Critical Point in the chaotic world (Game Theory tricks)

There is a small pond outside a small village in France. People take water in it, while children take a bath in it. There is a lotus flower in the pond. Every day, the lotus flower grows freely. A group of frogs swim freely and dance over the lotus leaf. According to linear thinking, it is almost impossible to cover the pond.

 

However, one day, a little sewage flow into the pond, the sewage just contains the lotus booster, so that the growth rate of Lotus grows exponentially, the number of lotus leaves doubled every day. It only takes 30 days for the entire pond to be filled with lotus leaves.

 

But no one noticed the changes in the pond in the first 28 days. By 29th days, the village Staff noticed that half of the pond was suddenly filled with lotus leaves, and they began to worry, but at this time they could not do anything. The next morning, the whole water was filled with lotus leaves.

 

Since Newton, straight lines and simplified ideas have been dominant in our minds. However, in recent years, many scientists have found that the world is not that simple, it does not develop in a straight line, but evolves in the influence of association and interaction. That is to say, the world is full of unpredictable chaos, which cannot be understood by linear thinking. The formation of most ecological crises is like this, and the extinction of species is also the case. At the beginning, it is often difficult to find that, after a long period of slow decline, it will soon disappear.

 

In his book "The World in balance: ecology and the human spirit", former Vice President Albert Arnold Gore of the United States introduced a study by American physicists pubuck and Tang Chao. During the study, they let the sand drop by grain, forming a pile of increasing gradually. With the help of slow video and computer simulation, accurately calculates the movement of sand particles at the top of a sandpile. In the initial stage, the sand falling has little influence on the overall sandpile. However, when a sandpile increases to a certain extent, even if a grain of sand falls, the whole sandpile may collapse. Buck and Tang Chao proposed a theory of "self-organizing critical.

 

When the sandpile reaches the "critical" state, each grain of sand and other sand are in a "solid" state. At that time, each new sand will produce a kind of "Force crossing". Although it is tiny, it can pass through the "whole" contact throughout the sandpile and pass the collision to all the sand, the structure of the sandpile will gradually become fragile as each grain of sand falls. Which of the fallen sand may trigger the whole body, resulting in structural imbalance-collapse, or collapse.

 

This is similar to the slang from Arabic Culture: "The Last straw from a camel ." Put a straw on a strong camel, and the camels did not respond. Then they added a straw, and the camels did not feel anything at all. Keep adding straw to the camels. When the last light straw is put on it, the camels will finally fall to the ground. In sociology, someone named the principle of this role "the straw principle ".

 

For this phenomenon, scientists believe that in a linear system, the whole is equal to the sum of all parts, therefore, every part of the system can do its own thing freely without having to care about other parts. This makes math analysis easier. WhileIn a non-linear system, the whole is not equal to the sum of all parts. It may be greater than the sum of all parts, because everything in the system is associated..

 

Looking at Nonlinear Systems in physics, biology, or sociology, we often find that their basic composition of individual and basic organizational rules are not complex. HoweverThese simple components automatically interact with each other, and the complexity occurs in the Organization.An individual in a system may interact in countless ways.

 

It is precisely because of the countless possible interactions that nonlinear systems present a series of features that are totally different from our previous understandings and break through our most bold imagination. The conclusion that the most enlightening and Scientific Connotation and philosophical charm of this system is that, once a non-linear chaotic system surpasses its diversified critical points, there will be explosive changes, and once the original balance is broken, it will not be able to recover on its own.

 

We can use it to observe many phenomena that occur in human society, and maintain the ancient species and ecosystem for millions of years in a far, stable manner, why does it destroy or evolve into a new species at a certain moment in the geological period? Why did the super-powerful Soviet regime collapse in just a few months, and the power collapsed in less than two years, and there will never be any hope of combination.

 

It may be too late to notice the problem. The cause is a small "lotus leaf", or even smaller than the lotus leaf. The contingency factors of each related object contain information about the inevitable outcome of the object. A very small incentive, with the participation of internal and external factors, sometimes has extremely significant and extremely complex consequences.

 

What's important is that we can also combine this observation with game theory to guide us in how to adopt better strategies in chaotic systems.