the user area that is willing to enjoy fast delivery a little bit faster, cheaper, in key lines (ITC line, Zhongguancun Line), our distribution has a clear speed advantage," said Fei Li, founder of the house. ”

Fast and punctual

VC most often asked Xu Zhiming 3 questions: Has anyone in the United States done? What are the core competencies and space? How do you and when, excellence PK?

The first question, Xu Zhiming with the help of the Netizen paper sushi found the answer. On the Seattle Street of 2000, the well-dressed Kozmo delivery staff were seen at any time, according to Xu Zhiming, a short distance E-commerce company that also advertised a 1-hour delivery, with the main business being video rentals, groceries and food.

Later, the company got an investment in Amazon, SoftBank and Starbucks, and later expanded to 9 cities, 2 of which were profitable. "There is no problem with their business model and market demand, just because of the late expansion and the collapse of the dotcom bubble, the company eventually went bankrupt." "Xu Zhiming said.

In fact, short-distance e-commerce is only a vertical point of entry, its concept is also hidden under a set of "Time" logic.

Compare fast schoolbags and all kinds of food day-like supermarket-type websites, you will find that despite the rapid arrival, but the category of books and food is actually very big difference. For food, the primary demand for consumers is immediate, "I'm going to have a chocolate now. The demand for speed is very strong.

This also results in a completely different reference for two of players. The reference of the quick Schoolbag is when, excellence, it needs to find new breakthroughs and opportunities in addition to the traditional logistics model, while the Flying House is not a reference for me to buy a net, a store, but downstairs small shop or small supermarket, because relative to the immediate demand, where more readily available.

Therefore, fast distribution and cheap price is a good strategy. The network supermarket has the purchase superiority than the buffet, can form the large quantity purchase to reduce the cost relatively.

Short distance is a concept of space, but the real situation is that the end consumers do not care where your warehouse, there are several, consumers are concerned about the time, "when my goods arrive?" And for fast schoolbags such as not immediate demand category, is a kind of "speed" outside of "punctual" demand-let time controllable is short logistics deeper nature. At this stage, the problem of E-commerce has risen to the need for punctuality, consumers have not want to hear "quick words tomorrow morning, slow words a few days", but hope "I only 4 to 5 points at home, this period must be sent to."

Xu Zhiming told reporters that the fast schoolbag has more than 20% of the order is the customer's own appointment time, "every customer is also promoting their own booking services, which is the great progress of E-commerce, but also short distance e-commerce opportunities."

Of course, just as 7-11 how to challenge Wal-Mart has never been a topic, they are simply different business. In Xu Zhiming's view, when, excellence is difficult to do, first short logistics for when, excellent, they do e-commerce is to meet the needs of consumers long tail, and so many SKU is difficult to "get up", and the second is, do so bones, do not bring them increment.

Although this is a model that has not been validated successfully, short distance e-business has been standing on an important time node. At the moment, Xu Zhiming has moved the model of the fast schoolbag to 6 cities, such as Flying House, Me2 and other sites will continue to open their own logistics distribution points in different regions.