Chinese grain yield or cyclical inflection point

May 30, Peking University and Waseda University held an international symposium on "Sino-Japanese agricultural policy comparison under the background of globalization".　　Guoqiang, deputy director of the Institute of Market Economics at the State Council's Development Research Center, said China's food production could enter a new wave cycle and that the task of ensuring food supplies could be even more daunting in the future.　　Cannot rely on foreign exchange to solve food Guoqiang said China's food production could achieve a sixth consecutive year of harvest this year, but it is worth noting that food production may also enter a new wave cycle, and that the task of securing food supplies in the coming years could be even more daunting.　　Earlier, the Agriculture Minister Sun May 25 in Henan, said that if no major natural disasters, China's summer total production is expected to achieve a sixth consecutive year of production increase, which will create 60 years summer annual income increase in new records. Guoqiang that China's food supply and demand has a ten-year cycle, which is sure to sometimes harvest crops, sometimes production, but the overall balance. "If food production peaked in 1998, then food production fell for five consecutive years, reaching a trough in 2003, and from 2004 to 2009, China's grain production turned into 6 consecutive years of increase." "Guoqiang said:" Our research shows that China's food supply security, has a strong endogenous characteristics, food supply must mainly rely on domestic production to solve. Even if we have more foreign exchange, we cannot expect to rely on imports to solve our eating problems. "Food security is facing five major problems," Guoqiang stressed, "The food problem is the foundation of China's economic development, social stability and national security, and is a major strategic issue in the overall relationship." He pointed out that China's current food security faced with the following five major problems: First, China's population growth, urbanization, industrialization will promote China's food demand is a rigid growth trend. Industrialization and urbanization are unavoidable, which means that the pressure to reduce arable land will become more and more great.　　By 2020, China's per capita consumption of food will reach 790 kg, the total demand will be at least 11450 kg. Second, China's arable land, fresh water and other agricultural resources to food production constraints, increase the efficiency of low, more difficult to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers production, to promote the steady development of food production, to ensure the balance of food supply and demand increased pressure.　　To meet the demand for food consumption, China will be at least a yearly yield increase of more than 0.7%, but this is very difficult from the technical speaking. Third, China's food supply is very strong endogenous, extroversion is insufficient. China's important rice rations, the world's annual trade volume of less than 30 million tons, less than 20% of domestic consumption.　　Therefore, the lack of outward orientation of China's grain supply and the limited space for increasing the supply of food in the international market must depend on themselves. The substitution of Chinese grain varieties is limited. China's grain demand is mainly based on ration, which accounts for 50% of total grain consumption and less than 45% of processing.　　The higher the proportion of direct consumption, the worse the substitution, the more difficult to solve the problem of food security. Five, China's food price volatility is strong. Due to direct consumption of rationsThe proportion is big, the substitution elasticity is small, most Chinese residents will still be very sensitive to the grain price. A rise in food prices could lead to a general rise in prices for other agricultural products in the short term.