China Mobile wins now, China Unicom and China Telecom win the future

China Mobile received a pass from China tietong to enter the fixed network. China Unicom's GSM network and China Netcom merged into the new China Unicom, and China Telecom received China Unicom's CDMA business, the three carriers have mobile and fixed network services respectively. China Mobile is better at mobile communication, while China Telecom is better at fixed network.

Many people hope to break China Mobile's dominant position through restructuring. In fact, it is unrealistic, unless China Mobile is split rather than China Unicom. From the perspective of future industrial development, traditional fixed network services are hard to compete with mobile communication, but the new emergence of Fiber-to-the-home represents the future hope. Although the rise of 3G can also provide several hundred megabytes of bandwidth, there is still a long way to go over the mobile Internet with several Gbit/s of bandwidth from optical fiber to household.

The rapid development of the Internet will drive the rapid development of light to households, which is also the core advantage of traditional fixed network services. After all, many optical fibers have been laid to the last mile, even if China Mobile merges China tietong to catch up with new China Unicom and China Telecom, it is clearly not possible to achieve this in a short time. Although China Mobile can take the lead in 3G promotion in the future by leveraging its advantages in GSM, from the perspective of global 3G promotion, 3G promotion is not much faster than fiber-to-households. With the development of the industry, the total business volume of China Mobile and China Unicom and China Telecom will be balanced.

From the perspective of industrial development, 3C integration has become an irreversible trend. The rise of household appliances, especially online TVs, will gradually free consumers from simple computer and even mobile Internet operation modes, the total number of Fiber-to-household services is also greater than 3 GB. China Mobile has to continue to monopolize its telecom services for the past 30 years in Hedong and Hexi.

Although it is widely spread that China Mobile will obtain td cdma licenses, China Telecom will obtain CDMA, and China Unicom will obtain WCDMA licenses, it is difficult to make a careful analysis. After all, the TD-SCDMA technology is relatively backward compared with CDMA and WCDMA, in particular, the participation of well-known international brands is still rare in TD. If China Mobile only obtains the TD license, it will definitely limit the competition of 3G in the future. If China Mobile also obtains the TD and WCDMA licenses, it is also possible that TD will die. The only way is to use time to make a judgment. If TD can gain some advantage before the issuance of a 3G license, it is very difficult for China Mobile to obtain a WCDMA license, if TD is not born, China Mobile will inevitably obtain a WCDMA license. I do not know whether the current status of TD is related to the unfavorable promotion of China Mobile.

From the perspective of mobile communication technology development, the restructuring of China Mobile will obviously not break the dominant market structure of China Mobile. The future of 3G is also full of variables, obviously, China Mobile has won the present, while China Telecom has won the future. (Author: laomiao)

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