January 2015 "China Chengdu Hardware Electromechanical Index" sentiment index analysis

January 2015 according to statistics, by the New Year's Day and seasonal factors, commodity prices continue to decline and domestic and foreign market demand overall continued weak, order growth continued to fall in three factors, manufacturing enterprises slowed down production and business activities, February is expected to continue to decline in hardware and electronic market overall sales But in terms of market conditions and confidence, or there will be a small increase, because after the Spring festival in February, with the temperature of the industry recovery, the market will gradually enter the new Year's first procurement small season

One, January 2015 hardware market overall analysis

"China Chengdu hardware Mechanical and Electrical index"--the economic index is through the investigation of the market scale, environment, confidence and other quantitative data, at the same time to collect various industries monthly turnover, turnover and quantity and number of incoming data after a comprehensive calculation, is to reflect the current month and even recent market dynamics of the authoritative data indicators.

January 2015 According to statistics, the New Year's Day and seasonal factors, commodity prices continued to decline and domestic and foreign market demand overall continued to be weak, order growth continued to fall back three factors, manufacturing enterprise production and operation activities have slowed down. The National Bureau of Statistics shows that January manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, down 0.3% from last month. At the same time, affected by international oil prices and the price of bulk raw materials, the price of some important domestic production prices deepened in January this year, PPI fell 1.1%, down 4.3%. Statistics show that petroleum processing, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, petroleum and natural gas, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing four industries are the main source of decline, the factory price of their industrial prices fell 22.7%, 11.5%, 32.9% and 6.7% respectively. In addition, real estate market data show: affected by the same period last year, prices continue to decline, 70 cities in the new commodity residential prices rose in the city only 1, 64 city house prices fell, which shows the January real estate market prices have also fallen.

"China Chengdu Hardware and mechanical Index" sentiment index of the recent year trend chart

Statistical field of view pointed out that closely related to macroeconomic trends, especially by the manufacturing industry, building real estate, the impact of hardware and mechanical industry January Boom Index also fell significantly, "China. Chengdu Hardware Electromechanical Index" data show that The January boom index fell 47.16 points on 139.78, down 40.66% from a year earlier.

Overall trend of scale, environment and confidence index in the past year

Overall analysis: January hardware Mechanical and electrical market overall index decline is mainly affected by the decline in the scale index, it can be seen that the economic index of the three components of the "scale index" "Environmental Index" "Confidence index" index of the largest decline in scale, the other two although there is a slight decline, but very small, the overall trend is smooth.

The scale index is mainly the monthly sales statistics, January by macro-manufacturing and real estate industry demand to reduce the impact of various industries in hardware and electronics market sales have declined in varying degrees, the data show that 12 categories only "welding machine, welding and welding materials" and "Wire and cable", "lighting equipment" There was a slight rise in the three categories of scale indices, and the other 9 categories fell. Although sales of industry declined in January, but the market for the business environment and follow-up confidence is still stable, "environmental index" and "confidence index" are the trend is more stable, because the January operating market decline is mainly affected by the spring Festival and seasonal factors, although the macroeconomic growth rate slowed, But the hardware and electronics market is facing a business environment is still optimistic.

Second, the trend of the industry January 2015 Boom Index

October and November 12 major categories of industry sentiment index comparison chart

January 2015, from the two period of the economic index comparison can be seen, a number of large-scale economic index of the decline, the main decline is mainly "instrumentation", "security equipment and supplies", "Building Hardware", "electrical and electronic" several categories, the decline is more than 30 points, and only "lighting equipment", "Wire and Cable", "welder Welding and welding Materials "the three types of economic index have a small increase, the gains are lower than 30 points."

