International oil price approaching 70 U.S. dollars can the new energy sector rise?

Every reporter Hu Yuhui since the end of April, the international oil price gradually higher, after one months of rising, has approached the 70 dollar pass. However, in the A-share market, to see the face of oil prices, the new energy capital of the time is not a lot of reaction.　　This week, the new energy sector Index fell 0.08%, the same period of the Shanghai Composite Index week rose 4.59%, the new energy plate after two weeks after running again to lose the market.　　New energy sector, future can usher in the opportunity to rise to become a hot market? The rise in oil prices has not led to a strong new energy in the upper great bull market, with the international crude oil prices rising, the word "new energy" into a a-share of many investors view.　　Tianwei Conservation, Sichuan Investment Energy, Goldwind technology, such as a number of cattle stocks fame. International oil prices have been rising all the way since the end of April. May 29, international oil prices rose for the 5th consecutive day, a breakthrough of 66 U.S. dollars, a week rose 8.6%; international oil prices rose 29.71% in the month, the largest one-month rise since March 1999.　　Oil prices continued to rise this week, with international oil prices up to $68.81 trillion as of June 4. In the face of this stimulus, a-share dry new energy concept stocks are rather bleak.　　The Monday plate index a small rise of 1.51%, the reaction is not salty; Since then, the two daily average of less than 0.4% of the weak increase in the market, each segment represents a share of the Tianwei change week down 6.97%, Goldwind week fell 7.19%, Oriental Electric weekly decline close to 8%.　　The long-term upward trend has not yet been established because the market has not recognised the long-term upward trend in oil prices. Founder Securities Oil and Petrochemical industry analyst Li Guangzhan that the current round of oil prices is under the premise of liquidity relaxation, based on economic recovery and short-term unexpected factors in the role of the fund-driven market, the medium-term oil price cautious attitude.　　He pointed out that the recent rise in oil prices from three, the dollar depreciation, economic recovery expectations and supply constraints. The depreciation of the dollar is the main cause of the oil price rise.　　On May 29, the dollar fell to a minimum of 1.41:1 per cent against the euro, leading to a general rise in dollar-denominated commodity futures prices, including crude oil. In addition, the recent release of a series of economic data has gradually deepened the market to the global economic recovery forecast.　　May 29, Japan's industrial production rose by 5.2% in April, India's 1-March gross domestic product rose 5.8% per cent, while in the US, the consumer confidence index in May was 68.7, a 3.6 increase from April, the highest since September last year. On the supply side, OPEC's meeting on May 28 called on Member States to complete their production cuts, a resolution that showed the organization's willingness to push prices higher. The organization's 4.2 million-barrel production plan was only 80%.　　With crude oil prices off the lows since April, the willingness of many Member States to cut production has waned. It looks as if oil prices are set to enter another cycle, but Li Guangzhan stressed that a short-term rebound does not alter the relative oversupply of the oil market. AccountsDemand for crude oil has not recovered, and global demand has not improved, as the former U.S. rail and road freight shipments have been affected by the weakening economy. It can not be ignored that the oil price rise behind the international speculators figure.　　Li Guangzhan said that as countries gradually injected more liquidity into the market, some speculative funds began to enter the oil ETF market, speculators in the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures net short to long, but also pushed the price of crude oil to rise. According to the current projections of major research institutions, 70 dollars is about the high of oil prices in the year.　　Haitong Securities are expected to be the annual crude oil price per barrel between 50~60 dollars, founder Securities are expected in 50~55 US dollar.　　Focus on policy factors on the other hand, since 2007, the factors affecting the trend of new energy concept stocks have shifted from international oil prices to policy factors. This year's rise in oil prices has little to do with new energy, analysts said. He said that, unlike the situation two years ago, many sub industries such as wind power, nuclear power has entered the development period, because the industry is not fully mature, to compete with the traditional energy can not be separated from the government support.　　At this stage, the market is clearly more concerned with the movement of the policy side.　　Looking back on the domestic new energy sector in the past few waves of market, no one is not related to policy. New Year's Day after the concept of lithium batteries for the first hair-driven new materials have strengthened, China's automobile industry revitalization Planning and Science and technology Department of the "Ten City thousands" project has played a very important role in promoting; in late March, the Ministry of Housing, the Ministry of Finance issued a joint solar roof plan, so that PV plate ushered in the last half a month of unilateral rise　　Last month, it was reported that the new energy industry planning will be reported to the State Council, wind power as the representative, the plate shares are mostly up. At present, we can foresee that this year, China's support for the new energy industry is expected to continue to strengthen. Credit Securities pointed out that at the end of this year's Copenhagen talks, China, as one of the world's largest emitters will bear the corresponding responsibilities, so the future may be through the imposition of carbon tax, industry emission standards, such as mandatory energy-saving emission reduction, the future policy efforts may continue to strengthen.　　Under the policy guidance, the related industry will have the big development. Analysts point to the two major areas of wind power nuclear power analysts said investors should closely track policy trends to explore the industry's real beneficiaries.　　In the near term, the most important is the revitalization of the new energy industry planning. It is understood that some local governments in Jiangsu, Anhui and Shenzhen have launched new energy industry development plans, so the relevant region may have trading opportunities.　　In the three provinces and cities issued by the new Energy adjustment planning, photovoltaic industry, solar cells, wind power equipment, nuclear power equipment are beneficiary industries, new energy vehicles and led industries are the focus of the future development. And from the subdivision industry, industry analysts suggest that the focus on wind power, nuclear power two major sectors of the stock. These two industries have basically entered the "Youth period", the development trend is good, the relevant enterprises have performance support, so wind turbine leading manufacturers and key zeroComponents manufacturers, nuclear power equipment manufacturers and nuclear material enterprises can be included in the focus of attention. PV industry, although the entire industry is still in the trough, but thin-film battery manufacturers by virtue of lower costs, in recent years, the market share has been rising, the relevant company earnings rose better momentum, the industry still exists opportunities.