Ten years ' dream of China Telecom industry

Absrtact: Ten years of Chinese telecom industry dream, look back every moment, full of paradox. March 10, 2000, Friday, the market news face is bland, the Nasdaq Composite Index in the opening up to 5132.52 points, the year's 16th high, almost

China Telecom's ten-year dream, look back at every moment, full of paradox.

March 10, 2000, Friday, the market news face is bland, the Nasdaq Composite Index in the opening up to 5132.52 points, the year's 16th new high, almost a year ago, the new economy is coming to the cry of overwhelming. It was March 10, 2000, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average, representing the "old economy", fell below 10,000 points, with the traditional economic giant Merck, Johnson and Citigroup stocks particularly bleak.

However, after a weekend of March 13, the market ushered in the "black Monday." The same day, U.S. President Bill Clinton and British Prime Minister Tony Blair announced that biotech companies need to publish their research results. This is tantamount to letting companies such as Qualcomm, which rely on patents, give up their patents for survival. Thus, in the Bio-medicine unit after the first plunge, Nasdaq, such as the "suspended" burst, rapid collapse, it stocks, network stocks, telecommunications stocks as the main information technology companies are not spared. Until October 9, 2002, the Nasdaq index fell to 1114.11, or more than 78%.

Under the cover of the nest, how to finish the eggs. As the rising of the internet age equipment business, known as the "New Economic Core enterprise" telecommunications Unit-Cisco stock market value also from the March 2000 peak of 555.4 billion U.S. dollars in the world market capitalisation first, to 99.6 billion U.S. dollars.

China was not the exception in 2000, when the global IT and communications bubble was about to collapse. Overseas listed Sina, NetEase, and the year's E-commerce leader 8848, respectively, the CEO class, the stock suspension and other "courtesy." Sina, NetEase and other stocks are gradually falling to 1 U.S. dollars below. At that time, they as AOL, Yahoo, Amazon and other American internet companies of the clones in China only prevailed for more than half a year.

Fortunately, in the last wave of it-industry bubbles, China's telecoms companies were not deeply involved in the global recession. First, China's telecommunications equipment manufacturers, that year's "great China" business is still stuck in the sales of PBX-oriented state, has not had time to pay attention to the Internet torrent, while the telecommunications operators are busy from the extremely fast development of fixed-line services, 2G Mobile communications business to make money, the immaculate relationship and is in the embryonic state, Since then become the IT industry-led internet ...

Looking back on history, China's telecom industry began its new century in such a big background 10 years ago. The global telecommunications industry from the "bubble bath" in the naked start, after 10 years to complete a self redemption. Behind this barometer of the stock market, what kind of story has the telecom industry played as one of the main characters in the past 10 years? In the 10-year history of China's telecom industry, what trends can be clarified? Telecom operators, the Internet, telecommunications equipment business is the 10 years of the three main characters.

2000-2004: Redemption

In the 2000-2004, the global telecoms industry struggled to redeem itself.

In Europe and the United States, by 2000, 2G Voice network has become popular, which means that their traditional means of making money is facing the limit-where is the new growth? This is the problem they think most. The advent of the internet has allowed them to see a huge blue sea, a potentially doubled market, and thus become embroiled in the feast.

Around 2000, a large number of European operators began to auction 3G licences at high prices, only the United Kingdom 3G auction price of up to 35.3 billion U.S. dollars, Germany as high as 46 billion U.S. dollars. Due to the overdraft construction started around 2000, the fiber utilization rate in the United States was only 10% in 2003, and the operators had a heavy debt burden; affected by this, in 2000 3 years, Ericsson, Nortel, Lucent and other industry top equipment companies have laid off more than 50,000 people, Once in the absolute leading European and American equipment business once faced closure.

China's accession to the WTO in 2000 is the beginning of China's integration into the global information torrent.

From 1999 to 2000, China Telecom Group was split up, Chinese mobile, China Wei Tong, Netcom successively listed, in 2000, when China Unicom was listed in New York and Hong Kong, its operators were undergoing full restructuring.

