RMB active devaluation: Do you take the initiative to adjust the way you manage your finances?

[ abstract ] Now, the sudden sharp depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, what will the specific impact of our asset allocation? What other investment opportunities are worth keeping track of and paying close attention to?

The central bank issued a statement on improving the price of the renminbi against the dollar, since August 11, 2015, market makers in the daily Inter-bank foreign exchange market before opening, refer to the foreign exchange market close exchange rate of the previous day , comprehensive consideration of the supply and demand situation and international major currency exchange rate changes to China's foreign exchange Center to provide a price quote.

After the new offer was released, the renminbi was quoted at an intermediate price of 6.2298 yuan against the dollar yesterday, with a depreciation of nearly 2% per cent from the previous day.

At present, under the background of the rising of the dollar index, the pressure of devaluation of RMB has already been concerned by all parties. Now, the sudden sharp depreciation of the RMB exchange rate , what will the specific impact of our asset allocation? What other investment opportunities are worth keeping track of and paying close attention to?

For the above questions, "Daily economic news ( Weibo) " reporters in the industry in-depth interviews for you after the detailed interpretation.

Market winds: Risk aversion rising gold Trading Hot

RMB mid-price depreciation of more than 1000 points a day, the foreign exchange Financing market will start agitation?

"Daily economic news" reporters, including the four major Chinese and agricultural construction and CITIC, people's livelihood and other banking sites found that, in addition to the Bank of China has a foreign exchange financial products, other banks have not recently related foreign exchange financial products launched.

CITIC Bank Financial department a manager surnamed Wang told reporters, "Although the renminbi has a certain amount of depreciation, but the fluctuation of the foreign exchange market is relatively large, the future trend is not clear, so the line has not been boosted foreign exchange-related financial products." The general income of foreign exchange financial products is lower, for example, the annual yield of US dollar money financial products is only about 1.5%, even if the short-term exchange rate fluctuates, plus the cost of foreign currency exchange, it is far less than the income from investing in RMB financial products. ”

Since the start of the exchange rate reform in 2005, the renminbi has entered a long-term upward trend. In this case, people are also accustomed to holding renminbi, in renminbi for investment and financial management . The recent devaluation of the renminbi has also allowed investors to pay more attention to the dynamics of the foreign exchange finance market.

A Beijing third-party wealth management manager told the Daily Economic news reporter that since the beginning of this year, focusing on the potential depreciation risk of the renminbi, the company has begun to recommend the allocation of dollar assets to customers. For example, private equity products that are financially involved in emerging enterprise equity, fixed dividend products for bonds, and overseas property investments.

According to the reporter understands, the overseas investment product, the dollar investment class product threshold is higher, generally above 150,000 US dollars, and the investment term is longer. With the exception of exchange rate fluctuations, the expected yield of these products is generally lower than that of domestic financial products.

The financial manager of the third-party wealth management company told reporters that the investment cycle of foreign exchange investment products is relatively long. For example, equity products are typically invested for 3-4 years, plus a withdrawal period of up to 4-5 years. Although in the investment period does not exclude the project exit, the possibility of capital return, but generally advised customers to use spare money to do this configuration. Under the premise of selecting investment advisers and fields, liquidity is the biggest risk of foreign exchange investment products.

The above-mentioned Citic Bank Wang manager told reporters that, from the historical investment situation, customers want to invest in foreign exchange financial products to gain foreign exchange appreciation of excess income is more difficult. This will not only require more money, but also face the volatility of the foreign exchange market, there is uncertainty about the currency conversion after the investment expires. "In general, we will only advise families studying abroad to exchange some overseas currencies at low exchange rates, and to advise clients to allocate foreign currency, more hedging risk, and less uncertainty about the overall financial assets caused by foreign exchange fluctuations." ”

In the face of the risk of devaluation of the renminbi, the money-making effect of investment in foreign exchange financial products is far less profitable than investing gold directly.

A number of bank financial managers to reporters, the recent physical gold trading hot.

