Real estate: 05.18 to 05.24 of the land market

This week we focus on the monitoring of the 11 key cities, the real estate transaction area of the increase of 8, the largest growth in Beijing chain, reached 25.64%, followed by Chongqing, 24.01%. The market area of the decline in the chain of the city only Shenzhen, Wuhan and Suzhou, the chain decline of 13.66%, 9.57% and 21.64% respectively.　　The overall volume of the property market remained high. However, the biggest aspect of this week is still the land market is often after the Internet quotes 30 times, on-site bidding 89 times, the Beijing capital of the floor to the price of land as high as 15141 yuan/square meters of prices, access to the Canton Canal door 10th. This transaction price is higher than the government to sell 242%, is also the 2004 recruitment system has the highest floor premium.　　After 08 years of low, the land market began to smoke again. The land market is heating up at such a fast pace beyond our expectations. We think this reflects at least two points: 1 the developer's financial pressure is basically no longer a problem. The overall growth in real estate development and the growth in development funds from domestic loans and the upward inflection in the February this year can illustrate this issue. 2 The developer's confidence has returned. At the same time this February the emergence of commercial housing sales growth of the upward inflection point, should be the source of confidence developers. We have observed that the developer's confidence has begun to be transmitted to the growth of the operating area.　　In April this year, although the new area of commercial housing growth rate is still 15.57%, but compared to the March growth has not worsened. Based on the industry to inventory is nearing the end, and the new construction area has not been effectively upgraded, supply will lag behind the demand for growth in the supply pattern, as well as low interest rates and the financial environment of broad credit will not change in the short term, we still maintain the housing market will continue to rebound expectations. Maintain an overweight rating on property stocks. For the land value-added tax, we judge the enforcement will be more in place, mainly based on the current financial pressure around. However, from the listed companies that we have followed, the basic value of the land value-added tax has been fully counted, so the liquidation of the land value-added tax will only affect the cash flow of these companies, without affecting the profits of these companies. As for the "deepening the reform of real estate tax system and studying the levy of property tax" as mentioned by the NDRC, we judge that the focus of the present stage will still be "study" and not "levy".