[Reprinted] iPhone development-a saturated ecosystem?

Original article address:IPhone development-saturated ecosystem? Author:Kungfupanda

The app store of Apple's App Store can be said to be a lot of iPhone
Where developers dream. Before entering the topic, please read a few pieces of data to see how big this dream is:

1. The iPhone entered the U.S. market in June 2007 and swept the world. To 2009
Apple has sold more than 17 million iPhones around the world until the first fiscal quarter.

2. November 7, 2008
At the beginning of the month, iPhone and iPod Touch users can use the App Store
Download ApplicationProgram(For the sake of simplicity, I will not mention iPod Touch later.
Sales, also specifically for the sales of these two products ). By March 2009, more than 25000 third-party applications had been deployed in the app store. 2009
In January, Apple announced that application downloads had exceeded 0.5 billion.

3. Apple announced the iPhone SDK, a software development kit, which contains most of the commonly used programming interfaces starting in March 2008. The iPhone SDK
It can be downloaded for free. All sales revenue is three to seven, Apple is three, and developers are seven. Developers are required to pay Apple an annual fee of at least $99 to participate in the iPhone
Development.

4. According to Piper Jaffray, app store can bring about 10
Billion US dollars in revenue. (I doubt this data and will explain it later .)

5. Many programmers have become millionaires in just a few months through a program priced at $1 to $2. This story also inspires more programmers and software companies to join
IPhone development.

Simply put, thanks to the huge sales volume of the iPhone, the good consumption power of iPhone buyers, and Apple's original App Store
The sales share method has formed a huge profit market around iPhone development. Compared with development on other platforms
The development threshold is very low and very low. Coupled with the encouragement of many developers' stories of instant wealth, a large number of developers-including individuals and companies-have or are surging into this market, more developers are eager to try or wait and wait, hoping to get more information to decide whether to join the competition. There are a lot of exciting stories about the American dream and a lot of unknown heartbeats. This is a Darwin ecosystem, and I am here. Although you can only write data in your spare time
IPhone applications, but I am very happy with my heart. In North America, I have a certain understanding of the U.S. market and consumer psychology. This is to use apple4us
This platform, through a seriesArticleFrom the developer's perspective, the real appearance of this ecosystem is presented to everyone. This series includes:

• IPhone Development Market Analysis-analyze the iPhone with accurate data
  How big is the development market and how many developers can accommodate it?
• IPhone development float-telling the story behind the amazing iPhone world
• IPhone Development Guide-mainly introduces development tools, development languages, and excellent forums and blogs at Home and Abroad
• IPhone development and marketing-introduce some marketing channels and methods for iPhone apps to help developers get more profits
• IPhone development talks-we can see what we think and start from the last 30 days? China
  IPhone, meizu, more?

Next, let's take a look at the first article in this series: iPhone development market analysis.

 

Since app store is a dream for iPhone developers, the size of the App Store market determines the size of the iPhone
The limit of developers' dreams. There are different opinions in the world: Some blogs say that the annual cost is several billion US dollars, and some investment banks say that the annual cost is several billion US dollars. But I do not fully agree with it. What we need to do in this article is to start with the existing data to estimate a reliable data, and then provide a competitive situation in this market.


In March 2009, Apple announced that app store applications had been downloaded more than 0.8 billion times. At that time, about 8 times since app store went online.
Months. Major factors affecting sales volume include: iPhone not cracked
The total amount of users, the economic situation (indirectly affecting the money in people's pockets), and the competition. We believe that the total amount of users will continue to increase. First, because the main existing market is not saturated (although the US economy has fallen to the bottom, many American children are still new in the past few months.
IPhone), followed by the huge growth space in emerging markets (for example, the iPhone is about to officially log on to the Chinese mainland, rather than in the form of cracking), and finally the iPhone
The new version will be released (some old users with meters will purchase the new version of the iPhone ). In terms of the economic situation, there are no signs of recovery in the short term (one year), but the economic situation is
The sales impact should be 2008
The end of the year has started to take effect. In terms of market competition, although a large number of manufacturers are following up on touch screen smartphones, such as meizu in China, the iPhone still has absolute technical and market advantages in the short term. Therefore, we believe that the iPhone
The growth of user groups will be decisive and short-term (1
Due to the advantages of the international market space and technology market, the growth rate is still relatively fast. Long-term growth will be weak, which is affected by market competition and market saturation. So remember this trend, we will
A simple analysis of data from July 2008 to March 2009 can draw credible and helpful conclusions for the future.


