China's high generation panel line expands to create overcapacity crisis

is expected

Mainland China is becoming the fastest-growing region in the global LCD panel.

October 25, Samsung Suzhou 8.5 line completed; the same day, Tcl announced that Huaxing will invest 24.4 billion yuan in Shenzhen and a 8.5-generation line. With the opening and commissioning of several new lines, China is expected to account for 40% of the global 8.5 generation line capacity in two years ' period. The risk of structural overcapacity is in stark contrast to the growing demand for growth, which is not optimistic.

Recently, the "First financial daily" reporter from Samsung (China) learned that October 25 Samsung show the company held 8.5 generation line LCD factory "Suzhou Samsung lcd (SSL)" of the completion ceremony. Although it is expected that the Suzhou Samsung LCD will be put into production in the fourth quarter of this year, when the quarter can reach 10,000 pieces of 2200㎜x2500mm glass substrate, but Samsung (China) concerned people to our correspondent said that the project production time to be determined.

Coincidentally。 On the same day, Tcl also announced that Huaxing will invest 24.4 billion yuan in Shenzhen to launch a 8.5-generation line, will introduce oxide semiconductor technology, the future will have both the production capacity of AMOLED panels.

Tcl disclosed in the announcement that Huaxing photoelectric second 8.5 generation line, the design capacity for the monthly production of 2500mmx2200mm glass substrate 100,000 pieces, of which amorphous silicon semiconductor glass substrate input volume of 70,000 pieces/month; oxide semiconductor glass substrate input of 30,000 pieces/month (partly used to produce OLED TV panel )。 The new project is expected to start construction at the end of 2013 and put into production in the third quarter of 2015 After the completion of the project, it is expected to increase the supply of more than 10 million LCD panels each year.

In recent years, China has planned and built several 8.5-generation LCD panel lines. In addition to the production line, Beijing-Orient, huaxing two 8.5-generation line has been completed and put into production, the BoE will also be in Hefei, Chongqing construction of two new lines, the CLP Panda combined Sharp in Nanjing investment a line, LG in Guangzhou 8.5 generation line is also in the construction.

Display search predicts that the next two years, China's 8.5 generation line capacity (to input the number of substrates) will be from the four quarter of 2013 monthly 250,000, up to 2015 years of the Four seasons of 670,000 per month. This means that in two years, China's 8.5 generation line capacity will increase by more than 260%, in the global 8.5 generation line of total capacity will rise from the current 19% to 2015 years of the Four Seasons 39%.

However, on the one hand, the rapid expansion of LCD panel production capacity, on the other hand, the domestic color TV market demand decline.

Allwin Consulting (AVC) data show that since the end of May this year, the domestic color TV market, the situation has plummeted. In June this year, domestic color TV sales fell by about 20% per cent year-on-year; July year-on-year decline of more than 10%; August sales were slightly higher, but prices and profits are falling; September fell more than 10%; "11" National Day holiday, domestic color TV sales fell for the first time in ten years.

Allwin Consulting Forecast, the fourth quarter of 2013 domestic color TV sales of 12.72 million units, will be down 2.8% year-on-year. However, as a result of the first half of this year's big increase of 30%, 2013 China's overall color TV sales up to 46.72 million units, will continue to grow 10%. But in 2014, domestic color TV sales were expected to be 45.64 million, down 2% from 2013.

"The entire Chinese color TV industry, from the second half of this year to next year will enter the consolidation period." "Allwin Consulting Flat Division general Manager Chuang Analysis.

Li Yachen, the research Director of Group Intelligence Consulting, told our correspondent that the fourth quarter's demand for Chinese-branded TV panels is expected to fall 6.4% Year-on-year, while global demand will fall 7.5% per cent year-on-year. She said domestic panels should prevent structural overcapacity.

According to group intelligence monitoring, from the end of the second quarter of this year, TV panel prices have fallen for four consecutive months, the expected price decline will continue to the beginning of the four quarter.

At the same time, the fourth quarter of this year to 2014 the first half of the new panel capacity will be opened. Li Yachen predicts that the four-quarter 48-inch panel supply will grow by nearly 30%, 55 inches to the quarter-on-quarter growth of 12%, and is expected to continue to climb in the first quarter of next year, which will make the price war in the 46~55 inch more intense, and exacerbate the overall downward trend of panel prices next year.

Last year, China raised tariffs on panel imports from 3% to 5%. Li Yachen is expected to further increase tariffs on panels in the mainland next year.