The Bank of China, a wealth manager told reporters that in the past two weeks, the volume of physical gold in the line has risen, the customers who came to ask a lot more than the upfront. "On the one hand, this is because the recent fall in gold prices to a relatively low price range, there are relatively obvious investment opportunities, on the other hand, the pressure on the devaluation of the renminbi, but also let high net worth people began to consider buying gold to avoid the risk of cash depreciation. ”

Recently, the domestic yellow gold price has slightly rebounded, the overall trend of the bid price maintained at 215 yuan ~220 yuan/gram interval fluctuation, but compared with August 2011 446 yuan/Gram's high point, the gold price already halved.

The Bank of China Wealth Manager also told reporters that the current proposal for high net worth customers to do long-term allocation of gold plans; In general, the allocation of funds accounted for about 20% of the investment capital.

Money selection: Generally lower income " insurance " or the election of dollars

It is widely expected that in the next 12 months the renminbi will be devalued in 3%~5%. So, in the case of the devaluation of the renminbi and the increase of two-way fluctuation, what are the major markets in the world and the corresponding currencies, such as the US dollar, euro and Yen , which are worthy of investors?

In this regard, Noah wealth researcher Ziwen that "the euro and the yen will continue to depreciate relative to the dollar by the end of the year, while the Australian dollar may also fall sharply, with caution in its configuration, and capital flight in emerging economies will be the biggest crisis it faces." Overall, the second half of the dollar is still a more insurance currency option. ”

UBP, chief investment officer, Asia Asset Management, Andrewtang, said, "from the second half of the investment direction, the first is the global economic growth rate or will slow down, if there is 3%~5% growth is good." Europe is very good, after the low tide, basically performance is relatively positive. "The second is Japan, whose macroeconomic policies have received some good results." So for us, the future direction of Japan is still relatively right. The fear is that the yen will continue to depreciate, bringing some pressure on other countries. "Andrewtang continued.

In addition, according to the silver Rate Network database statistics, last week, foreign currency financing products issued a total of 14. In major foreign currency banking products, the average expected yield on the Australian dollar was 3.57%, up 0.1% from the previous week, while the average expected yield on the Hong Kong dollar was 1.8%, up 0.38% from the previous week, while the average expected yield on the dollar was 2.05%, up 0.26% from a week earlier.

It can be seen that even in dollar products, the yield is not more attractive than the renminbi financial products. Ziwen further told reporters that "simply holding the dollar currency is a good choice, but should not only be seen from the rate of return, but more from the perspective of the allocation of large-class assets, in addition to the dollar currency, dollar property and the U.S. market are worth considering." ”

But Andrewtang has another insight, he argues, "the U.S. economy is now stable, but its CPI is not very stable, so the U.S. economic growth is still relatively weak." I don't think the United States will raise interest rates this year. ”

In terms of specific investment proposals, Andrewtang said, "If the real estate sector is not taken into account, I will use 40% of the money to invest in stocks, but to buy growth (good stocks), so I will not buy American equities, and will tend to increase European and Japanese equities; 40% In the bond market, half of which is in high-yield debt. "and 10% do some profitable equity investments." This kind of stock can provide you with a stable profit when the market is stable, will help you stabilize the portfolio, and will not be affected when the market falls, in addition, I will use 10% margin to hedge, but when the market changes, you have to reduce the proportion. "Andrewtang further said.

Investment Tips >>>

Some risks should be noted in foreign exchange financing

1, product credit risk, accumulated income hidden in the fishy

These risks are prevalent in the bank's foreign exchange banking products, but quite a few ordinary investors are not fully aware of it. Some of the financial product promotion will be 3 or even 5 years of income superimposed, often can reach a staggering height of 15% or even 20%, but in fact, product managers may terminate the contract early, do high annual yield. In other words, the investor actually gets the income is not high.

2, linked to the target, to prevent the currency from being transformed

Foreign exchange financial products are linked to the interest rate index, but also linked to the exchange rate index, there are gold linked to determine whether the product is a structured product, there is no leverage (especially important). If there is leverage, it is often very serious when a loss occurs; In addition, investors who prefer leveraged products should also pay attention to reducing their positions and figuring out the importance of the foreign exchange product investment target. Some financial products designed to return the currency is not the original investment money, at this time investors have to clear the trend of various currencies, otherwise it will face a strong foreign currency investment after the expiry of the risk of becoming other currencies, so that the investment gains shrank.

