Five personal cloud development forecast

For cloud + end model, or personal cloud services, what exactly will be the status quo and the future, Zhou Feng, Netease senior vice president of the Internet conference held in September for a speech. The following is the text of the speech sorting, Zhou Feng said "personal cloud" is likely to be the most noteworthy potential wave of 2012. At present, the software and data migration to the cloud is still accelerating, and the explosive proliferation of personal cloud applications will give me the next big opportunity for the Chinese Internet.

If the internet circle has its own weather forecast and I happen to be the forerunner on duty then I'd like to foresee that tomorrow the internet weather is "cloudy."

"Cloudy" not only indicates that the future direction of the industry still has some uncertainties, but "the cloud" as a new trend of widespread concern will surely occupy a leading role in the recent "climate" of the Internet.

Obviously, every step of the way in the Internet is often led by a class of products or technologies. Since 2000, China's Internet has undergone three huge waves: the emergence of search engines in 2000 and the gradual replacement of portals with more precise and intelligent navigation services. In 2007, smartphones represented by the iPhone replaced rich applications Card cameras, newspapers and magazines, electronic dictionaries and other physical products; microblogging in 2009 using a powerful fragmentation from the media platform has changed the face of media and marketing. Each wave will bring a new round of opportunities and challenges.

The "personal cloud" will likely be a potential wave of concern in 2012. Software and data are accelerating migration to the cloud, and the outbreak of personal cloud applications will be the next wave of opportunities for China's Internet.

What is a personal cloud?

The so-called Personal Cloud Services refers to services that allow users to freely store, synchronize, access and share personal data using multiple Internet devices. This concept was proposed by the U.S. company Gartner in the February 2012 Consumers and the Personal Cloud report. At present, personal cloud domains at home and abroad mainly include network disk and cloud notes, and related products in the fields of photo albums and music at the same time.

The Gartner report predicts that by 2014, the Personal Cloud, a "PC," will go beyond the traditional PC-based computer and be the primary location for users to store their data. This forecast is mainly for the United States and the global market. Compared with the United States, similar services in China started to appear in batches after 3 years. At present, there is no unified understanding of the product category of "personal cloud" in China, but this does not affect the forthcoming explosive growth of personal cloud in China.

Why is it now the most likely timing of an outbreak?

First of all, the popularization of smartphones has led to a broader demand for web storage of documents and photos. For the first time ever, popular users have multiple computing devices (PCs, smartphones and tablets) simultaneously. And to allow users to have a unified experience among multiple personal devices, the most natural solution is to save the data to the personal cloud. On the other hand, smartphones generate a large amount of data, in addition to the traditional working documents and application data, a large amount of multimedia data such as photos, audio and video are added. These data are extremely underutilized without a personal cloud and are often eventually discarded as the device is lost. But automatically saving them in the personal cloud will dramatically increase the efficiency of using the data. This form meets the user's natural appeal, so there is a huge opportunity.

Second, the system hardware and software technology is mature enough. Software, open source Hadoop, NoSQL solutions are maturing. On the hardware side, the falling prices and widespread adoption of high storage density servers such as SSDs (solid state drives) and 2U24 disks have made it possible for any startup to provide high-quality cloud services. A few years ago, highly scalable data center services were still patented by larger companies. All major Internet companies in China had data center foundation software teams that developed a number of basic data center software systems about five years ago. Promote the development of the company's business. However, with the rapid maturation of open-source software in recent years, many of these successful teams are currently undergoing painful reorientation or transformation. Based on these proven open source projects, doing the same kind of development is tantamount to reinventing the wheel. On the other hand, this is no better news for the start-ups and for the development of personal clouds.

Is it another bubble?

For a new wave, people often have all kinds of questions: "Is this another new round of beautiful bubbles?" For the personal cloud is no exception.

Some people think that personal cloud lacks innovativeness. Applications such as network disks and notes are not new. Others think that because of the lack of Internet access in China and users' privacy concerns, personal clouds can not create a wide range of user habits. Some people think that the personal cloud has problems in the business model. It is very difficult to charge users in China, and the free service of 10GB and 20GB is a "burn business."

