Research on Population Spatial Distribution Change Mechanism and simulation in China

I have previously written a research plan on the mechanism of Population Spatial Distribution in China and its simulation. The question is very big, and I don't think deeply. It is a rough idea.

 

China is experiencing the largest population movement and migration in human history. According to the latest data from the sixth census, China's current urbanization rate is approaching 50%, in the future, China will enter a period of rapid urbanization, and the spatial distribution and change trend of population will become a key variable for the future development of China. Study the spatial distribution and evolution trend of China's population, simulate future demographic distribution scenarios, and pay attention to population movement and migration issues, guided Orderly population flow and rational distribution as a major strategy for coordinated urban-rural and regional development, to achieve effective allocation of resources in urban and rural areas and between regions is an important part of China's population research.

 

Population has always been the core issue of resources, ecology, environment and sustainable development. Population distribution has important significance and value for local natural, economic and regional sustainable development. Population distribution refers to the distribution, distribution, and combination of population in geographical spaces within a certain period of time. Population distribution reflects the differences in geographical conditions and the level of economic development in a region. The core significance of population distribution is to reveal the regional characteristics of population distribution, further reveal the regularity of population spatial distribution. To accurately grasp the relationship between population and natural economy and regional sustainable development, and effectively formulate resource and environmental planning, it is necessary to conduct in-depth and extensive research on the spatial distribution of population in China.

 

From the perspective of China's economic and social development, the spatial layout of population and various elements has always been a key issue in China's policy formulation and planning development. The spatial distribution of population is the spatial manifestation of the population development process. It is subject to and counterproductive to the regional economic and social development level. Therefore, studying population distribution changes, interpretation mechanisms, and impact effects is conducive to formulating reasonable population policies and guiding the spatial layout of population and various elements. Scientific demographic distribution can effectively control the population quantity, improve the population quality, improve the population structure, and ensure sound operation and coordinated development of the population economic system and population ecosystem, it has important significance. At the same time, changes in population space distribution have an important impact on regional development planning, industrial layout, transportation, and other aspects. Therefore, it is an important proposition for China's social and economic development to accurately portray and interpret changes in population Space Distribution and simulate predictions so as to reasonably and effectively formulate policies to regulate the spatial structure of population areas.

Based on the data of China population statistical yearbook and census data, this study uses GIS analysis and spatial simulation methods to start with the database of Chinese resident population and resident population at different scales, based on the framework of the main functional area and the population development functional area, this paper systematically studies the distribution pattern and Evolution Mechanism of population density in multiple scales in China, and explains the dynamic mechanism and policy effect of Population Spatial Pattern building in China, this paper studies and simulates the Population Spatial Distribution Change prediction model in different situations to describe the population distribution in China in four years: 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050, it also analyzes the impact of population distribution on resource environment, economic society, and urban development in different scenarios, it provides an important theoretical and empirical basis for formulating economic development policies and resource environment development layout policies from the perspective of Spatial Pattern Change Mechanism and simulation.

This study has important theoretical significance and application value for understanding and understanding the characteristics, evolution trends, and Change Mechanisms of China's population and space structure.

First, the study of this topic is of important theoretical significance for the development and improvement of Population Geography theories, including population space distribution models. The research on population space structure has always been a field of interest in academic circles at home and abroad. However, for a long time, the studies on population space structure focus more on the regional differences in spatial distribution, but less on the spatial evolution of population space distribution, especially in domestic studies, different models are rarely used to simulate population distribution. This study uses census data to provide theoretical compensation for the Change Mechanism of population spatial distribution.

Second, the research of this topic is of great significance to the Methods innovation of Population space change and Simulation Research. This topic will first adopt a multi-layer simulation method to establish a population growth prediction model based on homogeneous areas and a population spatial distribution decision model based on functional areas (multi-variable logic model) three types of Population Spatial Distribution Change prediction models based on different situations. These models are used to simulate the population spatial distribution in China in 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050, in this way, we can make innovations in research and Simulation of population spatial distribution, and provide some reference for future studies on population spatial distribution.

Third, this study has important policy reference value for China's socio-economic management and regional coordinated development during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. This topic simulates and predicts the spatial distribution of population in China in 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050 in the future, it will provide policy basis for the formulation of China's population policy, regional economic development policy, spatial layout of industrial development, and industrial upgrading and transformation, in this way, China's economic development will continue to achieve regional balance and better and faster development.

Fourth, this study will provide important theoretical basis and practical guidance for the coordinated development of China's resources, environment and economy. The population development and spatial layout structure are closely related to the development of resource and environment. The outline of the 12th Five-Year Plan for China's National Economic and Social Development (full text) proposes that, we must "adhere to the construction of a resource-saving and environment-friendly society as an important focus for accelerating the transformation of economic development methods. In-depth implementation of the basic national policies for resource conservation and environmental protection, saving energy, reducing the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions, developing circular economy, promoting low-carbon technologies, and actively responding to global climate changes, it promotes coordination between economic and social development and population, resources and environment, and takes the path of sustainable development ". This topic will provide a theoretical basis for the construction of the Two-type society and lay a favorable foundation for the formulation of resource and environmental policies.

 

This part of literature review mainly starts from four aspects, including: "Population Model Research: Population distribution, evolution and prediction core issues" and "Population Distribution empirical research: how can we portray the demographic and spatial pattern?" "Research on the interaction between population distribution and related factors: setting up a theoretical bridge between population distribution and Policy Analysis" and "Study on the rationality of population distribution and change: How to scientifically guide population distribution? ". I will not list them here.

 

Based on the data of China population statistical yearbook and census data, this study uses GIS analysis and spatial simulation methods to start with the database of Chinese resident population and resident population at different scales, based on the framework of the main functional area and population development functional area, this paper systematically studies the distribution pattern and Evolution Mechanism of population density in China at multiple scales, this paper studies and simulates the Population Spatial Distribution Change prediction model in different situations to describe the population distribution in China in four years: 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050, it also analyzes the impact of population distribution on the resource environment, economy, society, and urban development in different scenarios, and puts forward policy recommendations. The main content includes: establish a Population Spatial Database in China at the county, municipal, provincial, and main functional areas, population development functional areas, and national strategic economic zones, explore the characteristics of population distribution patterns in China, and based on population data at different time periods, explore the Evolutionary Trend of China's population spatial distribution, build three population simulation models, predict and depict China's population distribution in 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050

Analyze the effects of different population distribution patterns on the environment, resources, economy, society, and urban development, and propose policy recommendations. The specific research content here is not listed.

 

Currently, most of the population research on spatial layout and spatial structure systems are the ranking pyramid of the population level system and various indexes that characterize the spatial structure, there are not many studies on the population layout that really involves more complex spatial structures, and the scale is very macro or only concentrated at the micro level within a certain administrative area. There is a lack of description and analysis on different scales, the analysis involving population migration is also a large-scale study, and there is not much research on population space structure changes. This is mainly due to the availability of population data. If there is accurate and complete data, it depicts the true map of China's population distribution and the characteristics of migration, which will provide the demographic field with the latest feature facts.