At that time, China's mobile users were also less than 100 million, only by the 2G market can still achieve rapid development, the international pioneer Huawei's overseas sales also less than 100 million U.S. dollars, but also temporarily feel the waves of overseas markets, and it is in 2000, China's TD-SCDMA has become the ITU choice of the three major 3G standards, Chinese technology has just been exerting its force; In early 2000, China's internet users just broke through 10 million, and the United States broke that figure as early as 1994 ... In 2000, before and after the global IT Industry bubble sound, China Telecom market quietly entered the new century.

Since 2000, Western telecoms operators have spent the most enduring years of their busy search for rebirth: once-leading telecoms, at&t and other operators have been chronically sluggish. Vodafone, Telefónica, which has a lot of business in emerging markets, has struggled to recover from the Latin-America market. These once extravagantly operators rich, suddenly had a frugal day. Affected by this, Western telecoms equipment makers, battered by the bursting of the bubble, have become chatter-peddling hawkers, urging operators to upgrade their technology ...

The Chinese operators have just ushered in their golden age. Before and after 2000, the development of China's market-controlled switchboard is still continuing, GSM expansion, CDMA new and PHS unexpected fortune let Chinese equipment manufacturers to evade the biggest wave of shock. Although Huawei has since called for "winter", as a whole, Chinese companies have benefited enormously from the Chinese market's own burst of demand, in which Huawei and ZTE have seized on the opportunity to differentiate themselves from the 2G mobile communications. 2000 Huawei sales revenue of 15.2 billion yuan, ZTE sales revenue 4.5 billion. 2001, Huawei's sales revenue of 25.5 billion yuan, ZTE sales revenue of 9.3 billion yuan, Datang sales revenue of 2.05 billion yuan, the dragon sales only a few hundreds of millions of-four representative enterprises have a huge dividing line, not in the Chinese market, but in the grasp of the 2G opportunities and enterprise system.

At the same time, the city suffered a cold winter in the Chinese internet companies, accidentally picked up a life-saving straw thrown by China Mobile. November 2000, the Sydney Olympic Games held, at that time also young, rich in the spirit of China Mobile, launched the "Olympic News" SMS services, and through the promotion of the SP, such as Sina, this is the prototype of Mobile dream network, but also to the Japanese NTT Docomo mode–compatible imitation. However, it is such a small, seemingly obscure application, saving almost the entire Chinese Internet industry, Sina, Sohu, NetEase three portals, as well as Tencent, TOM, Hurray, well-informed and other enterprises in the long period of time after almost all rely on the SP to survive. By the spring of 2001, hundreds of SPS joined the mobile Dream Network, then in 2002, several major portals began to profit, and by 2004 China's 12 Internet companies listed overseas were earning more than 50% per cent of the mobile dream Network. It can be said that, because of SP business, China Mobile, China Telecom, Unicom has played a great "redeemer" role.

The internet, then, is like a small branch on the infrastructure of telecoms operators, such as the scraps who eat the cold.

2004-2008: Resurrection

The recovery has always been a slow climb from the abyss, and it is generally believed that the inflection point occurred in 2004 years. It's a turning point because, in 2004, Google went public. It is different from the original portal yahoo--just disguised as the media, but also different from the ebay--just put the traditional auction online, it is a new market and a new business model.

2004, for domestic operators, in some vigorous surface news behind, indeed there are many quiet turning: The beginning of 2004, people saw the 4 major telecom operators of the comprehensive listing, saw several major operators shift, but less concerned about the year began to promote the "Village Village Pass project." This is a political task, but also a major city users of the growth slowdown, the first time the number of stitches in the net break 10 million, transformation has become the proposition of all operators ... Overseas, Japan's NTT DoCoMo the first large-scale construction of 3G commercial network, marking the European and American operators have reached the bottom of the road, began to seek recovery.

