Economic uncertainty increases monetary policy continued moderately loose

Mense Zhou Jingya "The world economy is gradually recovering, but there is still greater uncertainty", which is the consensus of the National Bureau of Statistics (hereinafter "the Bureau of Statistics") and the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central Bank"), which laid a key tone for macroeconomic policy in the second half.　　Yesterday, the central bank's official website announced the main contents of the Monetary Policy Committee's second quarter meeting this year, stressed that the continued implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, said the second half will pay close attention to the development of economic and financial situation, flexible use of a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain moderate growth in currency credit.　　"First Financial daily" reporter from the people in the know, the Bureau will also collect and calculate the first half of the economic operation data, and based on these data on the economic situation to make judgments and prospects, to submit policy recommendations to the State Council. The growth of the "dilemma" of the increase in the meeting content display, the Monetary Policy Committee of the central Bank has judged the current economic situation as follows: China's economic recovery to a good situation, consumption, investment, export-led economic growth and coordination, the economy is moving towards macro-control expectations, but the management of inflation expectations, maintain stable and rapid economic development,　　The task of restructuring the economic structure and transforming the way of economic development remains daunting. The statistics bureau's judgment of the current economic situation is basically consistent with that of the central bank.　　Bureau Director Jiantang at the meeting pointed out that the current macro-economy in China is in a critical period of recovery, macro-control is in the direction of the expected development, but in the international economic environment complex and changeable situation, the domestic economic operation of uncertainty and complexity increased.　　In fact, after a two-month decline in PMI data in June, the market's expectations for a slowdown in the second half of the year were more pronounced. The economic Situation Analysis Group of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently released a report that, starting in the second quarter of this year, economic growth in each quarter will fall 1% per cent from the previous quarter.　　With the economy growing at 11.9% in the first quarter, economic growth will remain above 10% per cent and the full-year GDP growth rate will reach 9.9%. "There is still a need to pay attention to the risk of a slowdown in economic growth, because the first two quarters of the economic rebound to a good foundation is not solid, a variety of domestic and foreign factors may be at the same time in the four quarter, the four-quarter economic growth rate may also be significantly increased."　　Liu Yuanchun, vice president of the Economic Institute of Renmin University of China, told our correspondent. In addition to worries about slowing economic growth, the complex economic situation has received more attention.　　Premier Wen Jiabao recently carried out intensive research, he repeatedly stressed that the current economic situation is extremely complex, macro-control facing the "dilemma" problem increased.　　The tone of the monetary policy does not change the macroeconomic situation may bring some pressure on the monetary regulatory authorities. "The two most important problems facing the current economy are whether real estate investment will fall sharply after the new deal, and whether the export situation will fall markedly in the four quarter."　　"Liu Yuanchun thinks. He said that the key to macro-control policy in the second half of the year is to put "positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy" into place, in stimulating politicalThe structure and speed of exit should be adjusted, while the trade policy exit is more cautious.　　Yang Guozhong, director of the central bank's Business Administration, recently published a signed article in the latest issue of the central bank's journal China Finance, saying that China's active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy do not yet have the economic basis to adjust.　　In the post crisis period, China's monetary policy still needs to focus on the consolidation of economic recovery, and timely recovery of liquidity to prevent inflationary expectations from changing to real inflation, he said.　　In the second half of the monetary policy grasp, the central bank's Monetary Committee stressed in the second half to continue to implement moderately loose monetary policy, maintain the continuity and stability of policy, enhance the pertinence and flexibility of regulation, grasp the strength, rhythm and focus of policy implementation. "In the second half of this year or in the four quarter, macro policy at the operational level, the adjustment of the expected level of a certain degree of relaxation is likely to happen, but very radical relaxation probability is small."　　"The three quarter is expected to be a policy vacuum or an observation period," the letter said in its report. On the exchange rate issue, the central bank's monetary policy Committee at the regular meeting pointed out that the first half of the yuan exchange rate mechanism reform steadily, the second half will further improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, adhere to the market supply and demand as the basis of reference to a basket of currencies to adjust. At the same time, we will continue to implement the credit policy of "maintaining control", adjust and optimize the credit structure, strengthen systematic risk prevention, and keep the financial system healthy and stable development.