Is the smart watch craze really coming? The concept of speculation

Said the author recently more and more do not understand the smart watch, the reason is very simple, whether it was released last week, or foreign Pebble, Sony's smartwatch, as long as they played these products will be found, smart watches at this stage do not say alternative smartphones, Even distance from independent intelligent terminals is still a big gap.

In this case, why are smart watches so hot? Why do entrepreneurs rush into this area? The author and a number of people in the industry after the exchange, have the following views to share with you:

1. Smart watches are no novelty. Microsoft's chief research officer, Rick Rashid, had publicly said that Microsoft had launched smart watch products 10 years ago, and the result was that no one had bought them. At home, Taobao merchants also began selling hundreds of yuan of Android watches several years ago, and these products can still be found on Taobao. According to industry sources, there are at least 10 design houses in Shenzhen to launch intelligent Watch solutions, hardware manufacturers need only to control the purchase of hardware, you can create all kinds of smart watches.

ZTE Product Planning Minister Lu Qianho to the author that ZTE has already made a variety of intelligent watch prototype, but due to the low demand for consumers, and not to the market.

Shenzhen, a brand of mobile phone manufacturers, general manager Xu Kai to the author that they have also evaluated the smart watch project, if their own design and development, development costs about 3 million yuan each year, the development of 1.5 can be pushed to the market, smart watch is not a high threshold of the industry. The reason why the company did not do so is:

(1) The current development of intelligent watch experience is very poor, not universal consumer electronics terminals, it is difficult to ensure shipments.

(2) Smart watches do not have a dedicated hardware supply chain, customized hardware is very expensive, the use of smart phone hardware in the product experience of the use of defects.

2. The first wave of smart watches in China is playing the concept. The author participated in the launch of the local entrepreneurial team Inwatch last week, and experienced the product engineering machine, however, unfortunately, inwatch experience is not more than the previous Pebble, smartwatch brilliant.

More make the author care about is, Inwatch founder told the author, Inwatch products to be shipped by September. To be aware, this is already inwatch nth delay shipments, in April this year, its founder of the author's statement is: May conference, June official shipments.

Inwatch's case is not exceptional, and Geak watch, released in June, also announced a postponement of shipments to September this month. Why everyone in the hardware is not very reliable situation, anxious to be smart watch project thrown?

The reason is simple: the hardware is not reliable, can be the first to throw intelligent watch concept is particularly important. Especially for entrepreneurs, whether the first time to follow the smart watch concept of life and death, for four reasons:

(1) The concept of free speculation. Smart watches currently lack of practical application scenarios, developers can give products such as fashion goods, tracing, mobile payment and other unreliable concepts.

The most typical example is health, due to the smart watch itself limited application scenarios, developers have to detect signs as the main selling point of smart watches, leading to price close to 2000 yuan of smart Watches (Geak watch Price of 1999 yuan, Inwatch price 1788 yuan) and hundreds of yuan of smart hand ring rob the market.

(2) The price is set arbitrarily. Smart watches in the market few products, the first market access to the product has a very high bargaining power, unlike mobile phone products to the market to refer to the same specifications of products, and even compressed profit space.

A handset manufacturer's product director said to the author, the smart watch product size is very small, the hardware purchase cost is far lower than the smartphone, according to the official release configuration, even if the smart watches all needs the accessories for the custom device, the Nutshell Geak watch and the Inwatch hardware cost will not exceed 800 yuan, The profit margins for smart watches are much higher than smartphones at current prices.

(3) Visual focus. At present, the concept of wear-type equipment, any smart watch release can become a visual focus, early release greatly reduced the cost of advertising publicity.

(4) The team has greater leeway. Smart watch products are still immature, but its future prospects can be met, entrepreneurial team early accumulation of development experience for follow-up product development is very important. And even if there is a problem in the future, the team's accumulated experience and reputation is enough to ensure a good price.

3. Smart watch for the first time concentrate PK in the first half of next year. ZTE Product Planning Minister Lu Qianho said that the current domestic manufacturers of smart watches can only be regarded as primary products. ZTE says its smart watch products will be launched next year, and the use of the products

At the same time, according to the author, including Lenovo, Cool faction, TCL and other domestic manufacturers have for smart watch project research and development. Projections from time, the domestic manufacturers of smart watch products will be in the first half of next year collective debut, by then, the domestic manufacturer of smart watches will usher in the first time PK.

4. However, entrepreneurs and large manufacturers of products are not reliable. From the actual experience of products, the current market of smart watch products are only the shrink version of smartphones, smart watches to become a true independent intelligent terminals, need to cross the following four thresholds:

1. Operating system and human-computer interaction. Smart watch products are now most portable smartphone Android systems, although smart watch developers on the system and interaction has some optimization, but a good use of the experience is still distance. In Lu Qianho's view, smart watch products in the system-level optimization can only hope that Google itself, and Google's Android optimization will only be after the Apple iwatch release.

2. Software ecosystem. Smart watches want to be stand-alone terminals that require developer support, and this involves the building of a developer ecosystem, something that still can only be done by Apple and Google.

3. Hardware supply chain. Most of the hardware used for smart watches is the hardware of the modified smartphone, and the special device is the key to ensure the good experience of smart watch.

4. Industrial design and commercialization. Smart watch fashion products are heavier and require more industrial design than smartphones. At the same time, the demand for smart watches almost needs to be created from scratch, expanding the market needs strong marketing.

Only Apple is able to solve all of the above problems, because only Apple has a perfect industrial chain at the hardware and software level, and two industrial chains are the basis for smart watch products. According to foreign media reports, Apple's first intelligent watch with a good experience will be released by the end of next year.