The future of Linux: evolution is everywhere

Mark Shuttleworth previously closed the bug No. 1 of UbuntuLinux ("Microsoft has the highest market share"), leading to some controversy and some meaningful discussions, discuss the path Linux has taken since Linus Torvalds invented Linux as a personal plaything project in 1991.

Microsoft may not leave the historical stage of desktop systems as quickly as possible, but as Linux grows into an important cornerstone of the IT industry, the nature of computers has completely changed. Today, from cloud services to mobile operating systems, almost all fields in the industry have been directly promoted or indirectly influenced by Linux.

Linux: submission, review, and adoption

With the increasing number of supporters, the development process of Linux is also accelerating.

But where is the development direction? If the popularity and Development of Linux is approaching its peak, where will Linux go next? Because Linux has a high degree of customization and many "separation" features, maybe no single answer can answer this question.

Perhaps more importantly, it is how the rapidly growing Linux system can cope with the challenges, become more mature and stable, and become the leader in the Market Development in multiple fields. Next, let's try to predict the future of Linux from the following aspects: raw materials, Community products and enterprise contributions, various challenges facing its characteristics, technical strength and growth direction.

Linux as a raw material: Bending and shaping. What do you want it to do?

If you use an adjective to sum up the unique advantages of Linux, it is "malleable )". Linux is such a raw material that can be bound and cut, or customized for any occasion, ranging from embedded devices to large-scale parallel supercomputer.

But at the same time, this is one of the shortcomings of Linux. Its ever-changing features make it rarely look like "Linux"-on the contrary, people use a variety of "Linux-based" products, hardware devices such as Android and home routers. Multiple releases of Desktop Linux (which are often incompatible with each other) also split the most loyal user groups into seven parts.

Jim Zemlin, executive director of the Linux Foundation, admitted that "the experience of Linux end users is indeed fragmented, but this is also a powerful feature of Linux ."

"It is like a building foundation that enables Google to build Android and Chromebooks, Amazon to build Kindle, Canonical to build Ubuntu, and many other examples. All these products mean different user experiences for users, and the choice is entirely in the hands of consumers ."

Mark Baker, the Ubuntu server product manager of Canonical, is currently in charge of the Ubuntu project. His words show this point more specifically: "Open Source means freedom of choice ." Open source will naturally promote modularization. Therefore, whether you are a technical Otaku or a System Architect developing a data center, "you can select the most suitable component through open source ".

But Al Gillen, the operating environment analyst and deputy manager of the system software project at the IDC, challenges this value of "completely laissez-faire. "Linux is open-source, so anyone can modify the code and turn it into something else. However, modern industry has shown that products with no value will be eliminated, and the main line of code development should always be closely related to mainstream values ."

Android users have a deep understanding of this, and there are serious fragmentation problems between many Android operating systems. Strictly speaking, although this is not all Linux's responsibility, let's take a look at the numerous and varied Linux Desktop releases that have appeared before Android, and let the products be modified at will, differentiated implementation has a greater impact-Android fragmentation only scales up these problems.

The irony is that, even if "plasticity" is really the biggest advantage of Linux, but it is far from enough. As a raw material like this, Linux will pay exponentially.

Eric Sammer, Engineering Manager of Cloudera, did not look at this issue in an isolated way. He believes that the Linux user base is "different from that of Firefox or Apache products ", linux is not intended for end users, but for Operating System Engineers. Therefore, it needs to build a complete system together with many other software-most of which are bundled and released, and transparent to users (such as boot loader )." As Torvalds wrote in the initial Linux kernel release log, "You can't do anything with the kernel ."

Android verifies the views of Gillen and Sammer. As the most popular "derivative" in Linux, all the added value of Android comes from Google and the App ecosystem specifically developed by Google. Therefore, the plasticity of Linux is only the first step towards becoming a real product, just as enterprises, the most successful Linux advocates below, are familiar.

Enterprise contribution: Advantages and disadvantages?

Another characteristic of Linux is that it is a cooperative product created by the joint efforts of many contributors. So where do these contributors come from?

Answer: enterprise. Enterprises are the most important contributors, but they are loyal to their interests and support Linux only for their future development. Apart from Red Hat (unlike Canonical, RedHat is the most well-known Linux solution vendor), the top contributors include Intel, IBM, Texas Instruments, and even Microsoft.

The so-called "flexibility" of Linux is the ability to run on multiple platforms or devices, largely from these contributors, their main motivation comes from their own needs: for example, the code added by Microsoft for the Linux kernel greatly improves the running status of Linux under its Hyper-V product.

Sammer believes that the release of the enterprise background can be popularized because the complexity and access threshold of Linux kernel projects are too high, generally, it is difficult for Level C programmers to keep up with the kernel update progress and build community credibility by relying on their personal abilities rather than Enterprise Support in their spare time, or make some significant contributions ". In his view, enterprises have the ability to have resources to support such efforts. In contrast, universities and research institutions have been far behind.

But does the popularity of Enterprise releases mean that Linux is under control of enterprises? Is this the future of Linux? Is it a capital thing?

In fact, the most important thing is not who contributes the most to Linux, but the enterprise spirit represented by this contribution. Whether it's purely for money, or for giving back the money earned to the community, whatever the company's initial motivation, as a contributor to Linux, they have always been steadfast in their contribution.

Mark Coggin, Senior Marketing Director of Linux Redhat Enterprise Edition, believes that "the best innovation is the solutions that have been used and improved by countless participants in the open-source community ."