3, early redemption, should carefully calculate the proceeds

Although many of the bank's wealth management products allow investors to have early termination of the redemption rights. But this kind of end-of-redemption is also risky. For example, a bank in its FX products contract stipulates that a customer must deduct a percentage of the principal if the product is to be redeemed before it expires. If the deduction is 3% of the principal, and the expected return is 3%, it means that investors will have no return on early redemption.

Investment strategy

Pay attention to 4 types of financial products

The most concerned about the devaluation of the renminbi, may be the first is currently holding foreign exchange or foreign exchange financial products investors.

A foreign exchange broker Asia-Pacific sales director told the "Daily Economic news" reporter, the so-called renminbi depreciation of nearly 2%, only according to the adjustment of the price, the corresponding median price change, but this and wealth management product income is not directly related; Although the corresponding foreign currency assets appreciation, but also depends on the specific product investment range, It is not how much the renminbi has depreciated, but how much the earnings of the corresponding FX and wealth management products will increase.

For investment in foreign exchange or foreign exchange financial products, a foreign bank account manager disclosed that the general will be advised to hold foreign exchange clients choose to invest in qdii funds or other foreign exchange financial products, because qdii funds or financial products are generally settled through foreign currency; From an investment perspective, This is more profitable than simply holding a foreign exchange. Of course, in this case, in addition to the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, investors should also consider the risk of corresponding overseas markets.

So how do you configure your assets effectively? "Daily Economic News" financial department reporters in the in-depth investigation and interviews, the industry has advised to focus on four types of investment products.

Type one: Bank foreign currency protected banking products

A banker who declined to be named said to reporters: "At present, the average income of capital preservation-type foreign currency financial products is generally below 2%, and the products issued by different banks vary greatly, even if the same currency product of the same period of the same duration may have a greater yield difference." ”

In addition, the People's watch shows that the capital-protected products can be concerned about the Bank of China launched from August 8, 2015 to August 18, the "BOC Plus-a plan" in 2015, the 60th period of $366-day products. The investment currency of the product is USD, with a duration of 366 days and a starting amount of $17000. The financial plan mainly invests in domestic dollar fixed income and money market products, or through the brokerage asset Management Special Account investment in the interbank and exchange market listed fixed income financial instruments.

Type II: Real Estate Trust Investment fund

REITs (Real Estate Trust Investment Fund) as a part of the property owner, its income mainly from the appreciation of property and rent distribution income, with relative stability. REITs funds are attractive to robust investors in the expectation of a weaker renminbi and a strong recovery in dollar assets.

Over the past 5 years, the average annual dividend rate for US REITs has reached 3.78%. Since 2010, the global REITs annual return rate of 18.23%, while the United States regional real Estate Trust full-price index of the annual return rate of 21.43%. Importantly, REITs should assign at least 90% of taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends, thus offering a relatively generous dividend yield.

Currently, investment in foreign real estate qdii mainly includes Connaught Security ball income Real Estate, Castrol Global real estate, Peng Wah U.S. real estate, GF Real Estate Index. The above-mentioned real estate qdii can be purchased on the website of the relevant fund company. Investors with strong anti-risk ability can select Peng Hua us real estate, GF USA Real Estate index; investors who prefer stable income can prefer GF US Real estate index, Shinpeng China real estate.

Type III: Exchange Gold ETF

Gold combines commodity and investment attributes with asset preservation, inflation resistance, and low correlation with the securities market.

At present, the Exchange-listed Huaan Gold ETF tracking the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot contracts and other varieties, and strive to obtain the gold spot market in China yield, for investors to provide a class of transparent management, low cost, effective tracking of domestic gold spot price investment tools.

Type IV: US dollar oil and gas assets

Warburg oil and Huaan oil are passive LOF funds, which are tracked by the P/s oil and gas upstream stock index (XOM) and the global Oil Index, which is an index of investment in oil and gas exploration tools and services, which are invested in oil companies worldwide.

In particular, it is important to note that the underlying indices of both tracks are equity equity assets, which are affected by The performance of the stock market and can be traded in the securities account, where the investor should control the position in the allocation of the dollar assets.

RMB active devaluation: Do you take the initiative to adjust the way you manage your finances?