0.8 billion downloads in 8 months mean 0.1 billion downloads in a month. According to a report from pinch media,
The download volume of free and paid applications is about 7.5: 1, so the monthly download volume of paid applications is about 1200
Ten thousand times. But the price for each payment procedure is different. We need to estimate the average price for each procedure.
Grid. In May 0.99, I recorded the prices of the top 25 paid applications: 10 out of $1.99, 4 out of 2.99 and 4 out of 4.99.
And 5.99 each account for three, one of which is 9.99. We use their weighted average as an estimate of the average price of the App Store, that is, 2.9
USD. Developers account for 70% of their revenue, so the total market amount on the App Store is:

December/year * 12 million times/month * $2.9*0.7 = $0.29 billion/year.

(Of course, we ignore many factors, such as exchange rates and statistical methods, but this data should have good credibility .)

To put it simply, developers can get about $0.3 billion in pre-tax revenue in one year!

In the same period of time, a total of 25 thousand applications appeared on the App Store, so the average revenue of each application can reach 1.2 for developers.
Tens of thousands of dollars. The cost of iPhone development is: One Mac + $99 an annual fee + one iPhone for testing the program.
The annual cost can be as low as 750 USD. Thanks to the iPhone SDK (software development kit), the development of a simple and practical iPhone
The application time can be just a few hours, and the app store
Makes marketing very convenient! It should be noted that the sales volume of different applications varies greatly. A poorly sold application may cost dozens of dollars. Spending some time playing a game may bring about thousands of dollars in revenue. Of course, don't forget.
The miracle of ishoot millions of dollars.

Optimistic. Current App Store
No more than one hundred applications are released every day. Even in a small category, such as photography, there are more than 10 releases every day. An application that cannot appear before the ranking of this subclass
50. If a company employee does not take a fancy to the recommendation or do not have a good media for publicity, the only chance it will appear in the user's eyes is that the user searches by release time-however, you can only view the recently released
For 25 applications, you will forget most applications in a day or two. Therefore, most applications cannot make any money. App Store
There is a pyramid in it, and the amount of money on the tip of the tower can be reached. The vast majority of applications under the tower can only be a sigh of the developer.


For iPhone development, there are large companies such as Ea
Sports; there are small and medium-sized companies with dozens of people; there are independent developers, single fights, or several division of labor. For large companies, iPhone
Development is actually a little tricky. Because large companies have high application costs, from the artist Code It takes a lot of money to go to the project manager and then to the publicity.
With the proliferation of applications on the Internet, the work of large companies cannot be listed on the list. If you are on the list, you have to consider how many dollars an application can sell, compared to selling PCs.
A game with dozens of knives is still quite a lot worse. If you don't have enough time on the list, the company's investment will be hard to get a good return. For small and medium-sized companies, the story is different: they have low operating costs and often have multiple roles. They can pirated classic game ideas without any cost; in the current market, the overall profit margin should be good, of course, luck is also very important. For independent developers, the story is a new version: many of them are part-time developers, and it is good to make money when the program is sold. If they do not make money, they will not lose anything, do it in a few days, and do it in a year.
N, it is very likely to encounter which can make a little money to improve your life. In general, the app
The store market is not saturated. In addition, the market mentioned above is still growing and the entry threshold is very low, so there will still be more developers. Yu xuexiao believes that it is still a good time for independent developers and small companies to enter the market, especially
IPhone
It is possible that Chinese customers will be listed within the year, and Chinese developers will have a good grasp of the Chinese consumer mentality and can intervene. However, the more time it will be, the worse it will be. Remember that the market for multi-touch smartphones will gradually become saturated.
The current absolute advantage will be gradually weakened under the competition, and the entire market will eventually return to a multi-headed competition pattern.

there are also a large number of programmers in China who are developing iPhones and getting them to the App Store
. There are also some cool people, in just a few months, I have earned less than $100,000. I hope to introduce their stories through the articles later in this series, and introduce the introduction to iPhone
development and some app store marketing skills. I hope more people will find their dreams here.