6‰ is cost-effective-details on renting a house or purchasing a house

Nowadays, house prices are rising, and the majority of people are afraid to buy a house. Some scholars jumped out and said, "A house can be rented if you cannot afford a house. If you are not a resident abroad, you will have a house ". Some listeners think it is appropriate. I don't take it for granted. If the house price goes up, can the house rent not go up? Can the house price and the house rent be streaking separately. Can't you eat rice ?!!

House price reflects the relationship between supply and demand, but rent reflects the relationship between supply and demand. the supply and demand of the house price is reflected by the investment speculation. The rent only reflects the actual reflection of the real residence and the absence of empty houses; that is to say, the rent reflects the supply and demand relationship more timely and accurately than the house price.

In a short period of time, the house price can be streaking away from the rent (the real relationship between supply and demand), but in the long run, the house price must return to the rent, and the ghost of the house price must return to the rent.

For example, for a new house with a price of 1 million in Shanghai, the rent can only be received for 2000/month. According to my formula, if the rent does not change much, this House can only be worth (2000/6 ‰) = 0.34 million yuan.

I am a financial engineer with a master's degree. In the face of the current grim housing price situation, I often find myself in a lot of comparisons, hesitation, and thinking, whether to buy a house early or late, or rent a house without buying it, finally, I am determined to use my professional knowledge to calculate it. I can give myself a clear understanding and give it a reference (I just posted an article and I feel like I have modified it, directly post the computing process for better ):

1. I suppose it's a new house, new decoration, new home appliances, ordinary property, and inflation.

2. Suppose that the interest rate is 0.0588 (maybe I should consider inflation, but inflation is going up, and the loan interest rate is not only 0.0588, it will also rise, they have a correlation, therefore, considering that inflation does not affect the algorithm for the time being, the current price of the house is 600000. Assuming that the new house can still be used for 68 years after it is ready, no matter how it is, it is impossible for everyone to change their hands while raising the price, besides, the people who finally take over are also the people, and the cost-effectiveness ratio must also be considered. If the rental price is for 68 years, it is still the relationship between the rental price and the original house price. Unless the rental price increases in the future, the residual value is 80000 in 68 years.

3. The net rent coefficient refers to the rent received, which is then deducted from the landlord's expenses such as the property and the necessary decoration fees for every 10 years. Assume that the property fee is 6% of the rent, the rental value of 5 months for each ten-year decoration expenditure, the depreciation of mandatory household appliances, and the rental depreciation expense of 3 months per ten years, the net income coefficient is 88%, considering the time value, assume that the net harvest coefficient is 90%. This part of the landlord does not have to bear the tenant, so it is also a difference, so it should be included in the comparison, assuming that only 90% of the rent received is the landlord's net income.

4. Assume that the rental coefficient of the old house is 1-year/150: that is, the old house in 10 years is less than the new house's monthly rental fee (10/150) = 0.0666, that is to say, the old house will receive less rent than the new house.

5. Conclusion: if the above conditions are met, the gross monthly rental income must reach 3625. The ratio of gross monthly rent to current house price is about 6.05 ‰, and the cost of purchasing a house and renting a house is equal to that of the current house price, if it is less than 6‰, it is obvious that renting a house is more economical !!!!

6. The calculation process is to calculate the annual rental fee from the monthly rental fee, and calculate the current value based on the interest rate of 0.0588, the cumulative present value is compared with the original 0.6 million price to know how much the house price can be recovered.

