Shuffle has been to domestic mobile phone transformation face 10 big test

One side is 70% of the market share, a variety of industries have poured in, the other side is a large number of small and medium-sized brand inventory, business closures boss run, domestic mobile phones are experiencing a "gold rush" to "shuffle" the painful process. The scene is like 10 years ago, domestic mobile phone has once cuikulaxiu occupy the domestic mobile phone market "half", waveguide, TCL, Panda, Amoi heavily hit the channel, for CCTV ads, lofty sword refers to the domestic boss.　　But blink of an eye, supply chain, channels, inventory and other issues, domestic mobile phones in a year by Nokia, Motorola and other international brands to complete the reversal. 10 years later, how do domestic mobile phone companies see the new shuffle period coming?　　How to avoid the "samsara" ending in the global economic downturn and the 3G transition to 4G?　　Sohu It has visited a large number of domestic mobile phone companies, operators high-level and industrial chain parties, launched a series of reports to explore the transformation of domestic mobile phones, today for the first article:--"shuffle" has to. Before writing this article, I have with Huawei Terminal Chairman Yu, ZTE Executive vice President Shiyou, TCL Communications China President Wang, Yulong cool to send executive vice President Li and other manufacturers, as well as Shenzhen, a number of small and medium-sized mobile phone brands, operators, channel operators and the industry have discussed this issue.　　Under the façade of prosperity, everyone realizes that a "rainstorm" is far off. There is a very interesting number: Huawei, ZTE, Cool faction will be 2015 as an important time node. But Huawei and ZTE are targeting the world's top five in the mobile phone industry. Why are they all 2015?　 Because the industry generally believe that the second half of 2013 to the third quarter of 2014 will be domestic mobile phone important "Shuffle period", a large number of enterprises will be "out" during this period. Next, we have to comb the domestic handset manufacturers have encountered and immediately face the 10 major test: 1, the market growth rate slowed down rapidly.　　IDC data showed that 2012 global smartphone shipments grew from 63% in 2011 to 45%, expected to be only 24.3% this year, the slowdown is very obvious. And the Chinese market after 2011-2013 two years of "Great Leap Forward", the current quarterly shipments accounted for more than the global 30%. According to the data, the domestic smartphone shipments accounted for 5 consecutive months stable between 82-86%, the rise has been very limited. 2, overcapacity, inventory serious.　　The market growth is limited, a large number of enterprises into the mobile phone industry will inevitably cause overcapacity. "From the beginning of this April, Shenzhen, a large number of small and medium-sized mobile phone companies because of inventory, capital chain broken and the tide of failure, some in Shenzhen for nearly 20 years of Chaoshan and Anhui merchants have withdrawn from the industry." In Shenzhen has 15 years of mobile phone manufacturers vice-president to the author that a large number of small and medium-sized brands of mobile phones were returned by the channel scale, inventory squeeze led to corporate capital chain fracture, many business owners choose to "Run", resulting in sales channels-Mobile phone companies-program integrators-forChain, such as chain bankruptcy, the rest are turned to Apple Samsung's imports or accessories sales.　　Compared with the small and medium-sized brands, domestic brand mobile phone manufacturers have also felt the cold market, such as the first half of this year Huawei P2, ZTE Grand S and other flagship mobile phones have to reduce orders, delay or even cancel the listing, is the internal procurement Department for fear of inventory delays, resulting in the product missed the best sales According to the latest data of the Ministry of Information, China Mobile phone June shipments 42.488 million, the chain down nearly 30%. 3. The loss is the majority.　　Apple and Samsung accounted for more than 97% of the overall handset market in the first quarter of this year, with less than 3% left to domestic brands including "China Cool" Tcl, according to Strategyanalytics data. In fact, the current annual shipments in more than 20 million of the domestic brands of mobile phone manufacturers net profit is within 4%, Lenovo is just out of the loss, research and development and other inputs and outputs completely not proportional.　　Once the market changes, small and medium-sized brands can choose "Cashing" on the go, and shipments of large domestic brand manufacturers will quickly into a dilemma. Just like ZTE's "head" Shiyou said: "In fact, according to the amount of loss, many domestic mobile phone companies have gone bankrupt, but Chinese enterprises and the West, do not lose hands without a card will not quit or resell." 4, the brand is weak.　　Domestic manufacturers have said that two years will be in high-end mobile phones and brand building "last chance", but because of the market and the expected uncertainty, ZTE, cool and so on in the first half of this year have narrowed the budget input, Lenovo this year to invest the largest K900 brand of 70% of the above reportedly from Intel sponsorship. High-end models delay production, brand investment shrinkage, the lack of marketing methods, ZTE, Huawei, cool faction of this traditional business-to-business mobile phone manufacturers have encountered a collective reality problems. 