Deutsche Bank today released a study to maintain a "buy" rating on Sina (Nasdaq:sina) shares and a 99 dollar target share price.
The main contents of the report are as follows:
Deutsche Bank to include Twitter in the research, initial rating "buy"
Our US Internet team today launched a research on Twitter, initially rated "buy" with a target of 50 dollars. Our American colleagues believe Twitter is the best listed company in the mobile Internet industry in the United States, with 76% of its traffic and 70% of its advertising revenue coming from mobile platforms. The initial rating report listed 4 reasons for "buy": 1 The average monthly number of users (MAU) growth is likely to accelerate again. 2. In the short term, various measures will be taken to enhance commercial capability. 3 The potential for Twitter's earnings (EBITDA) growth rate in the years ahead is huge. 4 Twitter features such as cards and TV amplify are good catalysts. The US team also listed 4 risks, including valuations, executive power, the possibility of not becoming mainstream, and the decline in user activity levels.
The similarity between Sina Weibo and Twitter
Like Twitter, most of the revenue from Sina Weibo comes from advertising, and future revenues are likely to grow exponentially (up more than 100% per cent). As Sina Weibo has already covered "key majority" users in the Chinese market (with more than 530 million registered accounts and a total of 591 million Chinese internet users), the growth in daily average users (DAU) has slowed in the past few quarters, similar to Twitter's. The number of active users on both platforms from the mobile end is over 70%.
Sina Weibo differs from Twitter (most of its revenues are still based on the PC side)
Sina Weibo's commercial model is different from Twitter's. Most of Twitter's revenue comes from a mobile-focused timeline advertising solution, while a large portion of Sina Weibo's advertising revenue still comes from display ads based on thousands of display costs. This is largely due to the fact that nearly 50% of Sina Weibo's third-quarter ad revenue came from cooperation with Alibaba (entirely based on the PC side). Recommended messages for action/experiential service advertising, mostly from SME advertisers, is still in its infancy, contributing only about 10% of advertising revenue in the third quarter, but with a fast growth rate of more than 100%. As a result, the mobile business contributed 20% to Sina Weibo's third-quarter ad revenue, down from Twitter's 70%.
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