Technical Analysis of learning points

The "no loss" series was originally intended to write ten parts, but they gradually found that these so-called "No loss" methods are related to basic investment skills. Therefore, this series will end early. As a matter of fact, many of my friends may not be able to understand how the so-called technological inflection points are formed when reading the previous sections? Is there any way to master those skills? Today, Yang Tao will talk about his experience in learning technical analysis.

According to the general efficiency market view, if technical analysis is not useless, it is useless at least. In their opinion, investment to make money does not need to rely on technical analysis-even basic analysis is useless, not to mention others-instead, just throw a dart like a gorilla. Fortunately, Xiao Tao is not a disciple of efficiency market school. He does not need to have any frame to limit himself. As long as he can make money, how can he manage it!

In Yang Tao's experience, technical analysis is not useless, but many people do not have the core tips. To make money in the stock market, Xiao Tao must learn at least three technical analysis methods:

First, about the time.

In terms of market time, many cycle rules seem effective. Common examples include fixed period, measurable period, and special period.

The so-called fixed period refers to the period in which some people find that there are 10 trading days or 20 trading days in a round of market. Using this pattern to study the market, that is, starting from the bottom, it will reach the top after 10 trading days. Or, from the bottom, it takes 10 trading days to reach the other bottom. And so on.

When there are too many research cycles, you will find that the fixed cycle is basically invalid. Different technical analysts can select different cycles, and the final result will inevitably start from 1 to 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ...... Even 1000, every number can be seen as a period. This will fall into ignorance. Therefore, it is a lie to set a period. (On the day, the week and the year are the same. If you talk about a period with Xiaotao, Xiaotao can ignore it)

The measurable period does not regard the period as a final conclusion, but thinks that different quotations have different periods, but there will be a resonance relationship. As a result, researchers are looking for the regularity of the two rounds of similar market cycles. The academic term is "public ". Simply put, it will think that the last top to the bottom is 220 days, and the last bottom to the top is 130 days. From the new top, another turning point may occur after 130 days, 220 days, or 350 days (220 + 130.

This research seems to be effective. However, if there is enough data and it is difficult to isolate special periods, it makes no sense to be public. In addition, the technical measurement requires a large amount of computing, so the effectiveness is not high.

These two cycles are actually not reliable. This is also the cause of every criticism in technical analysis-At the end of measurement, every date may become a turning day, and prediction will become worthless.

In practice, Yang Tao put a little effort into the cycle of the Fibonacci series, that is, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 34 ...... That is, each new number is the sum of the first two digits. According to the historical rules, the inflection point of the stock market may only occur after 8, 13, 21, or 34 trading days. Xiao Tao can check the historical K-line chart of the Shanghai Stock Index, and naturally find relevant rules.

When using the SDK, you can pay attention to the fact that, starting from a certain bottom, the increase may be weak after 13 or 21 trading days, when necessary, you can set up appropriate stop loss points to prevent changes. And vice versa. On the same day, the same is true for 13 transaction weeks or 13 transaction months.

In addition to the usage of this period, most of the other periods can be ignored. If you want to study a little more, you can look at the solar term date in the Chinese lunar calendar. The 24 solar terms every year are often a turning point in the market. Pay attention to it, because it is a fixed period and is not very effective.

Second, about space.

If the prediction time is difficult, the prediction space becomes relatively easy. The prediction of space in technical analysis mainly includes two series. One is the golden split number and the other is a multiple.

The prime split number is a series of numbers such as 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.667, and 1. Its core is the golden split point 0.618.

Let's assume that a stock has risen from 10 yuan to 20 yuan, and then there is an adjustment, where will it stop falling? This is a problem that is frequently considered in practice. At this point, the golden division rule plays a role: it may "drop to increase" by 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.666. That is to say, it has risen by 10 yuan, and the future adjustment may fall by 3.82 yuan, 5 yuan, 6.18 yuan or 6.66 yuan. This means that it will appear at the stop position of 16.18 yuan, 15 yuan, 13.82 yuan or 13.34 yuan. In practice, Xiao Tao can wait in advance at these points. If it does not move, or even starts to rise, you can consider buying again.

Similarly, if a stock falls from 20 yuan to 10 yuan and then returns a rebound, its possible rebound height is most likely at 15 yuan, that is, half of the rebound. Other optional positions are 13.34 yuan, 13.82 yuan, and 16.18 yuan in sequence.

