License, what will the operator do in 2015?

For Unicom and telecoms, FDD came too late, and how to close the gap with the arch-rivals is a difficult problem.

The licence was issued as expected

Although the FDD before the Spring Festival license is not issued, but the Spring Festival long holiday, the market has begun to wind constantly, the year after three days FDD license officially issued, also can be seen with the market expected time basically coincide.

The Ministry of Industry official issued a second 4G business license, that is Fdd-lte licence, to China Telecom and Unicom. As a result, China has entered the 4G commercial era. Of course the mobile did not get this license.

According to the Ministry of Industry, in accordance with the telecommunications regulations and the Regulation on the management of telecommunications business licensing, the company has issued "lte/fourth-generation digital cellular mobile Communications Service (Fdd-lte)" to China Telecom and Unicom after a comprehensive review of the financial capability, technical capability and operational capability of the applicant. Business license, support enterprises to combine their own actual situation, to promote 4G integration development, promote information consumption.

China's first LTE license plate was issued December 4, 2013, more than a year of buffer time, so that mobile layout of the speed of 4G has been a great development space, which I am afraid of the independent intellectual property rights of the TD is a favor. At present, there are more than 300 operators worldwide that support Fdd-lte, and only 30 support LTE.

LTE and Fdd-lte?

At present, the mainstream of the international 4G application is FDD, and mobile promotion is TD, the two advantages and disadvantages may vary. From the rate, theoretically fdd-lte is higher than LTE, but from the deployment, LTE has the advantage of better use of spectrum resources, suitable for the deployment of dense areas. And the mobile has more than a year of buffer layout, in fact, this is more than a year of time, so that mobile in the 4G high-end users in contention for the first advantage.

By the end of 2014, the latest data show that China Mobile 4G users have exceeded 90 million, 4G base station number of more than 700,000, covering the county level, has been built the world's largest 4G network. That's the advantage.

Originally in the development of 3G, unicom with the advantages of WCDMA in the high-end market access to a lot of users, but because mobile first opened 4G layout, so that Unicom's users lost a lot of, in particular, some relatively high relative contribution ARPU value of the user turned, for Unicom is a big loss.

Of course, for China Telecom, the loss is quite large, in fact, the new users of China Telecom last year can be negligible. Because of its lack of confidence in the construction of TD, telecom and Unicom have been waiting for the landing of FDD.

Today, the FDD license plate officially issued, for telecommunications and unicom, speed up the pace of 4G deployment will undoubtedly be more urgent, and then for the communications equipment manufacturers is also a new development opportunities, it can be expected that the 2015 construction will be greater. However, China Unicom and telecommunications two of limited funds, this step can be how much, perhaps not too high expectations.

After the trial of commercial force, with the licensing will speed up

Admittedly, the Ministry of Industry for Telecommunications and Unicom's development has also been afraid to be complacent, although for TD has a certain tilt, but for the development of FDD has been watching. June 27, 2014, the Ministry of Telecommunications, China Unicom in 16 cities to carry out Fdd-lte and LTE mixed network test, August 28 mixed network test expanded to 40 cities, December 18 and increased to 56 cities.

It is clear that the Ministry of Industry does not want to move a single large, many times, the development of telecommunications and Unicom is also the demand of the market, fully competitive market is the best market. In addition, the market has been rumored that telecommunications and Unicom have the possibility of merging again, in fact, this is to deal with market competition, as well as the move is too powerful a kind of food. Now, of course, it's just hearsay.

In accordance with the overall planning of the three major operators, 2015 China's 4G users are expected to reach 450 million households, accounting for One-third of mobile users nationwide. So this year for Unicom and telecommunications, the premise of robbing 4G users is the ability to improve the layout FDD, as well as the resulting speed, such as a full range of 4G experience, so as to stimulate users to upgrade to 4G applications.

According to the definition of International Telecommunication Union, 4G technology needs to meet the following conditions: The static transmission rate reaches 1Gbps, the user can reach 100Mbps under the high speed moving state. However, the current TD to People's experience is not that kind of speed, do not know if FDD can bring a new leap?

FDD licence issued, who will avoid?

The market is expected to be the three major operators can be fully competitive. Both technology and price can be more fully, so for the end user is the real beneficiary.

At present, mobile is undoubtedly the biggest beneficiary since 4G started. Into the 2015, China Mobile still continued the second half of the 2014 years of 4G growth trend, the latest data show that by the end of January 2015, China Mobile 4G users have broken billion, up to 107 million households.

Although Unicom and Telecom did not disclose their 4G user number, but the market is expected to add to the market is about One-tenth, relatively mobile. This is also the FDD license issued after the two will be the focus of exerting force. If the market is expected to reach 450 million 4G users this year, the scramble will be more diversified.

The contention for these 4G users, mostly from the upgrade of the inherent network users, but the prerequisite for the upgrade is that the price and experience of the operator can really impress the user's heart, this is the main. Predictably, the first round of competition in the 4G market will be in this year's telecoms day, meaning that this May may usher in a new round of the 4G package bid.

For China Unicom and Telecom, the capital that competes with move is network advantage. Yangjie, general manager of China Telecom, said in 2015 that China Telecom's 4G user target was 100 million in 2015. With the determination of Unicom and the development of new users in 2014, it is estimated that 100,000,004 G users will be locked up, so that 100 million more space may also be between mobile and unicom. Of course, the goal of telecommunications, if you want to achieve, the pressure is not small.

It is foreseeable that the advantages of mobility may continue this year, after all, today's mobile 4G base station number has reached 700,000, 2015 base station number will reach 1 million. The construction speed guarantee, for the other two competitors, is also pressure. Moreover, as telecom unicom lags far behind China in terms of economic power, the coverage advantage of China Mobile's 4G network will remain ahead for some time.

Are there any uncertainties?

In fact, when rumours of the FDD licence were circulated on the Internet on the morning of 27th, the capital markets reacted at the first time. China Unicom rose by more than 7% per cent as the close of midday closed in a sudden surge of Chinese connections. Related concept stocks also rose, the radio and television network trading, the flames of communication rose nearly 6%, ZTE Rose over 4%, Wuhan where the valley rose nearly 3%. The same day closed China Unicom also rose 5.6%, apparently FDD licensing, for Unicom's positive is beyond doubt.

Recently, the Ministry of Public Power announced the "Broadband China" 2015 special actions of the main guiding objectives, proposed broadband network capacity, speed and so will achieve a jump. New fiber to cover the household 80 million households, new 4G base station over 600,000, 4G network coverage county and developed townships. As mobile plans to add 300,000 4G base stations this year, it can be foreseen that Unicom and telecom may add 300,000 additional 4G base stations altogether. Still a little less for both. In and mobile competition, disadvantages still exist.

But if the merger is true, as the market has previously rumored, then the scramble for markets may be another picture. This may be a variable for 2015.