Experts predict China's exports are expected to turn negative for 4 quarters

Economic Watch Network reporter Renjie Deng Meiling VECHENGWU due to the rebound in China's domestic economy, as well as the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, experts predict that June China's import value decreased by a narrow margin.　　But external demand remains depressed, orders are reduced and protectionism continues to rise, with experts predicting June exports continue to fall.　　With the global economy gradually stabilizing, experts believe that China's export and import value of foreign trade in the 4 quarter of this year may be positive growth, but is not expected to rebound a small, and negative growth throughout the year can not change. China's imports in June fell 21.8% per cent year-on-year, with exports falling 22.7% per cent year-on-year, according to median estimates from 10 research institutes surveyed by the economic Observation Network's monthly macro data forecast.　　Growth forecasts for imports range from 26% to 16.3%, with exports growing between 25.9% and 15.2%.　　Statistics show that China's imports fell 28% per cent in May, with exports falling 21.8% per cent year-on-year. Zhao, a senior researcher at China Construction Bank, said that as the price of raw materials rose more sharply, and the general trade was subject to high domestic investment growth and demand increased, the June import amount is expected to be around 83.5 billion U.S. dollars, compared to May, a larger increase. However, due to the high base of the same year, the June import is still a larger decline.　　Zhao Forecast, the future import chain may appear a small rebound.　　Guotai chief economist Lee Thunderbolt also believes that as the domestic economic rebound, especially real estate and other private sector investment in the rapid rebound, will produce more vigorous demand for imported products, he expected the future import decline will continue to shrink, is expected to be in the fourth quarter of the year is likely to increase. On exports, experts forecast that export growth could be positive by the end of the year, but the recovery was smaller. Aloft, a senior financial analyst at Bank of Communications, said China's exports are expected to emerge from negative growth by the end of the year as the global economy stabilises in the four quarters.　　But negative growth throughout the year cannot change. Zhao also said that external demand remained sluggish and the overall situation of exports was not optimistic.　　Although in the 4 quarter of foreign for the traditional consumption season to prepare will increase procurement, but the extent of the rebound can not be very large. However, Societe Generale and Societe Generale are more optimistic about the value of China's foreign trade and imports.　　Societe Generale predicts that imports and exports will rebound sharply in June, with imports falling at an estimated narrowing to-19.4-13.1%, with exports expected to narrow to-18.7-11.6%. Societe Generale Securities chief macro analyst Dongxiangan provided the report, excluding the cardinal reason, from the chain data, June import and export still have a substantial rebound. Excluding dollar-denominated factors, real import and export recovery took place earlier. The physical volume of import and export trough in December, after import due to strong domestic demand rebound led. The new export orders rose for 7 consecutive months, will be reflected in the second half of the year's imports and exports year-on-year data, is expected to 4-quarter high probability of a positive year-on-year growth.