7. The calculation process is as follows:
Computing process
Annual interest rate annual rent current value house changes old affect rental coefficient monthly net rental income
1 0.0588 36729.3 0.9933 3241
2 0.0588 34456.8 0.9867 3219
3 0.0588 32323.3 0.9800 3197
4 0.0588 30320.6 0.9733 3176
5 0.0588 28440.6 0.9667 3154
6 0.0588 26675.9 0.9600 3132
7 0.0588 25019.5 0.9533 3110
8 0.0588 23464.8 0.9467 3089
9 0.0588 22005.7 0.9400 3067
10 0.0588 20636.2 0.9333 3045
11 0.0588 19350.9 0.9267 3023
12 0.0588 18144.8 0.9200 3002
13 0.0588 17013.0 0.9133 2980
14 0.0588 15950.9 0.9067 2958
15 0.0588 14954.3 0.9000 2936
16 0.0588 14019.2 0.8933 2915
17 0.0588 13141.8 0.8867 2893
18 0.0588 12318.7 0.8800 2871
19 0.0588 11546.4 0.8733 2849
20 0.0588 10821.9 0.8667 2828
21 0.0588 10142.3 0.8600 2806
22 0.0588 9504.8 0.8533 2784
23 0.0588 8906.8 0.8467 2762
24 0.0588 8346.0 0.8400 2741
25 0.0588 7819.9 0.8333 2719
26 0.0588 7326.6 0.8267 2697
27 0.0588 6863.9 0.8200 2675
28 0.0588 6430.0 0.8133 2654
29 0.0588 6023.1 0.8067 2632
30 0.0588 5641.6 0.8000 2610
31 0.0588 5283.9 0.7933 2588
32 0.0588 4948.5 0.7867 2567
33 0.0588 4634.1 0.7800 2545
34 0.0588 4339.4 0.7733 2523
35 0.0588 4063.0 0.7667 2501
36 0.0588 3804.0 0.7600 2480
37 0.0588 3561.3 0.7533 2458
38 0.0588 3333.7 0.7467 2436
39 0.0588 3120.5 0.7400 2414
40 0.0588 2920.6 0.7333 2393
41 0.0588 2733.4 0.7267 2371
42 0.0588 2557.9 0.7200 2349
43 0.0588 2393.5 0.7133 2327
44 0.0588 2239.4 0.7067 2306
45 0.0588 2095.1 0.7000 2284
46 0.0588 1959.9 0.6933 2262
47 0.0588 1833.3 0.6867 2240
48 0.0588 1714.6 0.6800 2219
49 0.0588 1603.5 0.6733 2197
50 0.0588 1499.5 0.6667 2175
51 0.0588 1402.1 0.6600 2153
52 0.0588 1310.8 0.6533 2132
53 0.0588 1225.4 0.6467 2110
54 0.0588 1145.4 0.6400 2088
55 0.0588 1070.5 0.6333 2066
56 0.0588 1000.4 0.6267 2045
57 0.0588 934.8 0.6200 2023
58 0.0588 873.4 0.6133 2001
59 0.0588 815.9 0.6067 1979
60 0.0588 762.2 0.6000 1958
61 0.0588 711.8 0.5933 1936
62 0.0588 664.8 0.5867 1914
63 0.0588 620.7 0.5800 1892
64 0.0588 579.5 0.5733 1871
65 0.0588 540.9 0.5667 1849
66 0.0588 504.9 0.5600 1827
67 0.0588 471.2 0.5533 1805
68 0.0588 439.6 0.5467 1784

68 0.0588 19720.8 80000
Current Value of the final residual value: 599773.8
599773.8 is about equal to 0.6 million of the house price, indicating that the present value is equal, that the moon to pay 3625 of the house price to make back 0.6 million of the house price, it indicates that the cost of purchasing a house and renting a house is equal to about 6.05 ‰. if the cost is lower than 6‰, it is obvious that renting a house is more economical !!!!
Many houses in Shanghai and Beijing do not have a ratio of 6.05 ‰ at all, indicating that the house price is too high, indicating that the house price ghost is already out of the house rent, and soon it will return to the body.
The above Article refuted the rise in house prices. The students who postpone buying a house share the post for us !!!!!!
For details, see:
Http://blog.focus.cn/group/blogforum_detail.php? Blog_id = 2607256 & msg_id = 48566077