Multiples, including 0.5 times, 1 times, 2 times, 3 times, or even 10 times. That is to say, a stock has risen from its lowest point of 10. The most likely level is 15 yuan, 20 yuan, 30 yuan, or even 100 yuan. If Xiao Tao buys a stock, finds the lowest point before it starts, and calculates the multiples of the increase, it can be expected to reach its possible height in advance. Of course, it is up to raise the target price.

After understanding this rule, you can at least find a point in practice that makes you feel safe.

Third, about strength.

Time and space can be measured, but the most valuable short-term technical magic weapon is actually the measurement of strength. Is the rise of the market strong? Is there enough space to go up and down? It is necessary to study the strength.

There are two types of indicators for determining strength and strength. One is angle and the other is amplitude.

The so-called angle is to connect the starting point of the market with the ending point, and then draw a line in the horizontal direction to see how high the angle is. For example, a stock rose from 10.1 yuan to 10.8 yuan in 10 minutes. Xiao Tao can hide the intermediate process between 10.1 and 10.8, connect the two points, and draw a horizontal line starting from 10.1 yuan, see what the angle (elevation of angle) is during the rise --

It's not slow. You can draw images on different hosts, with different angles!

-- If Xiao Tao can raise such a question, it means it is too good. Yes, the horizontal and vertical coordinates are actually relative. You can use any securities software to draw a line on the platform provided by the software. The purpose is not to determine the angle, it depends on the quote following it, which is different from the perspective.

For example, after rising to 10.8 yuan, it began to adjust and fell to 10.6 yuan in 30 minutes. At this time, Xiaotao draws a line between 10.8 yuan and 10.6 yuan, and draws a line horizontally at the starting point of 10.8 yuan to see how much angle is ).

Of course, Xiaotao does not need to have specific numbers. You just need to take a look at it. Compared with the rising time, It is larger or smaller. Yes, it's small. It's much smaller. This is our conclusion: the rise is strong and the decline is weak, so we can be optimistic.

Do you understand? If you carefully write down the above process, you will understand that the key to the so-called strength is the angle. The second is the amplitude.

The so-called magnitude is that this process has increased by 0.7 yuan, but the decline is only 0.2 yuan, less than half of the increase (0.5, here we use the golden division rule ), that is, the adjustment is not very large and can be optimistic.

In turn, if it increases by 0.7 yuan, but falls by 0.5 yuan, more than half, it will be a little too large to adjust.

Note: The half-point, that is, the 0.5 position and the 0.618 golden split point, are two of the most critical support resistance levels and are also the most common problems in the study.

Yang Tao does not want to talk about more details. Even in the above part, market veterans are not very excited. However, if you are a newbie, please read it repeatedly and draw a line on the software. Then you will understand it gradually.

Well, in this section, we have learned time, space, and strength. It is the least valuable technical analysis. In Yang Tao's view, the most valuable aspect is strength. If Xiao Tao has thoroughly studied the strength, it will be a waste of water to do it in the short-term.

Except for the above three points, other technical analysis indicators are certainly useless. Don't spend time on them, what's the K line, moving average, form, wave, macd, And Bollinger line, and so on. Everything is useless. If Xiao Tao feels that a certain technical indicator is quite useful for a while, it seems a little valuable. He can only say that his level is too poor and he hasn't gotten started with investment. Yang Tao, Jin Yu liangyan, told Xiaotao: Don't waste your time on technical analysis. It is enough to learn a little time and strength!

Current Interaction:

Letter from Xiao Tao:

Instructor Yang: Hello!
I have read your quick short-term and asked you if you have any questions. Article 4: "From two o'clock P.M. to 15th 15, 2.4, please purchase at the right time. Purchase points should, in principle, be dominated by a breakthrough in the new high, or when the new high is adjusted to be in place. "So," breaking through the new highs "is the day's new high, the week's new high, or the history new high? "When the adjustment is coming soon" how can it be regarded as the adjustment? How should we observe it?

Brief comment: we have learned the problem of strength in this section. We should be able to solve the problem of Xiaotao, "what is the adjustment in place ". Look at strength, angle, time, and space.

Yang Tao reminded Xiao Tao to pay attention to one point: in terms of Strength Research and line drawing, it is effective in daytime transactions. You can draw on a one-minute line chart, you can also draw images within 15 minutes or even 30 minutes, on a daily basis, or on a weekly basis. This is true for individual stocks, as well as for the market and futures. Therefore, it is a well-developed method.

There is no other way to do a good job of Short-term. If you draw 10 thousand lines above, you will surely become a short-term master.

Yes, 10 thousand