Competition and uncertainty

The sky drops a huge pie

Case 1: There is only one person around and no one else
Case 2: there are only two or three people around
Case 3: countless people

For Case 1, we can basically make sure that this pie is the only one.
For case 2, it is a little complicated. We can estimate the possible results based on the height, height, and height, distance, and the relationship between them.
In case 3, no one can reasonably estimate his outcome in advance (it is acceptable), and the ownership of the pie cannot be predicted. Of course, after the event, anyone can find a variety of reasons to explain the cause and sum up experience, but what about the next time? Will history react? The answer is obvious. Even if all the conditions are the same, the outcome is still uncertain, and history may not be repeated! Replaying is just a coincidence. It is only wishful thinking to emphasize that history will react, because it will predict the future and gain benefits, but this is not the truth.

Obviously, the differences in situations 1, 2, and 3 and the degree of behavioral uncertainty (predictable level) play a decisive role in the competition mechanism, whether the competition is sufficient, and the intensity of competition.

Speculative markets are precisely the places where competition is sufficient and fierce, and it is difficult to predict local behavior. Relying on prediction to obtain benefits is not feasible, and the effect is equivalent to hitting the big runner. What we can do is to seize the certainty of the market: the competition caused by the nature of Capital's interest acquisition will inevitably eliminate the "excess" interest space to form a value regression.

The uncertainty of future behavior depends on the competition environment. The competition in the speculative market is fierce and it is difficult to predict future behavior. Otherwise, enterprises with special status, Monopoly, or absolute competitive advantages will have low uncertainty in the future and can make rough estimates. Most of the enterprises selected by Ba fitt belong to this type. However, to ensure investment security, you still need a discount opportunity based on the facts when buying an enterprise, it is used to buffer the potential risks of future uncertainty (uncertainty is not necessarily a risk or unexpected benefit). It is called "security boundary" by Mr. Graham of fitt ".

Value investment is based on the facts that have taken place. After obtaining the real benefits, we can look forward to the future of security. Even if the future is not as expected, we can continue to retreat. Although the value investment method looks forward to the future, the security of investment does not depend on it, which is essentially different from the decision-making method.

Those who believe that value evaluation must rely on prediction of the future to obtain benefits are subjective guesses that do not know much about value investment methods.

Uncertainty is not the name of an irregular generation. It is just a pattern. (See the chaos principle)
Uncertainty is not the name of a risk, and it may be unexpected benefits. In a competitive environment, increasing uncertainty to cover up its own regularity is exactly the most effective way to reduce risks (such as the confrontation between the two armies and some fair gambling ).
Uncertainty is not the same as unknown. Unknown means that there are predictable rules, but they are not yet known. Uncertainty refers to the failure to grasp its law and turn it into known, so there is no need to waste effort in this direction to make unnecessary efforts.

Uncertainty means uncertainty, which is an inevitable attribute of a fully and fair competition environment.