Reducing carrier subsidies is not just a disaster

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If one day, when the 0 yuan purchase is no longer on the poster of the "three giants", when the once-popular qianyuan smart phones are no longer diverse in style, when all the mobile phones in the mobile Hall are sold as bare metal, will you start to wonder if you are wrong about entering a mobile phone store that is charged for mobile phones. We don't have to worry about such a day, because it is coming soon.

In June 2014, according to relevant sources, in accordance with the unified requirements of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, during the year, the three major operators planned to cut subsidies for mobile terminals by more than 10 billion yuan, of which China Mobile accounted for nearly. In this storm of subsidies reduction, the biggest possible impact is the mobile phone manufacturers who have been relying on subsidies to expand their market share. Maybe qianyuan smart phones will become history.

Since the launch of ZTE's first popular qianyuan smartphone u880 in 2011, with the rapid development of the Android system, the Chinese mobile phone team headed by ZTE, Huawei, Lenovo, and kupai relies on its excellent technical accumulation and flexible market policies, it quickly became the leader in China's mobile phone industry after the outbreak of China's smart phones. According to relevant statistics, since the market share of domestic mobile phones surpassed that of foreign brands in first quarter of 2012, as of second quarter of 2014, according to the Top 7 mobile phone market shares announced by CCTV, Samsung (15.4%) and Xiaomi (13.5%) lenovo (10.8%), cool (10.7%), Huawei (8.3%), Apple (6.9%), and Oppo (4.4% ). Among them, domestic brands have even reached 70% share in the domestic market. However, in the glamorous data, there have been two pain points: "small profits and small profits" and "high share, low income rate". Chinese mobile phones are sore and happy.

Behind the prosperous mobile phone market, qianyuan smart phones have always been the main force to increase the share of their mobile phone brands, according to the data exposed by the relevant data analysis departments, we know that the percentage of smartphones occupied by qianyuan has exceeded 40%, and the proportion of qianyuan smart phones on the 3G mobile phone layer is even more than 60%. However, there has been no debate on the topic of qianyuan smart phones "making money, earning money, and drinking money". What is the support for so many mobile phone manufacturers to go to this qianyuan smart phone market?

Next, let's take a look at a group of data on China Mobile's 2013 results. The financial results show that China Mobile achieved revenue of 2013 billion yuan in 630.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, but net profit of 121.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%. In 2013, China Mobile received a 26.3 billion yuan mobile phone subsidy. Revenue growth but profits declined, and subsidies accounted for 21.61% of China Mobile's annual profit. The money is a real gold and silver subsidy to the profits of mobile phone manufacturers. It is also through this set of data that we can clearly understand why we need to sell thousands of yuan of mobile phones without making money. Because mobile phones do not make money, the communications chamber provides subsidies, and subsidies are actually pure profits.

In the current situation, after seeing that the 3G market could not be digested, the communication vendors quickly put the target on the 4G market. Under the pressure of tax rates, and requiring operators to cut marketing fees, telecom operators will certainly tend to pay a small proportion of the remaining subsidies to 4G mobile phones, for other mobile phones, the "bare metal" sales model will be enabled, and the terminal outlets of communication operators are bound to increase the pressure.

An industry storm caused by subsidies has blown up. For domestic mobile phone manufacturers affected by subsidies, the subsidy storm is both an opportunity and a challenge, because shuffling may happen at any time. Next we will analyze the impact of subsidies on the Chinese mobile phone market:

1. Chinese manufacturers are familiar with the Chinese market with inherent advantages that giants like Samsung and Apple cannot match. They know what Chinese people like and what they need, design and R & D changes can be made anytime, anywhere;

2. Mature distribution channels are an invaluable asset. When subsidies start to decrease, we have to rely on bare metal sales to ensure profits, distribution of sales channels in various cities has become the most valuable asset, because when subsidies are no longer available and everyone is bare metal, the advantages of terminal channels are full;

3. Reducing subsidies can be a devastating blow to small enterprises. After the decrease in subsidies, the shuffling effect on small businesses will become more obvious. The rapid disappearance of small businesses, the emergence of a large amount of market space is also a blessing;

4. When no one knows about the Kiki cell phone a few years ago and fought against Nokia and Samsung in the Indian market, Chinese mobile phone companies gained unlimited self-confidence. Therefore, the reduction of subsidies is not negligible for the promotion of overseas markets;

5. When the subsidy is reduced, the cost of buying bare metal at a high price will be much reduced. Samsung and Apple, which have occupied the high-end mobile phone market for a long time, will also have cracks in the market. Mid-end mobile phones with high-price brands or higher cost performance will become easier to choose and facilitate the development of the mobile phone market;

6. The development of 4G is doomed to continue to exist in the 4G market with the development of a thousand yuan machine that will follow the development of subsidies, and will inevitably influence the speed of machine replacement. Opportunities will always coexist with disasters;

From the above points, the reduction of subsidies is not necessarily a disaster for domestic mobile phones, but how to find a tree hole before the arrival of the cold is the key, the solution is always more difficult. Since it is inevitable, you should face it. We will wait and see how the Chinese mobile phone market will develop in the future. (New technology discovery: Kang standing/Wen)

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Reducing carrier subsidies is not just a disaster