Hequan, academician of Engineering Academy: China Mobile Internet traffic reaches global 10%

"TechWeb Report" September 11 News, 2012 China Internet Conference will be held in Beijing International Conference Center today. Hequan, academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that China's mobile internet traffic has increased 10 times times over the past 18 months, accounting for 10% of the global Internet traffic, and the bandwidth traffic of our country's access has increased by 6 times times in the last 5 years.

The following is a transcript of the speech:

Hequan: Respecting leaders, distinguished experts, good morning, ladies and gentlemen, I am glad to have the opportunity to come to this meeting, my report topic is "Internet from fixed to mobile change", will talk about four aspects of content, mobile business development, network system evolution, business model innovation, industrial pattern of change.

First of all, the development of mobile Internet.

This is a map of mobile internet traffic, you can see, in the past 18 months, Internet traffic has increased 10 times times, currently accounts for 10% of the global Internet traffic, and the Asia-Pacific region is higher, the Asia-Pacific region This ratio is 17.84%, this statistic time is May this year, It is expected that mobile Internet traffic in the Asia-Pacific region will account for 1/5 of the Internet traffic by the end of this year.

The average smartphone in 2016 is estimated to produce 2.6GB in one months.

The table on the 2011 and 2016 compared to the flow of wireless video, 2011 smartphone accounted for 12% of all mobile phones, traffic accounted for 82%, 2016 worldwide mobile data flow in the mobile phone to account for half of the tablet computer accounted for about 10%, The flow of mobile data in China accounts for around 1/10 of the world in 2016 years.

The blue representation of the image moving data, Yellow mobile voice, 2009 began to move the data has exceeded the mobile voice, I predict 2015 world mobile data business will be increased by 26 times times in 2010, China Mobile mobile data traffic accounted for the entire network 41% of the bandwidth, this year should be more than half.

This is the annual report released by the three major operators last month, and you can see that the yellow is the national, the picture on the left is the national Internet business in the telecommunications operators in the business income accounting for the proportion of revenue, China Telecom higher 60%. Right this figure is our three operators mobile data revenue accounted for the proportion of mobile revenue, the national proportion is yellow, is 30%, and China Telecom to 45%, the Chinese Unicom (600050, shares bar) over 40%, China Mobile is 28%.

In the early years, everyone saw the flow of text generated by the Internet, with the emergence of microblogging, blog, a lot of internet users to see the microblogging, blog, with the advent of the Internet, sensors, video head collection of a lot of information will be online, this data needs to be explained, now in the development of Micro Bo 4.0, is that we are now on Google or Baidu is good, search time recommended a lot of reference books, we hope that the future of the search as a doctoral student to write a review, as long as the answer to see enough.

Compared to the average desktop internet, mobile Internet small screen terminals, I hope we search more convenient, so now on the mobile Internet we have intelligent search based on speech, there are location-based search, that is, the return of the search results to take into account the location of the user, is where sent out, The answer to you is related to this. Another is personalized search, even if the same problem, if the child asked and the elderly asked may have to feedback different search results, which is related to the user's behavior.

Search results also from the area, now a lot of search instructions thousands of, tens of thousands of, but many are duplicated, the phone screen can not see so much.

Search, browsers are faster and better, so now there are dual-core browsers.

Now the terminal can write, also can touch, 03 handwriting, 04 voice, 06 play game, 08 wifi,2010 years have dual-core processor, sensors can be sent to our mobile phone, the old man's sensors are different, you can determine whether you are wrestling or bending, night to see the phone automatically shiny, If Presbyopia can also send two, now many functions can be reflected in our phone.

Our network can video, because the phone's screen is small, network video customer's mobile phone is what brand, what resolution, screen aspect ratio is how, not that users need high-definition TV to send High-definition TV, the corresponding identification, suitable for the end of the file and video playback, Terminals can be able to image stitching and playback, such as iphone, if it is Bill Gates to pass the video, the first voice pass, and then the voice to the shape of the back of the video, directly to see the first stitch of the image, but the feeling is continuous, which is the cloud.