In the 2004, when the 3G concept can no longer impress the injured operators, Europe and the United States to accelerate the expansion of equipment to the Asian-African region, one side of the arduous, after several years of restructuring in order to rebirth. Cisco, Nortel, Ericsson, Motorola, Lucent, Alcatel, Siemens, Nokia and Marconi dominated the telecoms equipment industry in 2000. Today, the map is beyond recognition-Nokia and Siemens merged, Alcatel and Lucent merged, Nortel has collapsed, Motorola's telecoms equipment business was sold to Nokia Siemens and Ericsson bought Marconi.

At the same time, ZTE and Huawei have come out of China, and are finally gaining opportunities to showdown with rivals in overseas markets, based on a slowdown in telecom technology innovation, increasing concern among operators, and the efforts of Western rivals to save themselves, the Chinese market as a base, and the enterprise's own effort.

In the 2003, Huawei has invested heavily in internationalization, and in 2005, ZTE finally began to go out on a strategic scale, and in 2008 ZTE, Huawei's international market revenue accounted for more than half, and become the world's main players in the telecommunications market. 2008, the Chinese 3G tender, two companies equal, occupy the overall market share of nearly 70%, but also for the globalization of the two to create a more solid rear base.

This is a long, in the global telecommunications market scale is stable, the plate changes inevitable. Ericsson, Nokia and other manufacturers are first aware of the importance of globalization, early in the Latin American market layout, and reduce labor costs, and Nortel, Motorola and so on are too dependent on North America, Western Europe and other markets, the cost of the era of competition after the arrival of the seed. In the huge plate vicissitude, the North electricity's rise and fall most representative. The 2000 Nortel revenue reached $30.3 billion trillion, with a market capitalisation of $267 billion trillion – compared with inflation, the world's biggest wireless device maker Ericsson earned less than $28 billion in 2009. January 14, 2010, Nortel formally to the stock exchange for bankruptcy protection, the same day, the company's share price plunged 60%, the market value of 159.2 million U.S. dollars, a century dynasty pathos.

From 2004 to 2008, when the global telecom operators and equipment manufacturers were busy with restructuring, China's internet industry was "subterfuge", and the SP and CP of telecom operators became an independent industry. If the 2005, Shanda listed in the United States, found the SP, CP, outside the first profitable "business model" network game, after Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent listed, internet companies have jumped out of the carrier's fetters, to develop a search, e-commerce, IM and other territories, Become an independent and booming industry. This is a quiet revolution compared with the 2000 bubble era.

2008-2010: transmutation

A global financial crisis rocked the world in the 2008. China's 3G tender, which began in the year to come, has always been the world's biggest telecoms topic.

In the 2008, Chinese operators began a new round of restructuring; in 2008-2010, western it media had little interest in the topic of European and American operators, whose core coverage was replaced by news from India, China, Brazil and other internet companies such as Apple, Google, Facebook and Twitter. This is a new inflection point.

After 10 years of development, telecom operators are facing a choice. Chinese fixed-line users have started to drop, mobile users have been close to 900 million, the distance saturation is not far; Once billion PHS customers are rapidly losing to 10 million, once up to 5000 or even 8000 yuan of fixed-line installation fee, although has become free, but if not because of ADSL, Many families will stop the fixed line; Chinese netizens never reach 10 million to over 400 million, the Internet is no longer exclusive to the highbrow, but permeates every ordinary person's life.

However, in the feast brought by the popularization of Internet applications, operators share Limited ... Is it OK to just mount the 4g/lte and make the freeway wider?

Since 2000, internet companies have stood in the middle of the stage by 10 years. Previously, China Mobile could spend a few hundreds of millions of on Tencent, which relies on the SP business, which has more than 40 billion dollars in today's market. Once condescending telecom operators, but now trapped in the 2G business saturation, 3G application of the dilemma, the future may be faced with the plight of increasing profits. The SP enterprises that were redeemed were also treating operators as "plumbers": thunder, Youku and other network downloads and video enterprises, enjoy a huge bandwidth; Tencent, Baidu and other enterprises through their own unique business advantages have achieved success; Companies such as Apple are "bringing users to the operator", Share the biggest benefits of wireless broadband ...

