The "Central four" strong heart agents injected into the property market full city hope "golden month"
China Times reporter Chen Xiaoyu Changsha and Shenzhen
The long-standing mortgage policy news in the market have finally been unveiled. In, the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission released the "four central items", which not only reiterated that the minimum interest rate discount for the first suite was off, but also proposed in the determination of the Second Suite, for families that have 1 housing set and have settled the corresponding housing loan, the banking financial institution implements the first housing loan policy to apply for a loan to purchase ordinary housing for improved living conditions.
This also means that the two-Suite loan restriction policy is fully withdrawn, and the loan permissions of the Two-suite and above are issued to major banks. The relief is beyond the market's expectation that the two-Suite loan is not recognized ".
Industry insiders generally believe that the New Deal has injected a strong dose into the property market, which will help increase market confidence and the transaction volume is expected to stabilize and recover. Property companies are also taking the opportunity to speculate on price increases, trying to reverse market expectations.
During the National Day, the reporter of China Times found that the number of visits and transaction volume of new customers increased significantly compared with that of the first half of September, but the price was higher than that of the first half of the year, it has generally declined from 10% to 20%.
In addition, a problem that cannot be ignored is that the inventory is still high. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of August, the sales volume of commercial housing in China was 561.6 million square meters, an increase of July square meters from the end of 9.3 million.
According to a marketing director of a housing company in Changsha, there are only a handful of real estate companies that can achieve their sales targets this year. The performance in the first three quarters was not satisfactory. The pressure on the four quarters was huge, and they did not dare to really increase the price, price reduction is still the main marketing strategy in the fourth quarter.
Stimulate policy implementation
"A few days before the publication of the 'central bar ', we knew that the central Government was about to relax its loan limit, but the above requirements were strictly kept confidential ." People from a land department in a city in South China told the China Times reporter that the effect of previously relaxed purchase restrictions on stimulating the real estate market was very small, and announced before the National Day, it also intends to stimulate the housing turnover during the Golden Week.
In fact, one week before the Central Bank introduced a policy, this newspaper reported that the relaxation of loan restrictions has already taken the lead in local implementation. In the case of limited effect on purchase restrictions, it is imperative to "recognize houses and not recognize loans.
Only the stimulus method exceeds expectation. The "Central four items" also proposes that, in cities that have canceled or not implemented the "purchase restriction" measures, families that have two or more houses and have settled the corresponding housing loan, in addition, when applying for loans to purchase housing, banking financial institutions should carefully grasp the borrower's solvency, credit status and other factors and determine the proportion of the first payment and loan interest rate.
On September 16, October 8, an internal person from Changsha Pudong Development Bank told reporters that the Bank has decided to implement "House recognition and non-loan recognition". As long as the bank loan is paid off, no matter how many loan records have been made before, the re-loan is the first set. China Construction Bank also said on the same day that it was able to accept loan applications according to the New Deal, but its first mortgage interest rate remained the benchmark interest rate, and the second-Suite loan interest rate rose by 10%.
"The notifications issued by the Central Committee on the last day before the festival have just arrived at work today. The notifications were issued less quickly ." On the morning of June 23, a personal loan manager of Bank of China in Changsha told reporters that, according to the requirements of the Central Bank, the original two-Suite settlement and re-lending were implemented in accordance with the first suite.
According to the reporter's understanding, on the first day after the National Day, the Bank of China in Shenzhen issued a notice that a suite should be settled and then loaned, and the first suite policy should be implemented; if a second suite loan is not settled, the Second Suite loan policy should be implemented; if three or more housing units are purchased, the Shenzhen shopping restriction policy is enforced. The mortgage interest rate is now available in the same city and is still subject to a 9.7 discount. If there is any change, we will notify you separately, at this stage, "Real Estate Certificate" is used to show "Residential" as the Implementation standard.
Up to now, purchase restrictions have not been relaxed in only the five cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Sanya, which means that banks may neither recognize houses nor recognize loans in other cities.