For example, take a cell phone here, there is a release-style advertising, generally put ads when many people are indifferent to the ads, through the phone immediately perceive you see this ad, so immediately to the corresponding graphics to you, if rare what kind of house, can also be different to you, this is mobile intelligent, Of course also in the position of service, for example, I want to find a bar, through mobile search can find a good bar in this place, what good wine to sell, satellite potential can find a good place to sell wine.

Location services are often tied to other businesses, click on social networks, you can find out where you bought, and even through mobile payment to know how much money you spend, through social network to users, the propaganda of the estuary, product publicity better.

The mobile business is now further expanded, and the traditional telecommunications operators provide the telephone, is real-time, virtual, point-to-point, including MSN, QQ, micro-letter chat, of course, can also be implemented not when the point to point, like the earliest telegram, of course, there are also public, such as rice chat, of course, there are the most open, like mass text messages, Mass email, in fact, public SNS. Synchronous push requirements, but not necessary, there is no ability, this micro-letter rice chat and QQ, MSN is not the same, the message has a strong alternative ability, you can see the development of micro-letter users, the development of the first users of mobile phone per capita SMS traffic rose 7%, of course, now telecom operators are also subject to this challenge, There have been mobile flying chats and so on.

Traditional voip,pc can be used with IM software, the general PC is no way to call the fixed phone and mobile phone, the fixed phone also has no way to call the PC.

Although the telephone between the fixed and mobile traditional communication can also use IP, but the voice is the function of the data transmission, but as the operator of the phone business to manage. There is now a VoIP that is not managed as a telephony service, a smartphone is a PC with a phone number, and there is not only an IP address but also a telephone number on the Internet, in which case his VoIP business is managed as a telephone business, and under such a model it can be used as a VoIP service for telephone business management. VoIP that is not even managed as a telephone may be free of charge.

Let's talk about the rigor of the network system.

With the development of the Internet mobile communication needs to be broadband, in the future can do 100 trillion, a G, from the first generation of frequency division multiple access, to time division multiple address, to code division multiple sites.

Mobile communication in the future needs more technology and means to improve, like the graph of multi-point collaboration, there are multiple base stations and terminals. There are also through the relay method and terminal, but also easy to buy through Vifi Synergy, to provide information to the terminal.

In the past we are the telephone, the transmission mode is the electronic transmission, now is the data, the transmission mode to switch to the packet transmission.

Mobile communication more capacity is reflected in the local area network, the local area network transmission also wants to change, actually these are based on the grouping transmission way.

Just said the mobile data is mostly mobile video, video is generally localized access to the pressure of the big Internet, so the LAN needs to be grouped.

In addition, mobile communication base station return, not only the voice, but also to pass data, need a lot of development, replace the original voice-oriented transmission technology.

We can now find, for example, shiny this place may be Huilongguan, most people live there, the night to call, through the mobile internet is also a lot of people in the daytime to call, the Internet is less, in order to use a new technology on average, to centralize each of the cells.

Mobile Internet to go to full IP and flat. The past mobile internet voice is the circuit, the data is the packet exchange, the future voice, data are the same go all IP.

The traditional Internet through many links, from the base station to the base station controller, now in order to quickly transfer this data, requires the mobile communication network flat, from the base station jump directly to IPC.

In the past our mobile network often asked the terminal, is not to leave this place, is not roaming, is not the switch, in fact, most of the 80% of mobile phones are sitting in the room, now use the tablet computer more often not in the mobile, but in the fixed time, mobile communications, Mobile data is mostly not mobile, mobile or personalized writing, since it is not mobile-oriented, so it is not necessary to always follow the user is not mobile, so you can extend the mobile management to the root cause, which is more conducive to the rapid transmission of user data online.

Now we find that the volume of data is getting bigger, traditional our institutions, our system is the terminal, and then over to the client server, and now over to the Peer-to-peer, a large number of information in the exchange between terminals, now in the mobile Internet we found that a user of a search and query involving multiple servers, information exchange between servers, The exchange of data between the user and the server is transferred from the Peer-to-peer to the other.

In the last 5 years, our country's access to bandwidth traffic has increased 6 times times.

Micro-letter, such as instant messaging business is short packet short online, video business is long Baochang online. Later access to the band to see the limited high requirements.

Last year, China Mobile's chairman, Mr Ma, told Tencent's Mr. Ma that your QQ consumes 40% of mobile traffic in Guangdong, and Sina Weibo consumes 6% of its data, while our social networking site wants to optimize the process.

