Fan: This year GDP growth or up to 8%-9% management asset bubbles need to pay attention to

China Economic Reform Research Foundation, Director of National Economy Institute, Fan, Beijing, March 20 (reporter Li Jing) Today, China Economic Reform Research Foundation, Director of National Economy Institute fan on the theme of "China and the world economy: growth, adjustment and cooperation," the China Development Forum 2010, said The main crisis of the world economy over the past 30 years was not caused by inflation, but by property inflation. However, the current management of asset bubbles is a matter for the countries to focus on, in this regard the Chinese Government has adopted a regulatory policy is correct.　　At present, China's economy is still in rapid growth, this year's economic growth will also achieve 8%-9% growth rate. The following is the speech of the guest: In retrospect, when we attended the meeting last year, everyone was predicting the situation of the Chinese economy last year. We should make a record in the future, the meeting every year, what everyone said, who said the right, who said wrong. I made this suggestion because I was right last year and I said that it should not be a problem for the Chinese economy to maintain growth of more than 8% last year.　　I have that confidence, on the one hand, because the Chinese government adopted a strong macro-policy at that time. More important is that China has been taking macro-control measures in the past few years, in a bubble, in the pressure of those inflation, did not make the Chinese economy as the other economies to achieve a big bubble. From the basic principles of economics, there is no big bubble, there will be no big crisis, it is relatively easy to adjust. Where is the inflection point of China's economy?　　In the four quarter of 07, rather than the 08-year four quarter, it has been a year of adjustment, and it is easier to meet new challenges to deal with the crisis. This gives us a revelation, and also the basic requirement of macroeconomics, that it is necessary to adjust against the wind, and that it is particularly important to adopt counter-cyclical policies in the boom period, rather than looking at the bubble during the boom.　　Of course, people say I do not know where the risk, loss of regulation, regulation, and so on, and so on bubble, the last crisis will inevitably occur. China's economy is still growing at a high speed. In my view, this year will also achieve 8-9% growth, and this year to a certain extent will achieve normal growth. That is, the main impetus for growth is no longer government spending as it did last year, but more market forces, including growth in real estate investment, growth in business sector investment, growth in consumer spending, and at least not a 3% growth in foreign trade and exports, but at least flat. The overall economic growth tends to be government.　　If it continues, by the year 2011, China's economy will grow to normal, and it will be a new boom. From this year onwards to next year, I personally think that the Chinese economy will in fact enter a new period of prosperity. So the challenge for us at this time is the same: how to manage prosperity. The issues we are discussing now include inflation, the real estate bubble, asset bubbles and so on, and to some extent the boom, which is a big challenge for all of us. I personally believe that the threat of inflation exists, but it is not particularly large in the near term.　　It was noted that the 2.7% per cent inflation rate mentioned in February was actually based on deflation at the time of last year, with statistical problems. On a monthly month-on-month basis, inflation in February was no higher than December, almost zero. More important to China is indeed asset bubbles. Therefore, management prosperity is largely how to manage the property market, the capital market, manage these levers and so on. That's the lesson of the past.　　The big financial crisis was also caused by property bubbles and asset bubbles. And we recall that the major crises of the world over the past 30 years were not caused by inflation, but by property inflation. I think the problem of managing asset bubbles is what we have to focus on now. First, be proactive, make adjustments earlier, and don't wait until the bubble is formed.　　China's central government has adopted a regulatory policy that is right. Second, the very key question is what means to adjust, it is not enough in the capital market to rely solely on the macro-economic policy, finance and currency of textbooks, which requires some financial policies and even direct quantity control, including the supply and demand, including financial policy, mortgage loan, lever control, etc. To achieve real management. We have insufficient experience in this regard.　　But it is not always enough to draw on the lessons of past crises of property bubbles in countries, and other policies are needed. Hopefully we can talk about what China is doing now may have some general significance. China still has a lot of administrative system, the market system is still not perfect, have not reformed well, therefore have to make some direct control policy. For example, financial policy, such as the management of mortgages, may be of universal significance. Not to say that the system has not been changed well, do not manage prosperity. Managing prosperity is necessary in all circumstances, and countries with underdeveloped countries and institutions are more likely to need management prosperity.　　Otherwise, once in crisis, the consequences would be disastrous. The last thing I want to say is that the biggest challenge for China to manage prosperity now is how to push for further reform. There is a big difference between macro policy, management prosperity and the efficiency of structural adjustment and micro resource allocation. China's big problem now is structural. Including the real estate market is prone to bubble, a big reason is that the system is not sound, these systems do not change on the policy, the government means, every day to adjust, and often problems, if more stabilizers do not rule out, there will be problems. If there were more internal stabilizers, the problem of managing prosperity and curbing asset bubbles would be eased, so that government policy would be more orderly and could achieve its aims.