People from the above land departments told reporters that in addition to the "four central" policies, the decision-making layer also reserves other policies to stimulate the property market. If restrictions on credit limit are relaxed, in the next step, we will not rule out the stimulus from tax reduction and nationwide relief of purchase restrictions, but we need to observe the market trend first.
After the launch of the "Four Central Rules" in September 30, in October 5, the central bank decided to adjust the credit policy for the fourth quarter and proposed "flexible use of multiple monetary policy tools to maintain moderate liquidity, achieve reasonable growth of monetary credit and social financing scale ".
Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst of Zhongyuan real estate, believes that July will be the implementation month of the credit policy. The subsequent changes in credit quotas and prices will be the most critical factors affecting the market, the space for further reduction in the market has been blocked by the loose credit policy.
However, the above-mentioned Bank of China personal loan department owner said that there is almost no possibility of a 8.5 discount on the interest rate of the first home loan, because the Bank's deposit pulling costs are high, the interest rate will be at a loss, and the discount can only be guaranteed, banks do not have the motivation to make a big discount.
According to the 360 survey, no preferential mortgage interest rate exists in Changsha in September, but the Bank team providing the benchmark interest rate for the first suite is growing, currently, four banks of the Bank of China, the Agricultural Bank of China, the Minsheng Bank and the guangfa Bank provide the benchmark interest rate for the first suite. The average mortgage interest rate of each bank also showed a significant decline from August, and the interest rate rose to less than 7%, a new low in the year.
There are also obvious signs of accelerated lending time. Compared to the status in the first half of the year, it is easy to make loans within two or three months. Currently, most banks can make loans within one month. The Agricultural Bank said that if the information is ready, the loan can be made within half a month.
Market warming
During the National Day, the reporter found that there were a large number of stores in the yanghu area where new disks were gathered in Changsha. The developers also promoted the "four Central Rules" New Deal, at present, the loan interest rate for the first suite has returned to the benchmark interest rate. Some real estate projects even said they will take back the preferential measures after the national day and do not plan to cut prices.
The sales staff of Vanke egret-gun, Lanting Bay, Xiangxi water-gun, and zhongtianqi Creek in the region told reporters that the visit volume and transaction volume of the National Day customers had rebounded from September, the number of home buyers from other places has increased significantly.
"Most of them are still watching, but the number of customers entering the market is gradually increasing. We sold 58 sets of real estate within seven days of the National Day, and September sets were sold in 105 ." Liu fenjie, marketing director of the Century Park in Changsha, told our reporter that although their real estate Customers focus on their first real estate demand, the policy to limit loans and relax the day before the National Day was announced, this has brought confidence to the entire market and increased the base of house prices. Once buyers reverse their expectations of falling house prices, they will gradually choose to enter the market.
"The price of new houses in Changsha has indeed dropped a lot. In some regions, house prices even returned to 2011, and some developers did not hesitate to sell at a loss, but buyers did not buy it ." Liu Baizhong, a senior real estate developer in Changsha, told reporters that there is no shortage of demand in the market and confidence in the market. Now the loan policy is relaxed, just like injecting a strong dose into the market. The turnover in October is expected to exceed September.
In the industry, the biggest beneficiary of the "Four Central" is the first family who bought the second suite. Previously, even if the loan was paid off, it would take 10% to pay for the first-tier cities and 70% to pay for the first-tier cities. The loan interest rate rose by at least. Now, the first payment is reduced to, and the loan interest rate can reach of the benchmark interest rate, the price difference is more than 20% lower than house price.
In fact, the first-tier cities have gradually declined to the benchmark since September, and the property market has taken the lead to recover. According to statistics from the Shenzhen Planning Land and Resources Commission, the turnover of first-hand Residential Buildings in Shenzhen reached September sets in 3113, an increase of 7.8% from the previous month, which is the month with the highest turnover this year.
