How long will 5G be left to the 4G window?

How long will 5G be left to the 4G window?

5G is too early. This is the opinion of telecom equipment manufacturers in the early 2015 S. However, just a few months later, 5G has been regarded as the time when operators still deploying 4G networks began to talk about 5G or 4.5G during the transition from 4G to 5G.

According to the Global 5G development plan, 5G standards were formulated in and commercially available in. This means that the network will be deployed in and the 4G period will be 3-4 years. Starting from the issuance of 4G licenses at the end of 2013, the deployment of 4G has not been completed for less than two years, and hundreds of billions of investment has not yet entered the reporting period.

Therefore, how to effectively protect investment in the 4G Era, while enjoying the innovative development brought about by 5G, it is still possible to run the old 2G, 3G, and 4G networks simultaneously.

 

5G: Do not patch 4G

Although the industry does not have a specific definition of 5g, key technologies and indicators have been unified. In the future, 5G users can experience 10 Gbps speed and 1 ms latency. If you are not sensitive to this data, it takes 6 seconds to download an 8 gb hd movie in a 5G network environment and 7 minutes to download it in a 4G network environment, in a 3G network environment, it takes more than 1 hour.

Such a fast network speed and low latency meet the increasing global connection requirements. According to Ericsson's mobile report, by 2020, advanced mobile technology will be everywhere, and smartphone users will reach 6.1 billion, which is more than doubled from today, the number of globally interconnected terminals will reach 26 billion. Such a large connection will not only be confined to the connection between people, but also the connection between people and things.

The rapid development of the Internet of Things requires not only the network capacity, but also the number of connections that the network can provide. The industry predicts that by 1000, the capacity demand of the mobile communication network will be times that of the current network, and the number of connections will be 10-times that of the current network.

Obviously, the existing technology cannot meet such connection requirements, and even a simple upgrade of the existing network cannot meet such connection requirements. "We often have a vague understanding about whether a 4G upgrade can be changed to a 5G upgrade. We must first emphasize that it is technically impossible to achieve 5 Gbps through upgrades. We should not expect that the 5 Gbps experience can be achieved through some patching and upgrades on the existing LTE standards ." Hu Houyi, the rotating CEO of Huawei, said in an interview with NetEase technology and other media.

Therefore, 5g technology is not a simple upgrade, but requires a revolutionary breakthrough in the blank port technology and network architecture.

Magnus Ewerbring, Ericsson's Asia Pacific Chief Technology Officer, also told Netease that 5G technology is based on the evolution of existing technologies and can be fully backward compatible. operators can make full use of their existing investments; the other part is more revolutionary.

When will the investment of over billion in 4G be paid off?

As mentioned above, 5g technology is not a simple upgrade of 4G technology, but an innovative technology. So, is it too early for Chinese operators who are building 4G networks to talk about 5G?

At the end of 2013, China issued 4G licenses, and the construction enthusiasm of operators for 4G had been soaring. Wang Xiaochu, chairman of China Telecom, said at the 2014 performance conference that China Telecom's capital expenditure for the year 2015 was 107.8 billion yuan, and 4G would account for the majority, with 61 billion yuan for 4g construction.

China Mobile data shows that China Mobile's 4G Capital Expenditure in 2014 is 80.6 billion yuan, and the estimated 4G network investment in 2015 is 72.2 billion yuan.

China Unicom is also expected to invest billion yuan in 4G every year.

The industry expects that 4G investment of the three major operators will be nearly 2015 yuan in 200 billion. From international experience, it usually takes 7-8 years for 3G and 4G networks to return on investment. The 4G network investment of the operator is only two years. It can be said that the network investment cost of the operator's hundreds of billions of yuan has not been recovered yet.

Therefore, 5G network construction must take into account the operator's investment in the existing network. "Therefore, 5g innovation is a package of innovation. It is not just technological innovation, but also business model innovation ." Hu Houyi said, "From the business perspective, there must be a very smart strategy to manage the evolution process so that operators can maximize the commercial benefits of investment ."

In this regard, Ericsson also believes that there has been a huge investment in technology from the operator's perspective, and the operator hopes to make use of the existing investment. Therefore, the evolution of 5g technology and revolutionary innovation complement each other. Only in this way can the operator's network develop continuously and achieve seamless connection.

According to Hu Houyi, in terms of network construction, Europe, America and Asia are very different. Asia is the most diversified region. There are not only the most developed markets but also the least developed markets. Some countries and regions still rely on 2G networks to solve the rural coverage problem. Then, for countries and regions that are not sent to, operators may have to coexist on 2G, 3G, 4G, and 5G networks for a long time in the future.

Therefore, the concept of G has emerged in the industry.

Make up for the 4.5 GB of blank window period

In Ericsson's view, 4.5g is not a standardized concept, but a marketing method. But for domestic operators, the G technology is an important supplement before the commercial use of 5g. It is an innovative technology that provides more commercial opportunities for operators and protects their investment.

In order to improve the peak rate and system capacity of the LTE network, China Telecom proposed the concept of 4G + (or 4.5G) based on the 4G network of Tianyi, using the carrier aggregation technology, increase the mobile network download rate to 300 Mbps, the current fdd lte peak rate is 150 Mbps, TD-LTE peak rate is 100 Mbps.

Wang Xiaochu, chairman of China Telecom, said that 4G + will be officially launched in some cities in August 1 this year to provide users with a higher speed and richer business experience.

After China Telecom's 4G + concept was proposed, China Mobile and Huawei proposed the TDD + concept.

As a key component of 4G, TDD + can achieve 5 times the spectrum efficiency compared with 4G, so that it can apply higher spectrum, respond to rapid traffic growth, and support most of the foreseeable future services. TDD + can be compatible with existing 4G network devices and terminals, and maximize the ROI of the carrier's current network.

"We selected several typical TD-LTE markets and found that the capacity that TD-LTE networks can provide today is at least seven times different from the total capacity demand in 2020. Based on the current TD-LTE Network Technology and spectrum is difficult to meet this demand. The evolution of TDD technology is only available to address this practical demand ." Said Wang Tao, president of Huawei wireless network product line.

It is reported that only China Mobile will deploy 1.2 million TD-TLE base stations by the end of this year, such a large-scale investment, the need for continuous evolution of the network and cannot be completely re-launched, therefore, TDD + is required for carrier investment protection, continuous evolution, and better user experience.

For the communication industry, G is a technical entry point to seize the blank window of the 5g market.