Data released on the eve of the brandished again

"Red Weekly" reporter Houfei published data The former central bank "brandished", seems to have become a practice in recent months. On the evening of October 19, the central bank raised interest rates, two days later, the National Bureau of Statistics released its third-quarter macro-data, and on the evening of November 10, the central bank issued its October macro　　Saturday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the November macro data, Friday, the central bank announced from December 20 onwards, the increase of 0.5%.　　Boots landing short or rebound this week, the market has been in the speculation of interest rate hikes and adjustment, now, the central bank to announce the registration, whether it means that the mood of the market worries have been lifted? "The Monday rally should be a big probability event," CITIC Investment macro analyst Wei Fengchun told The Economist.　　Wang Yu, JP Morgan's chief economist for China, also believes that the interest in the stock market is positive, "compared to the market before the expected rate hike, the intensity of registration is slightly smaller, and taking into account the five major banks of the temporary registration adjustment of the two-month period has arrived, at this time, the adjustment of the liquidity contraction effect is not as big as expected. "But it is only a short-term rebound, because the market will then expect the next Central bank action, and the next few months may be the market will be in this expected and expected to spend every day."　　"Wei Fengchun said. So, when will the big stick fall?　　Wang Yu that next January may be revised again, "it is customary that at the beginning of the year, major banks have a stronger impulse to lend, and the central bank may again raise the reserve to curb excessive credit." The November CPI or re-forecast "again in the data before the registration, may indicate that the November CPI again exceeded the management can tolerate the limit."　　Wei Fengchun added. For the November CPI, the market is expected to reach its highest value for the year.　　Widely expected between 4.6%~4.8%, but there are also rumors that the CPI will reach 5.1%. "If the CPI is again above market expectations, it could have a negative impact on the Monday market." A macro analyst at a brokerage firm told The Economist.　　Looking back on the adjustment, it was the day after the October 4.4% 's hyper-expected CPI announcement, and if the CPI was again more than expected in November, it could shorten the "boots Landing" bounce time.　　In addition to the expected CPI, several figures released in Friday added to the need for tighter liquidity. The red line of 7.5 trillion credit scale will be broken all year round. According to figures released by the People's Bank of China on 10th, the new renminbi loan of 564 billion yuan in November, not only exceeded the previous market 500 billion yuan forecast, more importantly, the annual credit scale also exceeded 7.5 trillion of the annual target. "In the short term, this demand for capital can only be controlled by cyclical means such as regulation and interest rate hikes." "Wang Yu said.　　In addition, the M2 growth rate and the higher-than-expected November import and export values also increase the need for tighter liquidity.　　"Steady" currency, how to stabilize? In addition to the SATURDAY published macrosThe attention of the data attracts the eyeball, the Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing in Friday is more and more attention.　　December 3, the Politburo meeting has been for next year's economic policy to the tone, "to implement a positive fiscal policy and sound monetary policy." But how to be a "stable" currency, is still the focus of market concern. Most brokerages believe that "stability" means returning to normal credit conditions before the crisis, which must be tight next year relative to monetary policy last year and this year.　　From the scale of credit, next year's credit scale must be lower than this year's 7.5 trillion yuan, "may be around 6.5 trillion ~ 7 trillion yuan," Wang Yu, "M2 growth rate may be around 15%~16%."　　In addition, most brokerages expect the next year to regulate inflation will become a focus of economic work, and is expected to increase the tolerance of inflation, "may be to 3.5%~4% around." Of course, these are the analysts ' expectations, what the real results will be, we can only wait until the end of the Sunday meeting. "If it exceeds the market's expectations, for example, the credit target is still set at 7.5 trillion, and the Monday market is likely to be more upbeat," the unnamed analyst said, "It is also possible not to introduce specific credit targets, but not to mention the volume of credit targets does not mean there is no actual operating credit scale control. "So what will be the liquidity of the stock market next year?" "Overall, the liquidity of the stock market is relatively sufficient," Wang Yu, "We expect nominal GDP in 13%~14% around, in addition, the country's real estate control is expected to be still not relaxed, comprehensive, the stock market liquidity is relatively adequate." "But," this does not mean that the stock market is bound to rise, and that investor confidence and policy uncertainty remain the shackles of the stock market's rise next year. "JP Morgan thinks. It also believes that if inflation repeats in the two quarter of next year, a corresponding policy and pessimistic investor expectations could have a detrimental effect on the market.