Li Bin, a property consultant for Shenzhen Zhongyuan real estate, told reporters that the bank's interest rate was generally adjusted back to the benchmark in January, and there was little room for the owners' premium. during the National Day, the number of customers seeing the house increased a lot, in the past, many groups of improvement groups have been put down. After the bank limit on loans is relaxed, this demand will be centrally released.
According to CICC's analysis, improved demand generally accounts for 15%-25% of market demand, and the new policy will significantly reduce the down payment ratio of improved buyers who buy one, it is estimated that the short-term purchasing demand will be restored by 10%-20%.
According to statistics from the Central Plains real estate market research department, on the seventh day of the National Day, 538 new houses were signed on the Beijing net, 56 second-hand houses were signed on the contract, and a total of 594 houses were signed on the contract. Although this was significantly lower than the same period in 2013, but it is better than the same period in 2012.
According to Zhang Dawei's analysis, the overall property market shows signs of stabilization gradually. Especially after the central bank relaxed the limit on loans, the performance of the Beijing market in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half of the year and the fourth quarter will certainly be better than that in the third quarter.
Yang hongxu, vice president of Shanghai yiju Research Institute, also believes that the Base building signal of the property market is strong and the purchase season has arrived.
The pressure on stock removal is still high.
As soon as the stimulus policy for loan restrictions was launched, real estate companies began to speculate and threatened to raise their prices. during the National Day, several large real estate enterprises on the Internet received price increases notices, the intermediary shows evidence of price increases to buyers.
However, in fact, apart from the explicit denial of Greenfield, other property companies have already clarified the rumors of price increases.
In this regard, a marketing director of a housing company in Changsha told reporters that, under the current market conditions, the price increase in the fourth quarter of this year is impossible. In order to cater to the buyers' psychology of "purchasing up, not buying down, it can only be used as a means of speculation.
"Our sales target for this year is 0.6 billion yuan, but as of now, we have only completed less than 0.4 billion, with only less than three months left. The annual target is not expected to be completed ." The marketing director of the above-mentioned real estate enterprises said that the main target of the real estate enterprises is to go out of inventory, and the inventory must be digested before considering price increases.
It is worth noting that the inventory has increased to a new high. According to the monitoring data of Shanghai yiju research institute, as of the end of August, the total inventory of new commercial residential buildings in 35 cities was 269.31 million square meters, an increase of 1.3% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 22.6%. 31 of the 35 cities experienced a year-on-year growth in inventory. Inventory in three cities, including Nanchang, Jiujiang and Ningbo, increased by 120.9%, 68.0%, and 66.4% respectively.
In many cities, the inventory is too large, and the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to reach a balance in the short term. Therefore, Ding zuyu, president of yiju holdings, believes that this round of real estate market rebounded, there will not be a sudden increase like 2009 or 2012, or a general increase across the country.
According to the monitoring of Gao Hua securities, as of September 28, the total inventory of 11 cities tracked increased by 1.5%, the de-chemical cycle increased to 17.9 months, and the week of September 21 was 17.5 months.
At the same time, the sales performance of real estate enterprises was unsatisfactory this year. According to the completion of the sales targets of real estate enterprises monitored by chainjia real estate in the first eight months, only 12 had a target completion rate of over 50%, however, it is difficult to achieve the sales target within the year because the lowest success rate and the annual completion rate is only 18.8% and 21.1%.
"We did a survey. The most sensitive thing for buyers is the price. In the same location, buyers first consider who has a low price ." Liu Zhijie told reporters that, in the current market conditions, the de-conversion rate of falling house prices is not satisfactory, let alone the price increase. In the fourth quarter, the real estate companies are still switching the price and withdraw funds as soon as possible.
Zhang Dawei believes that with the approaching supply peak in October, the deal in Beijing is expected to reach the peak of the year. However, under the pressure of low storage, new disk sales rate, inventory and other indicators, only reasonable pricing can convert the supply peak to the deal peak. Because the market is in a recovery phase, real estate companies are still mainly engaged in price distribution, and the main performance in the fourth quarter will be the stability of price increases.
(China Times)
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