Research on regional cargo transportation Forecast

 

Last year, we considered using the gravity model and input-output method to analyze the transportation volume of goods in different industries across regions, so as to provide reference for regional transportation system planning and urban external transportation planning, it can also be used to analyze industrial development and linkages between cities and regions. Xiuli encountered many problems at the beginning, but it also solved them one by one. In particular, Mr. Pan gave us some foreign materials, this includes the most required parameter for the conversion of cargo traffic, which solves the problems we encounter in actual calculation. Compared with other traffic flow analysis methods, our advantage is that we can get goods flows from different industries, which cannot be replaced by other relevant analysis research institutes, and even have no actual measurement data, because it is impossible to set checkpoints on the highway to accurately record the type, weight, and industry of the incoming and outgoing vehicles, the data we get is of great significance for Regional Traffic Research.

 

When data is limited, we use second-hand data (namely, socio-economic statistics) that is easy to obtain to estimate the circulation of goods in a region in detail. It integrates a regional input-output model with a spatial interaction model and develops a multi-Economic Department spatial input-output model framework. In this framework, cargo transportation between different economic sectors generated from the input-output model is first divided into two types: intra-region and intra-region. Then, cargo transportation in a region is divided into sub-regions in space, such as the flow of goods in a traffic analysis area (tazs), and the flow of goods between regions is obtained from the data of the import and export goods in the region. Finally, a gravity model with a single constraint is used to calculate the detailed logistics matrix. This method of obtaining inter-regional road cargo traffic is simple and practical, and does not require expensive cargo start-end (O-D) surveys, which can provide more scientific decision-making support for traffic planning and urban planning departments.

 

Because of the data, the actual calculation process can be simplified more. The total cargo demand and supply are calculated through the input and output data, and employment data is also required, then, goods are allocated to the region based on the gravity model. The most important thing is to calculate the friction coefficient based on the existing transportation traffic between regions (the cross-region Railway Transportation volume in the traffic Yearbook, in this way, goods are allocated, and then converted according to the proportion of yuan/ton to obtain the final transportation volume of the sub-industry.

 

This step is more about analyzing the current situation of goods flow data in different industries. Our current research only takes this step. If it is a prediction, my idea is to correct the input and output tables in the future based on the current situation of economic development and the growth rate (in fact, it should be called prediction ), then, the goods are distributed by the gravity model (the calculation of the friction coefficient is based on the previous experience value or the adjustment based on the development speed of the region), and the goods volume in the sub-industry is calculated, that is to say, get the predicted value of the future. Of course, this idea may be a little less rigorous. In particular, there are logical vulnerabilities in predictions and assumptions about many values. Further research is required.

 

Of course, our ultimate goal is to streamline this process and develop a set of regional cargo flow analysis and prediction software. However, due to the time and the talent shortage caused by graduation of lab students, the research in this direction has stagnated a lot. I am also trying to apply for a fund project using this research direction, I have written more than a dozen project application materials over the past six months. Two of them are in this direction, but I am ashamed that one of them has been shot and the other seems to be a bit of a play, it is a project of the Science and Technology Innovation Fund. According to the report, our project review results are not bad, but it is still unknown whether the Fund can be successfully obtained. This reminds me of the project applied for by the Finance Bureau, which is more supportive than this project. If it can pass, it will provide a lot of guarantees for our future development. But now, we have to wait quietly...