A discussion on prophecy (Oracle) ____oracle

Smart contracts are expected to revolutionize the way humans, machines and organizations build their contractual relationships.
Everything from property ownership to financial instruments to the day-to-day activities of the family can now be implemented as a piece of code that is deployed in a publicly verifiable shared ledger, a publicly verifiable shared account called a block chain. This code can be called "smart" in many ways: it is automated, modular, and can significantly reduce the transaction costs associated with the contract. However, it is not very good at receiving and validating the ability to come from outside information. For example, an insurance contract can be programmed to automatically pay the owner a certain amount of compensation when the car is damaged, but it cannot independently assess the damage.
Because of the gap between the block chain code and the real world, some seers are needed. In the case of block chains and intelligent contracts, the prophet is an agent responsible for locating and validating events in the real world and submitting this information to the block chain for use by intelligent contracts. This agent can be software, hardware, or human.
The software-based prophet can be used to search and analyze the text of information, but it is difficult to solve information classification and fuzzy event judgment. The most direct scenario for such a prophet might be to validate events that occur in other block chains. The hardware prophet may involve sensor data submission and application to the IoT scenario. In the near future, human prophets may also be the main form, because they can view or query the results of events independently.
Either way, the Prophet provides an essential service to connect intelligent contracts and distributed autonomous organizations with real-world data and events.
Predicting markets rely on prophets for market mediation
At the end of each market, a prophecy must enter the outcome of the event. This input is used to measure predictive accuracy and to determine the value of shares (share). Some events are easier to verify than other events. For example, if the definition is clear, the price of a particular electronic currency at a specified time can be validated by a section of code that accesses the Exchange API and submits validation data to the associated smart contract. Other information is hard to verify, such as whether science has made a breakthrough, and this kind of hard to verify information will benefit from manual input. The Realty Keys Service has provided a prophet solution for automatic event checking and cryptographic prophecy submissions. Recently, Oraclize offers a similar solution designed for the etheric square distributed application.
Using only one prophet the mediation of events can cause problems. For example, some events may require expertise, or an absolute number of events may exceed the processing power of a single prophet. Another concern is the risk of cheating participants, a prediction of the share of small probability events, and the decision to develop events towards this outcome. This led to an unscrupulous prophet's chances of making a big profit. If the winning outcome of a sporting contest predicts that the market is made by a single prophet, the odds are 20:1, and if the Prophet buys a share of the latter, and makes the corresponding resolution, it will guarantee a huge gain. If the profit from this strategy is greater than the expected return of running an honest prophet, and the risk of resorting to the law is lower, then the rational (albeit very immoral) decision is to deceive the market and give up the service of the prophet.
To meet these challenges, we have established the market for the prophet.
Through the Gnosis (gnosis) interface Anyone can sign up for the services provided by the Prophet. Prestige can be lifted by connecting to a Twitter account. terms, fees and specialization can be specified by the Prophet at login. Market developers can choose an arbitrary prophet to make a resolution for the event.
To further improve security, you can choose a combination of prophets for event resolution. For example, the creator of the market can choose 5 Prophets to make a resolution, and judge the result of an event by the principle of minority obedience. The risk of a margin loss is predicted by the way a prophet submits a deposit to create a lie or attempt to lie to the event. In extreme cases, market participants can challenge the resolution and push the resolution to the second step we call the "Ultimate Prophet".
The ultimate Prophet will be "what is the result of this event." "This issue creates a market. Participants can bet on both sides of the market. After the betting period, the 24-hour timer starts. If at the end of 24 hours the outcome of the event is still the same, the market will be closed. In this market, the winner of the party will be rewarded, the failure of the party to produce losses. The original market in accordance with the results of this two-level market to make a resolution.
Reality keys and Oraclize will be included as the initial prophet solution, but we want all kinds of seers to flourish and encourage interested people to register as Seers. Existing data providers will be able to develop into seers through the market of seers. Examples include Bloomberg financial market data or ESPN sports market data. In addition, a savvy independent vendor can subscribe to these data services and then share the information on the chain. Professional prophet of the open market, the ability to build multiple prophets resolution, the worst case scenario in the Prophet decision making ability, combine these to produce an ideal prophet solution with time efficiency, cost efficiency, scalability and high read security.
With the booming economy based on the block chain, the Prophet's ecosystem can develop into a bridge between the digital world and the physical world.
The participants who are able to provide accurate information to the digital economic ecosystem are likely to receive profit opportunities. We envision three forms of interaction: Prophets uploading Event results, predictive markets for open probability aggregation calculations, and private data sales. Gnosis (Gnosis) provides solutions for the first two interactive ways. Our market can be customized to explore any possibility of determining events. These estimates can be used by external intelligence contracts to determine the price of an insurance service (for example, the market determines the cost of housing insurance based on disastrous weather) or trigger a contract event (if the forecast falls below the price threshold to sell goods). Predictive submission can be used directly as an intelligent contract trigger or to predict market decisions. In this process, we strive to provide a long-term and complete solution to the potential and decision outcome data in the digital economy.

The original author Matt Liston, who went to the center of Self-Government Strategy expert
Original Address Https://media.consensys.net/2016/06/01/a-visit-to-the-oracle/?from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0

Link:
http://www.realitykeys.com/
http://www.oraclize.it/

Translation: http://ethfans.org/posts/161