09mba national line [Eastern line + comprehensive line + English line] analysis, for reference only.

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Qlh 20090415

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I have been waiting for the [Eastern line] of the national line. I also want to analyze it. I have different opinions. Please discuss the line.
If you do not view the analysis and only the results, move them to the end;
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The bottom line of A's four major schools [except Peking University] is 155 points,
1) The national line is less likely to be greater than or equal to 155. If so, this year the Ministry of Education has really achieved an MBA of 1%.

B. If the Ministry of education takes into account the incorrect question [impact of 30 points],
2) The National Line <= 145 is more likely than 49%.
2.1) among them, the national line = 145 is less likely. The Ministry of Education is not an idiot [only subtraction, too mentally retarded] 10%
2.2) Therefore, less than 145 minus 2-3 points is more likely, taking care of many marginal quasi-MBA students, and eliminating the impact of incorrect questions.
2.3) less than 141 of the national line is less likely, and the Ministry of Education has no face. 10%

C. In addition, considering the impact of the incorrect question event [30 points], the Ministry of Education does not want to be difficult-looking, but simply reduces the score by 30 points, and wants to keep the score cut below 30 points;
The possibility is 50% between and.
3.1) the dividing line is "150", which is equivalent to removing and subtracting 25 points. The possibility is relatively high, just 5 points less than the base score of several famous schools.
3.2) The possibility between 151-154 is relatively small. 1%
3.3) less than 150 minus 2-3 points is more likely to be 50%
3.3) 146 less likely 1%

According to this analysis, I personally think:
1) 147-150 is more likely and 148 of the scores are most likely;
2) The second is 142-145 and 142 of the score is the most likely;
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PS: 09-year score line:
Tsinghua: 195/155 Peking University: 184/160
Shanghai Jiao Tong University: 185/165/155 Fudan: 185/165/155
National line [Eastern line]: 148, 142, 150 ......?
08-year score line:
Tsinghua: 215/185 Peking University: 205/185
Shanghai Jiao Tong University: 215/190 Fudan: 215/205/195
National line [Eastern line]: 175-30 = 145
Many accidents occurred in the scores of different schools this year. I personally think that the scores of the above four major schools are of great reference value, especially the scores of Tsinghua;
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For your reference only. I hope you can think rationally.

We should make rational analysis;
Even if the final result is unsatisfactory, don't worry too much and be brave enough to face the reality;

PS: I will sort out my ideas and post the analysis process later;
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Then we will analyze the controversial synthesis:
A first, consider whether to divide
1) there is very little possibility of not dividing the overall information. Shanghai Jiao Tong University is a positive practice [the Ministry of Education estimates that he is also happy to agree with this practice], but he will not learn it and cannot afford it, it's too big, too small, 1%.

How much should B be divided? According to the impact of 30-point incorrect questions this year, it is certain that the score line will be around 30 = 78 points in 108; the possibility of a comprehensive line <= 78 or less is 39%
2.1) The comprehensive line = 78 is unlikely. As mentioned above, the Ministry of Education is not an idiot [only subtraction, too mentally retarded] 8%
2.2) 75 <= comprehensive line <78 according to the above analysis, the total score has dropped a lot this year. If the Ministry of Education can actually give the examinee a satisfactory result, this is possible, but I guess it's not a huge 30%
2.3 Comprehensive line <75 very unlikely 1%

C's comprehensive score line is likely to be less likely than 20 = 88 points in 108, which will lead to public anger. In this case, if it is> = 85 or above, it is also 1% less likely.

D. The most likely comprehensive line range should be 79-84;
4.1) Dropping 108 minus 30 points and adding 2 points, which is exactly 80 points, may make the Ministry of Education expect a score of 50%.
4.2) 79 points less likely 1%
4.3) 9%-84 possibility

According to this analysis, I personally think:
1) The possibility of a score of 80 is the highest;
2) followed by 75 <= comprehensive line <78 ;--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PS: Tsinghua: 100/85 Peking University: 90/80
Shanghai Jiao Tong University:-/-Fudan: 105/100/90
National line [comprehensive line]: 80, 75 ......?
08-year score line:
Tsinghua: 120/100 Peking University: 120/110
Shanghai Jiao Tong University: 120/110 Fudan: 130/120/110
National line [comprehensive line]: 108-30 = 78
This year, the scores of different schools have many accidents. I personally think that the scores of the above four major schools are of great reference value, especially the scores of Tsinghua;
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Analyze English again .......
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In terms of English, the examination has a relatively small impact, which may be a line that the Ministry of Education will not consider too much during division;
If the Ministry of Education has already taken into account the impact of incorrect questions, I think this year's English division should be based on the last year's score of 54;
A: The English score = 54 is less likely. I cannot say no. I personally think the Ministry of Education should not use the score line of 1% last year;
When I just mentioned English division, the Ministry of Education should not worry much about it. If we follow this idea, it is very likely that the score line is greater than or equal to 56, it is not controversial. [the correct question is 30 points not in English, but in mathematics]. But I have observed the English scores of the four famous schools, especially the lines of Tsinghua, which are only 50 and less than 55, I think again
The score may be close to 50, but I found that last year's English score was less than 54 of the national English line, I analyzed the possibility of English exceeding 54 In this year. 70%
In addition, the Ministry of Education is well-founded because the incorrect questions are not in English. In addition, the overall score will inevitably lead more candidates to pass the examination. In this way, the English score is more likely to exceed 54;
Next I will analyze the situation of more than a few points. I don't think it will be too much. If it is too large, the impact will be poor;
2.1) English> = 58 possibility 10%
2.2) I personally think that the English score line will be generated in three ways: 55, 56, and 57, especially 56, 60%.
C. In addition, it may be between 50 and 53, and there is a possibility, especially 50 points, not too large, 20%
D. In addition, there may be a possibility that the score is less than 50, especially 48, which is 9% likely.
According to this analysis, I personally think:
1) The possibility of 55/56/57 points is the highest, especially 56 points;
2) about 50 points, especially 50 points ;--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PS: Tsinghua: 60/50 Peking University: 60/55
Shanghai Jiaotong University: 65/60/55 Fudan: 70/60/60
National line [English line]: 56, 55, 50 ......?
08-year score line:
Tsinghua: 60/50 Peking University: 60/55
Shanghai Jiao Tong University: 65/60 Fudan: 65/60/55
National line [English line]: 54
Many accidents occurred in the scores of different schools this year. I personally think that the scores of the above four major schools are of great reference value, especially the scores of Tsinghua;
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I have not confirmed the information collected from the above data source network. If there is any inaccuracy, please point it out.
I analyze and predict based on the existing data for your reference only.
Based on the above analysis, we can conclude that:
1) 148-150 [148]/80/55-57 [56] This score line is most likely to be 70%, and the difference between the upper and lower 2-3 points is not ruled out;
In particular, 148/80/56
2) 140-145 [142]/75-78 [75]/48-52 [50] The second possibility is 20%. The difference between 2-3 and above is not ruled out;
In particular, 142/75/50
3) The Shard line exceeds the first possibility of 9%;
4) The score is at the bottom of the second possibility of 1%;

 

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