5, carrier contract machine into a "share of poison."　　Through the phone subsidy, the three operators have now occupied more than 50% of the sales channels, but domestic handset manufacturers are falling into a "dilemma" outcome.　　A brand of mobile phone manufacturers in charge of sales business Vice president of the author said, operator contract machine is becoming market share "poison", do not participate in contract opportunities offend operators, shipments are difficult to protect; the contract machine shipped price and was pressed to the cottage price, no profits or even losses; In Guangdong, Yunnan and other provincial China Mobile local companies, has combined with the day language and other mobile phone manufacturers launched a 199 yuan 5-inch smartphone, and even subsidized the 200-500-yuan phone bill. A Shenzhen handset manufacturer's boss laments: "Own cost price all get 260 yuan, this market is too TM metamorphosis!" 7. The channel is in a mess.　　Huawei, cool pie and other domestic handset manufacturers have invested heavily in social channels in 2012, but they are "drubbing". A mobile phone chain channel president after receiving an interview with the author has revealed: "and Gionee this can give the channel side 35%, even 50% of the profit compared to Huawei openedThe start of the high-end mobile phone even given the return point of less than 10% space, not be open to accept is expected. Compared with the public channels of society, the electric business channel is also impacting the pricing system of domestic handset manufacturers. Through the MediaTek solution, a large number of factories in Shenzhen, the threshold for entry into the smartphone industry has been very low, and the electricity business has become the cheapest sales channel. Because there are too many lack of research and development, human and offline channel costs, price warfare has become the only choice for these small brand enterprises. 8. Lack of core technology.　　Although domestic handset manufacturers are claiming a number of patents each year, from the "Century War" between Apple and Samsung, it can be seen that the traditional basic communications patent in the current litigation has not prevailed. Whether the most advanced chips, cameras, screens, sensors and other core components, or operating systems, such as software level, and domestic mobile phone companies have no relationship.　　Compared with Apple, Samsung and other international manufacturers, the lack of core technology of domestic enterprises more like an "assembly line." With the rapid expansion of the scale and the international market, domestic manufacturers in the supply chain, patent litigation, anti-dumping and other issues faced by the risk is gradually increasing. 9, parallel imports rampant.　　The increasingly rampant parallel market is becoming the "killer" of domestic handsets to high-end products.　　Samsung, for example, the four-core, 4.8-inch screen of the Galaxy S3 current price is only about 2400 yuan, the annual listing of Note2 is less than 2800 yuan, which is also a domestic handset manufacturers launched high-end products can not exceed the 3000 yuan this "life and Death Red Line" one of the important reasons. According to Huaqiang North market sources, parallel imports of mobile phone sales have been close to Samsung's domestic sales of 40%,HTC and even parallel imports more than the domestic sales volume. 10, 3G to 4G, the industrial transition will be the deadline.　　10 years ago, MediaTek and other domestic chip companies in the 3G program progress has slowly led to the collective passive domestic mobile phone companies.　　Nokia and other international brands rely on a solid supply chain, as well as the international 3G mobile phone market to bring huge profits, in the Chinese market full range of products to carry out price war, the lack of "nuclear weapons" of domestic mobile phones in this kind of competition in the whole rout, 5 years to collapse. The "Promotion of 4G licences issued in the year" has become a clear request of the State Council executive meeting, the market is expected to be three LTE 4G license before October will be issued in advance.　　According to the position of the top three operators, whether it is required by China Mobile 5-mode 10-frequency or 5-mode 12-frequency, or China Telecom C+W+G+FDD four-frequency products, currently only Qualcomm in the chip can achieve full support and availability of supply capacity, and MediaTek, exhibition and other expected in the middle of next year will not be able to produce similar products. After the official release of 4G license, domestic handset manufacturers are limited by Qualcomm Chip scheme price and patent licensing fees, 4G mobile phones in the price will not be able to open up price advantages with international brands. And after 5 years of 3G market "education" of domestic users, to accept 4G mobile phone speed will be greatly accelerated. Once Samsung and other international manufacturers imitate the second half of 2003Nokia in the Chinese market launched a full range of product price war, channel war and supply chain war, many domestic brand mobile phone manufacturers quickly decline will inevitably.