June 2014 ADP employment and announcement time

2014The data of ADP in June is as follows:

Given that Friday (July) is an independent Day holiday in the United States, key U.S. non-agricultural employment data for July will be released until Thursday. The market is generally expected to announce a July 3 Increase in non-agricultural jobs in June on Thursday (0.212 million), below May in 0.217 million. The Employment Survey Report released by human resources service company ADP and prediction agency Moodys analytics in July 2 shows that the number of ADP employment increased by June in 0.281 million, the biggest increase in the year and a half, which is expected to increase by 0.2 million, the pre-value is increased by 0.179 million. The dollar index rebounded in the short-term, approaching the 80 integer mark.

It can be seen that the number of new ADP employment increased from June 2013 to June 2014.

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The green column represents the positive difference between the actual published values and the expected values of the newly added ADP job, and the red column represents the negative difference. The black line represents the actual number of new ADP employment trends, and the red line represents the expected value trend.

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2014Year7MonthADPData Prediction

If the monthly non-agricultural employment growth in the United States can continue to exceed 0.2 million, and the unemployment rate continues to stabilize and fall, the investment view on the economic outlook will continue to improve, this implies that the Fed will begin to enter the policy tightening cycle as soon as possible. It is not hard to guess that the probability of the U.S. ADP stable at more than July in 0.2 million is quite high.

ADPFull name

ADP, the full name of which is automatic data processing. ADP employment data is called "small non-agricultural" by the market and is an advance prediction of the U.S. non-agricultural employment population, it has a huge impact on gold, silver and foreign currency. Generally, the data is published on the evening of the previous day (Thursday. The ADP National Employment Report is sponsored by ADP, and macroeconomy micadvisers is responsible for formulating and maintaining the report. This report is collected from approximately 0.5 million anonymous U.S. enterprises, reflecting employment in the United States.

ADPThe role of data on the foreign exchange market

As a non-agricultural employment population, ADP data includes the employment population of the manufacturing and service industries. It also reflects the current economic development level of the country, because the manufacturing and service industries are the second and third industries respectively, the number of employed persons directly reflects the consumption level of the country. If the value is smaller, it indicates that the productivity of enterprises in the country is declining, the economy is entering a slump, the consumption level of the people is decreasing, and the market is in a highly sensitive period. When the value increases, it indicates that the social economy is good, the productivity of enterprises is high, the consumption capacity of the people is enhanced, and the market is highly active.

The impact of U.S. ADP data on the US dollar is transmitted to the gold market, and the magnitude of the two will certainly be different. Therefore, the results of U.S. non-agricultural data will first affect the trend of the US dollar, at the same time, it has a major impact on the foreign exchange market, mainly in the trend of gold prices. This means that it is very late to enter the market when non-agricultural data is published. At the same time, the direction and market entry of gold sales are determined based on the data quality, which is also time-consuming. It is best to enter the market before the data is published. After the data is published, it is often full of volatility and temptation. In addition, the sharp fluctuations in the Data announcement result in traders increasing transaction spreads, this makes it extremely difficult for traders to make transactions at high costs. This data can also greatly affect the dollar value of the currency market. A vibrant employment report can drive a rise in interest rates, making the dollar more attractive to foreign investors. They can earn interest income by holding U.S. Treasury bonds. On the other hand, a report on the worst-case job situation weakens the demand for the US currency because it creates troubles for the US stock market and puts downward pressure on interest rates.

For example, after the release of ADP data in 2nd day of this month, spot gold prices fell by about $5 in the short-term, at $1323.95/Ounce; spot silver prices fell to $20.97/Ounce in the short-term; the US debt price fell after the U.S. ADP employment saw a sharp increase above expectations. Nymex's crude oil futures price rose to $ August/barrel on November 104.74, and German debt futures fell to a intraday low of 146.82.