The shadow of the bright future: the spread of fakes

This year, the only product will be the stock price rose, a leap into China's fourth largest internet company, and with the United States excellent products, the Beijing-east listing, as well as Dangdang earnings, the entire electric business plate is magnificent.

However, the recent with the United States excellent products by the media exposure to fake, orchid pavilion set potential losses, and recently the entire electric business plate and some slowed down.

It is worth noting that, in late September, the imminent landing of the U.S. capital market Alibaba, is also a concept of the electric business unit. As Ali comes on the market, the electricity business sector may also be volatile in the near future.

However, from the industry point of view, although the domestic first-tier cities in the electric market has become saturated, but the mobile electricity dealers, cross-border electric dealers of traditional retail changes have just begun.

Electricity quotient plate starts to weaken

Although this year the best performance of the plate, but the recent trend of the concept of electric business is not optimistic.

First is the May this year, the listing of the United States, the shares on the new exchange after the rally, on August 15, hit a record high of 37.99 U.S. dollars, then the stock price all the way down, as of September 5 close to 28.82 U.S. dollars, a half a month down 24%.

Dangdang has Nyse:dang from the second half of last year and climbed to $18.66 a 3-year high on March 17 this year, after a wave of callbacks and a gradual rise in share prices this May. Recently, Dangdang's downward correction was the start of the August 14 disclosure of earnings, which plunged nearly 7% per cent on the day. Although the results show that net profit hit a record high of 28.8 million yuan, reversing the loss of the same period last year, but as of September 2, Dangdang's closing price of 14.14 U.S. dollars, compared to the August 13 earnings before the top 16.17 U.S. dollar fell nearly 14%.

"Poly United States excellent products, only the product will be the previous rally led to the entire electric business plate, or even make this plate led the whole of the stock." "Wang Yahi, an analyst with analysts in the 21st century Economic report, said," but, in the near future, the overall stock has been twists and turns, the trend of the electric business sector or by its implications.

"The weakening of the electric business plate does not rule out the influence of Ali." Wang Yahi also said to reporters, the impact of Alibaba listing can not quantify, but the general industry trend is that investors or funds in a plate has a fixed allocation of funds, investment companies will not be too much to hold a certain plate company's shares, especially Ali is essentially the concept of electricity quotient, and other companies have a certain competitive relationship, So they sell other electric-market shares and buy Alibaba.

In fact, this is the current industry on Alibaba listed a major argument.

However, there is another voice, once Alibaba listed, it is also possible to rise together. "There is a valuation of the problem, no previous company can compare with Jingdong, but after Ali listed, there are relevant data to check the market capitalisation of Jingdong, markets will be adjusted." Wang Yahi told reporters.

The above phenomenon is especially evident in the two stocks of auto and easy Car network. Last December, Auto on the NYSE, the IPO valued at $3.17 billion, and the net was only 1.26 billion dollars. Although the car net in the market share last in the auto, but the two in the business model is very similar, suddenly led the easy car network. As of September 5, the net market value of 3.857 billion U.S. dollars, and auto's market value has reached 5.057 billion U.S. dollars.

In fact, Wang Yahi told reporters, the impact of Alibaba's listing on the concept of electricity is logically clear, but the eventual flow of money is unknown.

And from the microcosmic level, the weakening of the electric business sector also involves the specific situation of some stocks. A U.S. stock analyst, who declined to be named, told the 21st century economic reporter that the capital had maintained high losses; The profit margin of poly-Mei products not in accordance with the U.S. General accounting standards, the year-on-year decline in the quarter, the net profit chain decline; These factors, in the market fluctuations in the situation, this plate can easily have greater volatility.

The ruin of the fake in the blue sea

Although it is a burning money and fierce competition in the field, but the field of electrical business is still recognized as the blue ocean.

According to the Guangdong Securities Research and Development Report, in the second quarter of 2014, the domestic net shopping market continued to maintain rapid growth, the market size grew 47.1% to 628.8 billion yuan, and the trend of online shopping and mobile is accelerating. On the one hand, with the Beijing-east, gathers the United States to lead the new round of the year to promote the promotion of the market, led to a year-on-year growth of 84.4% (year-on-year consumer-to-consumer growth of only 26%), accounting for the market share of the net increase of 9.1% to 45.2%.