October and November 12 major categories of Industry scale index comparison chart

Comparing the index of the economic index and its components, it can be found that the decline of all kinds of economic index is affected by the decline of the index of scale, and the scale index reflects the sales of the month's market. Our analysis of Representative industries is as follows:

1. Why did the "instrument and meter" boom index fall so much?

The January index data shows that "instrument" the overall index of economic decline is the largest, but the three index of the prosperity Index of the environment and confidence index are basically no change, mainly reflects the current month sales of the scale index changes. "Instrument" under the three categories January Scale index all showed a downward trend, of which [optical instrument] category declined the most. According to the index collectors know, January "instrumentation" type of business sales are small, due to the spring festival and seasonal factors affecting the winter, the industry downstream demand for procurement in January very little, there are merchants said that optical instruments used in experiments and other aspects of the product for the entire month or even rarely sold. This has led to a big decline in the overall sales volume this month, and so has seen a big fall in its size index.

2, [Fire equipment] January sales decreased significantly "security equipment and supplies" boom index return to decline.

Winter due to dry weather and the spring Festival holiday factors, some aspects of fire demand increased, in December [fire equipment] sales of the chain has increased significantly. But in January with all aspects of winter and even before the Lunar New year before the completion of fire preparedness, the market demand for fire equipment has also dropped sharply, the classification scale index in the last month, the chain fell sharply. In addition, due to various types of construction projects suspended at the end of construction, labor insurance products in January sales are not high, regardless of [head protection], [limb protection] or [body protection] is a large decline in December, so "security equipment and supplies" January boom index on the basis of the rise in December to return to decline.

3 January Construction and other projects in many places "building hardware", "electrical and electronic" demand less.

Also by the real estate industry in January, most of the project suspended construction impact, "Building hardware" category January Boom index also showed a large decline in the three components of the economic index of the environment and confidence index are very small, and the scale index decline is larger, according to the index collectors from some businesses understand, January because in the renovation and other real estate market off-season with construction and other projects mostly shut down, "Building hardware" category product sales are very small, and some classified products even one months have not been out of stock. "Electrical and electronic" category this month is mainly high-voltage [high-voltage electrical appliances], [high-voltage switches], [high-voltage insulation materials] and [communication equipment] Several categories of decline caused by the boom index decline.

4, Commodities January procurement reduction "hardware materials", "Hardware parts" sales decline

In addition to the above four categories of decline in January, "Hardware Materials", "Hardware Components" and several other categories have also a small decline, January domestic commodity market by the Spring Festival Festival factors, prices continue to fall, hardware and mechanical and electrical market related industries are affected, in addition by the manufacturing activities weakened, data show January "Hardware Materials" , "Hardware Components" and other types of scale index have a more significant decline, which shows that its sales this month has also been a small decline.

5, [lighting appliances] Boom index in January, the rise in the "lighting equipment", "Wire and cable" and other rising representatives

Although most of the January boom indices fell, there were also three categories of small increases, with "lighting fixtures" rising relatively to the maximum, with the biggest support coming from [lighting] classification, and largely the change in the size index, the environment and the confidence index were not much changed. In addition, "wire and Cable", "Welding machine welding and welding material" Two types of economic index also have a small increase.

Iii. Recent projections

The relative weakness of the domestic macroeconomic situation in January, especially in the manufacturing industry, commodity market by the Spring Festival and seasonal factors affect the relatively low, which brings a certain impact on the overall environment of hardware and mechanical market, in addition to the Spring Festival all kinds of construction sites, real estate and other industries have already entered the closed period, related to all kinds of materials, Industries such as tools have slipped this month. February is the month of the Spring festival, in such a large Chinese traditional festival, the industry will be affected, from the January situation, all types of business data has been affected, the larger index of the size of the fall reflects the decline in sales this month. February is expected that the overall sales of hardware and mechanical market will continue to decline, but from the market environment and confidence, or there will be a small increase, because after the Spring festival in February, with the temperature of the industry recovery, the market will gradually enter the new Year's first procurement small season.

(Source: China index net)

January 2015 "China Chengdu Hardware Electromechanical Index" sentiment index analysis