6.26 Stock Disaster Memorial

This year experienced the rise and fall of the bull market, after a 6.26 plunge, the entire round of stock market profits all vomit. The root of the return is the pyramid to add more, Shanghai 2500 to more than 4,000 has been small funds small bets, walk stop, May end of the brain cramps suddenly transferred money to the stock account, originally wanted to play new, The result unconsciously in 5.27 add to full position, and still single pressure a stock, then full position ushered in 5.28 plunge, June also has been reluctant to concede defeat, persist until now, again in 6.19, 6.26 two times plunged in feel deep despair.

If we sum up now, I have made two taboos in this big loss:

• The bull market in the high-level additional funds, so that the cost increases, but also bear the high market at the risk of re-position;
• Single-Bet too bullish on the fundamentals of stocks, give up the combination;

In fact, before 5.27, I have jiancang ready to play new, Reason told me 07 years of 530 massacre will be staged, and the creation of the bubble and more than 2 trillion of the risk of leverage at any time will erupt, from now on, so the premonition has been achieved, but I still do wrong, although the election of the stock gains are small, the valuation is very low, But in the face of systemic collapse is also pays top academics, no resistance.

First fight and then win, is for the defeated army trailed of the road, first wins and then spoiling , is for the name of the road.

Buy at a price that has a margin of safety , which requires a more accurate valuation of the company's fundamentals, and this is the most likely to cause market differences in the place, low PE may be at the peak of the cycle industry traps, high PE may be the beginning of the growth industry outbreak. But there are a lot of legion in the bull market when the high PE shares are totally the game silly games, so reasonable practice may be not understand rather miss, also can not speculate silly, only earn to understand the money.

Resist the temptation to earn fast money , if you can not resist, suggest to see the Belt and Road and Gem June 15 trend, for no performance support after the explosion must be a plunge, we can not predict when the bubble burst, but as long as the bubble will be shattered to be enough A lot of people who have been singing more than a reasonable person think that time will dissolve the overvalued value, but rational investment should not be expected to pay for the next 10 years, it is the angel and the wind to do things, stocks should behave more like a spot market, try to encourage the hard-working faction, rather than the dream faction.

give up the forecast of stock price fluctuation , people's greed always want to earn every rising wave, avoid every falling wave, so confidence to stock price short-term rise and fall bet, when win a few times, inflated speculators finally likely to explode in the most confident of that speculation; since volatility is unpredictable, Does that fluctuation mean nothing to investors? Graham argues that when prices fall sharply, they offer investors the opportunity to buy, when prices rise sharply, giving investors the opportunity to sell , which means that the right mindset for volatility is to underestimate buying and over-selling, which earns the expected profit from growth and profits from market volatility.

The establishment of portfolios, concentration and diversification is also a debate on investment, even if investors in a company in-depth fundamental research, the Company believes that the price of the enterprise is far below its true value, it may still be due to black swan predicament, such as the impact of melamine on the dairy industry, plasticizing agent on the liquor industry hit, The accident is unpredictable, so it's hard to avoid a landmine when a stock is full, and portfolio investment can avoid the Black Swan incident.

The term pair , investors may lose money at the price of security marginal protection, because in a bear market, underestimated can always be underestimated, which can be explained by Soros's reflexive theory. So even after buying a stock at a price lower than the intrinsic value of the firm, the investor may soon suffer losses, and no one knows how long it will take for the return of the value, and if the investor buys and only plans to hold half a year or more, the investment is more like a bet that the stock price will rise in half a year or a month; In the short term (for example, within 3 years) it is best not to invest in the stock market, because you are likely to be forced to cut the meat out without waiting for a return on value.

The attitude towards technical analysis , which is somewhat like the weather forecast, predicts the future according to historical statistics, but the weather forecast can be thought of as science, because the causal relationship of the climate is relatively fixed, and the causality of the stock market is less certain. Stocks are likely to continue to rise, may also immediately callback, similarly, the fall may rebound, may also continue to fall, trying to use technical analysis to predict the volatility of the stock price is also unreliable, if the week K and K will not cheat, can reflect the medium-term, long-run trend, then the day K this short-term fluctuations can only be explained by the If anyone wants to predict the price movement of tomorrow, it can basically be attributed to jumping the big God. On snowball often see some big V to emphasize "fundamentals + trend" operation strategy, it seems to reduce the cost of the price of investment, the pre-judgment of the trend in the unilateral market may be more reliable, but the change in the bull and bear transition is still very difficult to predict.

Low risk arbitrage weapon spectrum , such as hit new shares, convertible bonds discount arbitrage, they trade discount arbitrage, grading Fund merger/redemption Arbitrage, Ab/ah stock arbitrage, the period is now arbitrage;

6.26 Stock Disaster Memorial