IT industry prospects

1. The IT industry must be no longer honored

   After reaching its peak in 1999, the IT industry has been declining until now. In the best time, about 2.5 million people have been engaged in the IT industry in the United States, and there are about 2.1 million. In the past three years, a total of 1 million people have been commissioned and about 0.6 million new recruits have been recruited. Up to now, 0.4 million of the jobs have disappeared forever. Of course, some of the 0.4 million jobs have been transferred to India and China.

   
   Factors that determine the future development of the IT industry include:
   1) demand in the IT industry will increase after the economic recovery
   2) It jobs transferred to India and China will increase significantly
   3) it itself will not produce great changes and will not open up many new job opportunities like the Internet.

   
   Among the three factors that will develop in the future, the trend of it moving to India and China will become stronger and stronger. This trend will eat up the new job opportunities after the economic recovery, so that in the next ten years, it work will be declining, but it will eventually stop at a certain number, I guess it is about 1.5 million, not too low. This number is just an uncertain estimate. It cannot be relied on, but it is roughly the same as the estimate in Business Week.

   2. There are still many opportunities in the IT industry, but they have already been greatly reduced.

   The IT industry can be divided into pure IT companies, IT departments, and IT service companies. Pure IT companies are companies like Microsoft that provide IT products. The company's IT department is the biggest IT talent demander and ensures the normal operation of it. IT service companies provide services to the company's IT department, including outsource and consulting.

   Pure IT companies are divided into big IT companies and small IT companies. Large companies like Microsoft, IBM, Oracle,
   SAP is constantly integrating with the IT market. In the end, they may occupy the big wall of pure IT companies. Small IT companies rely on venture capital to support the company, which has closed down about 30% to 50%. Some people say that 70% of the companies will close down in the end. Although venture capital in the software and IT service industry is still at the forefront of other industries, compared with the past, it is only equivalent to the level in 1996. In this way, the survival of small companies will become increasingly difficult in the IT industry. It is very likely that a few years later, pure IT companies may concentrate on several companies, and it is difficult to see the glory of thousands of companies in the past.

   After this bubble, almost no internet company is listed. Gradually, the Internet will also focus on yhoo, eBay, iaci, AMZN, expe, AOL, MSFT, and other companies. The new startup may also be difficult, google is probably the last highlight.

   In this way, there may be very few new job opportunities in pure it and Internet companies.

   The company's IT department is the mainstream of IT outsourcing. On the one hand, IT outsourcing will greatly reduce the company's IT department
   But it will also increase the number of IT service employees. In the future, IT service companies will greatly increase, but it is at the cost of reducing employees in the company's IT department. The total number should decrease.

   In the end, pure IT companies will remain the same, the company's IT department will decrease, and the number of IT service customers will increase.
   The number will decrease. However, this trend will be very slow, and the difference will be seen within 5-10 years, but it will not generate any turmoil in the industry, and it will never be as intense as the previous three years.

   3. IT skills are becoming more and more standardized, resulting in the future salary being flattened or even lower than other industries.

   ItProgramIn the past, it was mainly C ++, but now it is mainly java. With the application server
   The development of the company's it is greatly simplified. In the future, skills will mainly be concentrated in Java + WebLogic (WebSphere) and Microsoft C #. With the increasingly improved standardization, this kind of skills will become easier and easier to get, the lower the creative requirements of work and the low wage pressure in India and China, it wages will naturally decrease in the future. Currently, a Senior Programmer is about 0.1 million yuan. In the future, it is likely to be the same as the salary of a senior analyst alanalyst, ranging from 70 thousand to 80 thousand.

   
   4. It will not disappear, and wages will not fall too low.

   Although there are so many negative statements, it will never disappear. manufacturing in the United States has been moving out since 1960s, and a large part of it is now in the United States, it will only be a process of gradual development, and the number of projects that can be moved out only accounts for about 20% of the IT industry. Most IT jobs cannot be moved out.

   It also has certain skills. It is an industry that requires a university diploma. The wage level is naturally guaranteed, just like the financial industry, which has a history of over a hundred years, now it stops at the level of 80 thousand yuan. I think it will also stop at this level in the future.

   Although there is a bubble in it, the IT industry itself is real, which indeed greatly improves the efficiency of the company. It is evidenced that every job has a computer on its desk, this was impossible before 1980. The IT market is quite large. There are not many industry opportunities of 2.1 million people. It jobs are second only to agriculture, far surpassing finance, insurance, chemical and other industries. It is silly to blindly think that it will disappear. It will begin to go downhill, but it is far from time to time.

   5. China and India will have a time-consuming demand for IT growth, but low-end demand

   As it moves outside of work to China and India, it needs in China and India will increase, but these increases are reflected in the increase in low-end and Middle-end programmers. On the one hand, it is because the work of external migration is mainly program development, and on the other hand, it is because the purpose of external migration is to reduce overhead. In this way, we blindly think that the U.S. It is going downhill, and we will go back to China for it. It is not a good move to think that China's It is going up. In China, the number of IT employees increases, rather than opportunities increase. The opportunity remains in the United States.

   Conclusion

   It will gradually lose its glory, and return to its essence, and finally it senior engineer in the United States
   The salary is about 80 thousand yuan, and the number of IT employees will be maintained for a long time, although the number is indeed decreasing slowly. China and India have large IT staff needs in recent years, but they are concentrated on the number of employees rather than opportunities to rise. Opportunities in the U.S. IT industry are now in IT service companies.

   If you are studying it at school, you don't have to worry about it, but it is not as good as it was before, but it is still the same as other industries, and it is not worse than other industries. If you are working on it now, there is no need to consider switching. This is an industry with a large demand. It is only due to the previous bubble that leads to the complexity of IT personnel. After a while, it will be slowly called back to the normal state, and the supply and demand are basically balanced like in the financial industry. It is normal to feel lost, but not from the top of the valley, but fell to the ground, without the top of the good scenery, the ground is the same as other industries.