Third, the innovation of business model.

The advent of mobile internet has led to an open platform, and today the theme is openness and synergy. Open platform third party to contribute content, enrich the application of ICP, open to have a greater loyal user base, in addition to have a third party's development initiative, of course, there are both sides of the business model of profit, like Google, our Tencent, Taobao, Renren also opened the corresponding, China Mobile flying letter, China Unicom has cooperated with Shanghai's pplive to provide network video, which is also a kind of open win performance.

Now the traditional Internet and traditional mobile communications, the value chain is relatively short, operators accounted for about 70% of the profit, now the Internet, especially the mobile internet era, the value chain elongated, operator's profit was diverted, now the profit from the operator to the terminal. The advent of the IPhone and the ipad changed the rules of the game.

It takes years for Microsoft to develop a system, Google release also need a few months, Millet released a new version is also very fast, each update 10 trillion, he has 1.5 million enthusiasts, through the brush machine, to help solve the new version of the user experience, millet company has hundreds of thousands of of the business staff to increase to tens of thousands of do not need to pay the product manager, Consolidate a loyal user base.

Traditional telecom operators are not charged, the ICP business model mainly through the popularity of advertising fees, but also to users to receive custom service fees. ICP can also receive registration fees, custom service fees or game tool fees for users.

The Internet's monthly subscription mode is used in the monthly speed or traffic limits of the various communications are no longer charge, based on intelligent terminals not as a phone business management VoIP is also within this range.

The change of industrial separatist.

Mobile phone smart terminals and the boundaries of the tablet computer increasingly blurred, tablets from 10 inches to a few inches have, according to my understanding, a hand holding a mobile phone, a hand holding a tablet.

As the property of the consumer terminal, the intelligent terminal has surpassed the properties of the communication terminal, and replaced it with Apple and Samsung.

Apple has seized the opportunity of mobile Internet, combining products and services to achieve the vertical integration of the whole industry chain.

Nokia has been slow to respond to the smartphone transition by satisfying its performance on functional handsets.

Sony Ericsson missed the combination of a mobile phone and a music platform, swinging on the phone OS system selection.

IBM sells PC business.

Ericsson has become the fifth-largest software company, with the emphasis on mobile broadband and Management Service network outsourcing while giving up terminals.

The important transformation period of the computer industry,

Dell has lost 20% of its value in a year.

Intel is making chips, now through acquisitions, the business from CPU development to cell phone chips.

Hardware companies preemptive access to software, Microsoft 8.5 billion dollar acquisition, layout mobile search, release tablet power into the hardware field.

Amazoe into the portable terminal market.

Google has entered the mobile-phone sector with 12.5 billion acquisitions.

Internet companies layout mobile phone industry chain. Qihoo 360 works with Huawei to make mobile phones.

Telecom operators have also faced the transformation of mobile Internet, China Telecom proposed to telecommunications, to achieve scale management, flow management.

China Unicom, focus on scale growth and coordinated development, innovation and change.

China Mobile, focus on "intelligent Pipeline + Open Platform + feature business + Friendly section". China Mobile is also planning to separate the cloud companies below him.

Mobile Internet Silver Bell Market, 1990 the country's top ten leading companies, the biggest is the ibm,90 era of telecommunications companies and computer manufacturers occupy the top ten company seats, 2000 the biggest is Microsoft, and then Japan's DoCoMo company. 2000 software manufacturers to replace hardware manufacturers to become the market leader. 2012 movement became the trend of thought of the Times.

The country's non-income has accounted for half of its revenues, and internet services have dominated the growth of telecoms revenues. China's ICP industry revenue increased by 39% in the year, telecom operators revenue increased by 10. Rush to network or traffic monthly. From desktop Internet to mobile Internet is not only the evolution of network technology, but also the change of business model and management mode. The mobile internet is more unknown than it is known, and the future needs to be created.

Lu Wei: Hequan's speech will undoubtedly not become the highlight and focus of the Conference. Last year we awarded the honorary title of Hequan academician China Internet Conference, and this year we issued certificates and medals for Hequan.

Thank Wu again for the splendid speeches we have brought to us.