On the other hand, with the popularity of smartphones and the maturity of mobile payment technology, mobile electricity market is a blue ocean. Data show that the mobile shopping market in the second quarter of this year a big increase of 232%, accounted for the market share of the net purchase 14.9% to 26.8% Year-on-year, and only the goods will, Poly-Mei excellent products such as limited to the special selling mode to cut into clothing, cosmetics and other impulse consumer goods, such as the vertical electricity quotient, mobile end accounted for up to 50%.

In addition to the rapid growth of the mobile end, according to the General administration of customs data, China's cross-border electricity dealers in 2013, the turnover of 70 billion yuan, and the Electronic Commerce Research Institute of China E-commerce Research Center monitoring data show that from 2008 to 2013, cross-border electricity quotient turnover of the annual composite growth rate of 31%.

In an interview with a 21st century economic reporter, U.S. stocks analysts said that the E-commerce field is the same as the traditional business, and the scale of development will be pursued in a certain degree. "Looking back over the past ten years, Suning, Dangdang, Macquarie and other companies listed, each round of the electric dealer listing is magnificent." "The industry itself is expanding fast, and it cannot measure its market value with profits," the U.S. stock analyst told reporters.

"China is a country where traditional channels are very weak, and companies such as commodities will be able to fill the gaps in the line," he said. It is a trend for electric dealers to become the main retail channel, but it is another matter whether they can be valued so high. The analyst said.

However, even if the industry has a large blue sea, but the "fake" and other issues have been plagued the industry's healthy development.

At the end of July this year, some media has burst into the United States and the third party watches merchants "Cheung Peng Heng Industry" suspected of selling fake, in order to original or purchasing name, through the Electronic Business platform sales luxury goods. Subsequently, the poly beautiful product issued a statement said, has closed "Cheung Peng Heng Industry" shop, all merchandise has been from the third party platform emergency off the shelves to stop selling, and provide unconditional return. But then, the shares of the United States and the U.

The same "fake door" also occurred in another mother and infant electric quotient "Honey Bud Baby" body. There are media reports, the company a variety of products appear fakes, such as Honey Bud Baby on the line to sell a batch of maclarenquest children's trolleys, a consumer after the purchase through the Maclaren Margeroland official micro-blog Inspection cart VIN number was told that there is no such VIN code, buy a cart for fakes.

Although Honey Bud baby then made a denial, but the impact on the brand is still very large. Honey Bud Baby CEO Liu in an interview with the 21st century Economic report, said that this is the factory illegal shipments of the problem, and Margeroland brand to combat factory illegal shipments, so it is defined as fake. "We were deceived by dealers because we could not take the goods directly from the factory, and the authorization provided by the Distributor was forged." Liu said the trolley brand had no Chinese distributor and had a 10-year labor dispute, and there was a standoff between the factory and the brand.

"Maternal and infant category is a high-risk category," We are particularly concerned about the safety of this category, and when someone said that our platform appeared fakes, it is easy to become a target. Liu to reporters, even if there are overseas procurement of small tickets, overseas direct mail domestic logistics number and various declarations, but it is difficult to be believed.

Although at present, many brands have begun to attach importance to the electric business channels, in a number of days on the platform to open authorized stores, but there are still some brands of the Chamber of Commerce on the electricity business Channel worry, fear of low-cost sales under the influence of the interests of agents, some foreign well-known brands also do not have the Among these brands, the mother and infant industry and cosmetics, luxury goods.

How long will the fake problem continue in this industry? The issue of fakes has been in the traditional retail sector and is particularly prominent in non-standard categories, so it is now the only product, Jingdong and the east, which may reduce the likelihood of fakes, said U.S. analysts. However, since many categories are difficult to self, how can we guarantee no fakes on a third-party platform? This is a paradox. The analyst said.