For these problems, some can be attributed to misreading, while others can be resolved in the near future. In novelty, the new personal cloud applications generally support seamless synchronization of multiple devices, which is the biggest difference with the traditional applications. The problem of bandwidth does exist, but this problem can be solved by reasonably choosing the type of application by individual cloud developers, coupled with the rapid growth of 3G and fiber-optic networks. And public users do have privacy concerns, but that does not change the big picture that data is better off in the cloud, just as cash should be placed in the bank rather than in the big closet at home. Finally, on the business model issue, the issue will only get smaller as storage costs are halved every 12 months and developers are constantly exploring ways to make money.

5-point forecast for personal cloud

Forecast 1: Various types of personal cloud applications will merge or converge.

Users like the simpler "Just Works" service. As users rely on the gradual reliance on personal cloud capabilities such as synchronization, users do not store documents, notes, and photos on separate products, which is too complicated. Recently, we have seen such a trend: the synchronous network disk adds the function of the notes, and the notes increase the function of the synchronous photos. The category distinction between different cloud applications is gradually blurred, and the cloud service brand is continuously strengthened. As this trend continues to evolve, the integration of a single application after the cloud service brand will become the competition in the personal cloud industry in the future.

Forecast 2: Domestic personal cloud will once again win the competition.

In every area of ​​the Internet, the territorial contention is almost ubiquitous. Foreign brands of innovative ideas and technological advantages often make it occupy the market in the first mover advantage. But so far, domestic brands have dominated the market in most areas through focused localized design and a steady streamlined service experience. In the personal cloud market, domestic enterprises will also exert their unique advantages in the following aspects and eventually achieve a competitive victory.

First of all, domestic personal cloud products can be designed for the Chinese market with unique features. For example, there is a cloud of notes on the phone handwriting handwriting feature, designed for the characteristics of Chinese characters, the introduction of brush stroke design. This feature has more than 40% usage daily. Second, the nature of personal cloud products determines the importance of local partners. Domestic personal cloud Through cooperation with microblogging, IM account system and products that generate content and access content, it can greatly enrich the product form and lower the use threshold. Furthermore, the domestic personal cloud access speed, reliability has inherent advantages, the fact that users care about this, it has been reflected in the market.

Forecast 3: Personal cloud services will gradually become the standard App.

Just as many mobile phone users now expect a new mobile App to support the Sina Weibo login function, after 1-2 years, users also expect the App to have functions like "save to XX cloud" and "read from XX cloud". App developers should cooperate with each brand's personal cloud service open API as soon as possible to seize the high ground of cloud service.

Prediction 4: Mobile phone manufacturers involved in personal cloud services will inevitably "tasteless."

For the potential cloud of "personal cloud", mobile phone manufacturers naturally will not miss this opportunity. However, PC manufacturers trying to develop software failure experience on the PC has shown that interlacing, such as every mountain, all-you-can-eat hardware and software often does not work. Developing and maintaining personal cloud services is not an easy task, and an individual cloud on the market continues to gain traction with users. In addition to the special case of Apple, other handset manufacturers in fact very difficult to achieve such a high level of software and Internet research and development strength. Involved in personal cloud services, is likely to be a handset maker's "tasteless." Their best choice should be as early as possible with individual cloud manufacturers to tap a broader space for mutual benefits.

Prediction 5: 2013 will be the year of the cloud of individuals.

Since the beginning of 2011, the outbreak of smart phones has popularized. In the same year, personal cloud applications began to emerge in batches, with user accumulation and market education ranging from 1 million to 10 million. As a result, there will be a burst of growth in personal cloud applications next year. Ereli predicted in 2012 "China Cloud Storage Industry and User Behavior Research Report" that personal cloud storage subscribers will reach 223 million in 2013, exceeding 1/3 of the number of netizens in China that year, making it one of the key applications of China's Internet. Netease Youdao cloud notes, just over a year after the launch of the end of June 2011, has accumulated 5 million users, which goes well beyond the initial development of Evernote, we can see the Chinese market for personal cloud applications have been higher acceptance, the industry Large-scale sexual outbreak is just around the corner.

Are you ready for the "cloudy" weather tomorrow?