The internet, without a doubt, has changed history with immeasurable power, and this change may take only 10 years.

When we comb the 10-year history, we see a main line from the development of telecom industry: How to transfer from traditional voice application to data application with Internet as an opportunity. Specifically, from the fixed network point of view, is from the modem dial-up Internet access, to ADSL Internet access, and then to FTTx Optical Network, from the point of view of mobile networks, from GPRS to edge, to 3G, and then to lte--these but the same story of the continuation of a continuous increase in investment, continuous road repair process.

The internet is an important driving force for this road to become more and more wide. Since 2000, data applications have been launched, the popularization of the internet accelerated, 10 years, the telecommunications industry all the turbulence and transformation of the motives, all from this--operators, equipment manufacturers, internet companies have quietly shifted the pattern: in the 2G era hegemony of the European and American equipment decline in 3G, the Internet company is no longer the operator's dependency, Operators are building more open platforms, and equipment makers are busy transforming.

2011: reengineering

10 years later, the global telecommunications industry has completed a cycle of self redemption, turned around, and suddenly discovered that they are straying from the center of the stage; Over the next decade, the telecoms industry may be indistinguishable from it and the Internet industry--a convergence that is equivalent to more network channels for internet companies, For the traditional IT industry and communications industry, they have to end their closed, exclusive history, there is no alternative to the transition.

Back to 2000, the market has overdrawn the future of the Internet in almost a year. 10 years later, Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook have become the new Internet, they survive in the bubble, and gold, they step on the body of countless internet companies to become the giant of the new economy, "mobile internet" has become today's "dream" of the Internet, Even one of the main drivers of growth in telecoms. This is a paradox, and if operators and device operators cannot change the old operating model, they will surely face the challenges of the Internet upstart.

From the telecom operators, in the past 10 years, although the telecommunications operators have the best resources endowment, but in addition to Japan, South Korea and other few operators, most operators at home and abroad have generally missed their own transformation into an Internet operator opportunity. However, now the operator's development space is facing the bottleneck, only two choices: either, their full participation in the Internet platform operations, such as the maximum control of mobile internet platform, to avoid becoming a fixed internet age "bystanders", or, to be early layout, become a network of things operators, Cloud computing infrastructure-------------------the enterprise's mechanism, enterprise's strategic insight and implementation ability

Telecoms manufacturers must be transformed. On the one hand, the operators themselves face the dilemma, requires business transformation, equipment operators must take the bus; On the other hand, if they grow up in the telecoms market alone, they face the ceiling, they must transform from a single manufacturer to a diversified manufacturer, from "telecoms equipment manufacturers" to " Information equipment and solution providers "--but, because of the differences in corporate genes and the nature of their resources endowments, the transition is not easy.

In fact, Nokia, which ruled the mobile phone terminal for 10 years, at a time when smartphones and networking came to an end, Cisco, for years, has relied on a lot of acquisitions, especially at the Web-application level of acquisitions--IPTV companies, Web conferencing companies, Internet software companies, etc.-to seek a new foothold, Thus escaped the Northern electric type annihilated; ZTE, Huawei and other Chinese manufacturers have recently announced the internet of Things, cloud computing strategy, and the traditional IT companies head-on confrontation, with the intention to extend from the traditional telecommunications industry to new areas, while the chip manufacturing in the upstream field, to achieve the vertical integration of industrial chain is a long-term trend.

For internet companies, they are taking advantage of the widening telecommunications road to launch a rapid enclosure movement. In the network advertising, business-to-business E-commerce, network games have matured, network community, micro-blog, group purchase, such as business E-commerce is rapidly developing. Although the early stage of many markets have been set, but with the help of wireless and wired broadband development, internet companies still have a lot of market opportunities, all depends on innovation and development speed.

At the same time, as the department's Ministry of Management, one of its motives is to promote the integration of industrialization and information, for information to drive the growth of work, in order to create a more open telecommunications platform for the construction of better industrial policy, for the next 10 years, China can produce more such as ZTE, Huawei such excellent companies.