Only product will: The Curse of blessing, the blessing of misfortune in accordance with

It is undeniable that the only product will be a respectable enterprise, not only is it in the case of unanimous not optimistic about the extraordinary performance, but also on the nature of the retail understanding and focus on the spirit. Only the goods will represent the electric Business 2.0 of the entrepreneurial direction, its growth process is worth every one of the electric businessman seriously think and summarize.

In the capital markets, the only product is constantly using a new record price to refresh the people's psychological expectations of his valuation. Now the only product will remain strong, as of January 15, the share price of 96 U.S. dollars, the market value of more than 5.3 billion U.S. dollars. Today's title seems to be incompatible with the performance of the only product, but I saw such a few signs, feel the need to talk about, and the enterprise crisis often occurs in the most proud of the moment, the so-called "blessing of the Curse of the Curse of the blessings of the blessing." ”

The stock market chart of the past year (VIPS)

First of all, let's talk about the reason why the stock price keeps hitting new highs.

Since the listing, the only product will be perfect financial performance, so beautiful performance is its share price to create new highs of the biggest push, mainly reflected in three aspects:
First, the rapid growth of income under the effective cost control. Whether it is the only goods will be the order or operating income is to maintain high growth, 2013 Q3 only goods will increase by 115.6% to 11.71 million per cent year-on-year, operating income growth of 146.1% to 384 million U.S. dollars, these speeds far exceed the industry currently around 40% of the average growth rate. What is more important is that while the revenue is growing, the operational efficiency of the product will increase, this is to test the health of a power company is the key indicators, embodied in two aspects: first, only the product will be the gross profit margin continued to climb, 2013 Q3 will be the gross profit margin of 24.2%, the chain to upgrade 0.7%, year-on-year upgrade of 1.9%; Second, the operating costs of the goods will continue to maintain a downward trend, the order production of operating income accounted for from 2012 Q4 12.4% to 2013 Q3 of 11.4%, but only the market costs and general management costs of the revenue accounted for a slight increase, but the basic is stable.

Second, the number of active users and the continuous improvement of the degree of activity. The only active users of the products are still on the fast track of growth, with 2013 Q3 active users reaching 4.013 million, up 131.7% from 1.732 million a year earlier. More importantly, user activity is also increasing, the 2013 Q3 user repeat purchase rate reached 73.8%, the number of the same period last year 73%, 2012 year 63.9%, the user's repeat purchase rate slowly increased. If you see only 91% of the current orders are from the user's repeated purchase to know how important this indicator.

Third, the rapid development of mobile Internet. Flash shopping and mobile terminals have a natural combination of advantages, from the domestic and international flash-purchase as the main business model companies can also be seen from the mobile end of the traffic and order volume are very large. It was not too early to move into the mobile internet until October 2012, when its mobile apps were launched, and there were few orders at first, but then it grew very fast. 2013 Q1 Mobile end of the flow ratio has reached 8%,q2 close to 15%. But it has a lot more room to raise than the number of zulily orders for mother and child buyers, and more than 40% of orders for the United States.

In addition, the U.S. mother-Child Flash purchase website Zulily will provide a more relevant valuation objects. In contrast, Zulily's operating income is less than half of the goods, the growth rate of the two, but zulily p/s valuation more than 9 times times, and only the goods will be less than 4 times times. This may also be an important factor underpinning the valuation of the only product.

So where does the so-called worry come from? There are also three main points:

First of all, more and more products will not gradually deviate from the original characteristics? For platform-type electric business must have the rhythm of the continuous expansion of the category, so that consumers realize the purpose of one-stop shopping. But for the vertical electric operators must be cautious to look at the category expansion, to focus on their own core user groups, even if the expansion of the category should be around the user community rather than simply expand. I will write an article to give you detailed introduction zulily,zulily is a focus of the typical, but this focus is not not to expand the category, but each category expansion of the starting point is from their own core consumer groups of mothers set out. Only products will have a number of different categories before, but the core or clothing, shoes and hats, from December 2013 only products will begin to be revised, focusing on the introduction of beauty makeup, family paradise and home life, such as several channels, cut into the cosmetics, mother and child, home and 3C home appliances, such as several deep water Gradually in the dilution of their own clothing flash brand positioning.

As an enterprise may see the opportunity for development, but I think it is most likely the beginning of the crisis. There are ideeli in the country, there are many foreign countries such as blind expansion and Mashiqianti case. In addition to the category expansion, the only product will have a lot more valuable and can lift the industry threshold of things to do, such as the clothing category to do more in-depth, such as continue to enhance the user's shopping experience, such as continue to carry out the channel sinking, such as focus on the mobile end of a breakthrough. In my opinion, these things are more valuable and meaningful than the pure category expansion at this stage. Focus on the ability to make characteristics, but also to form a continuous brand awareness, if only a general provision of goods, platform-type electric dealers can be more efficient alternative to you.

Second, the only product will be the most heavyweight competitor Jingdong has been admitted last week, the Beijing-East named "Red" brand discount channel has been online. Although this model is seemingly simple, but there is a certain threshold, it is to buy hands, front-end systems and back-end supply chain have certain requirements, so I think this model only has a certain proprietary genes to do well. 2013 with the only product will be popular, including the day cat many sites are online flash purchase channels, the performance of the general reason is because of this. But Jingdong, who started out as a self-made partner, is not the same as any other rival. Jingdong for the Flash shopping in the first page opened a channel, but also carried out a huge publicity, visible internal attention to the project, which will undoubtedly give only the future growth of goods will bring greater pressure.

Finally, there has been a lot of criticism on the stock price of the only product, but because every financial report shows a higher than expected performance, the Bulls occupy the main position temporarily, but how many investors are determined to see more is a problem. If the market changes, especially the only product will not continue to exceed the performance or even to meet the expectations of investors, perhaps the fall of the stock price will be as fast as the rise, this is the only product will be sure to be vigilant.

The above points, from competitors and the capital market criticism is external pressure, a good company is hard to be defeated by external forces, terrible is the internal problems, forget their own true colors. For the vertical electric business, because the focus can be moving, successful, and because of the temporary success gradually forget their own true nature of the electric business is also everywhere. I am very impressed that only the product will focus on the nature of the retail business, the spirit of practical work, I hope it will not lose this focus, do not repeat the story of every guest.