"All our new ideas will first serve as open-source projects, seek the gain evaluation from the Community's upstream project team, and then join products such as Red Hat Enterprise Edition. We hope that everyone who works for the Linux kernel and supporting projects can have the same vision as us ."

There is also a small part of the view that the enterprise release version of Linux is actually a "kidnapped Linux ", as Gillen advocates-this is a way for Linux to "slightly less fit the needs of mainstream user groups. He is confident that commercial support for Linux and Commercial optimization "are of great benefit to the development model of Linux, not the opposite ."

Similarly, for Zenmlin, Linux development is "not a zero-sum game"

"If a developer in the mobile field improves power consumption, another developer working in a data center will benefit from this, he can use improvements from the former to ensure that his data services run more efficiently, "Zemlin said." shared development is why Linux is so powerful."

Similarly, enterprise development is not an enemy. "It is never a bad thing for people to pay for Linux development. These money can make Linux improvements and innovations faster and faster ."

The real problem is, Baker added, "some super-large network companies have made improvements to Linux and launched their applications, but they have put these improvements to their own advantages ."

The third version of the GPL protocol-improved from an earlier version of the Linux publishing protocol-was modified partly to address the above behavior. However, the Protocol can only prevent re-development as a Web service after obtaining others' code. In addition, there is no inherent method (or legal means) to prohibit companies or individuals from blocking and exclusive code after code development. Maybe, this is part of the inevitable social cost of Linux's free access to the world.

The greatest threats to Linux

Thanks to the open-source mechanism, Linux has always been an open-source project, so enterprises cannot be as dedicated as they used. In addition to enterprises, what is the biggest threat to Linux?

No one will really think that Linux will be threatened by copyright fraud or litigation, and will not disappear from the OS layout. Like the largest legal case, the SCO Group sued IBM and was widely interpreted as an indirect attack on Linux, which eventually ended with a tragic failure, this case indirectly led to the bankruptcy of the SCO Group ).

Coggin also tends to this point of view: "Thanks to the huge Developer Network and Global Promotion, Linux has achieved great success, which means it has a strong toughness. Although patent threats have been increasing, as many tech companies have recently done, patent litigation does not seem to pose any material threat to Linux ."

In addition, competition for other open-source products, even more open-source protocols (such as various bsders), has not yet been achieved to the extent that the elimination of Linux is at risk.

Sammer summed it up with one word. Within the legal scope, Linux is facing the biggest threat: complacency! -- Be complacent that it has become a market leader in all fields.

He said, "If you are competing for the first place, you are often willing to make changes more openly, whether in the process, in the mentality, or on the development path, even maintain the status quo. Think about how much shares Firefox has been stolen by Chrome at such a high speed, and think about how many examples of commercial Unix have been seized by Linux ."

Based on the same idea, Zemlin sees such a threat. In the face of increasing demands, talented Linux developers are more than enough, but lack of experience, therefore, we have a Linux training program.

The threats identified by Gillen come from changes in the Community. "over time, the mainstream Linux user base-the Community-is switching from enterprise customers (service consumers) to service providers ."

Such a change may result in Linux users being forced to serve as Linux service providers, but they are completely unable to give their wisdom and innovation back to the community. This change may last for more than ten years, but it "has a profound negative impact on the entire Linux world, including various Linux commercial publishers ."

Another potential threat to Linux is company merger, which does not threaten Linux itself, but may indirectly lead to various possibilities. Baker worries about the rapid growth of mobile devices. In addition to the development of Linux itself, it is more affected by enterprises.

"That's why we need a second option, such as Ubuntu and Firefox, to provide real alternatives for those who are reluctant to be put at the mercy of Apple and Google when surfing the Internet," he said ."

Speaking of Google, Google is the strongest defender of Android development. There are a lot of arguments against the development of Android as a Linux system. Such arguments are just as redundant for Google's world view as compared with its homepage, at the same time, they do not conform to the spirit of Linux (free and open.

In short, the biggest threat currently facing Linux comes from its own-inadvertently, the first criterion for measuring Linux products has become how to make it look more attractive. For a long time, the inherent flexibility and plasticity of Linux have helped it overcome complacency and enterprise mergers and overcome many difficulties, but it is still unclear whether or not the situation can continue.

Where is the path?

There is no doubt that at any level, Linux is now at a critical crossroads, and it is worth exploring where it will go and what kind of price it will pay.

The path to the most obvious future of Linux is, first, not just a cornerstone, or a way to build infrastructure. Second, it should reduce the number of product forms. Finally, real innovation not only expands Linux itself, but also expands it as an innovative solution to Problem Discovery. At present, few people treat Linux like this. To do so, in addition to calling more people to change their views on Linux, they must also break down technical barriers and take a longer-term look.

Coggin said: "Linux is gradually becoming a more complete or flexible operating system, surpassing its role as an infrastructure platform. We can see that developers and architects are using Linux to build a new generation of solutions and create a new generation of enterprise architecture ." Most of the work has been put into practice, he said, including "cloud computing, big data, mobile, social networks, and many other aspects ".

Gillen also agreed that Linux "will soon become a critical part of public cloud infrastructure. As a result, Linux ensures that it can play a long-term role in modern industry ."

Baker said, "Linux is already running cloud services, and there is no doubt that it needs to consolidate its position as an infrastructure platform-which means it needs to maintain the latest technological advantages at all times, for example, ARM service chips, ultra-large-scale integrated circuits, network design, and all software design data centers." The above work should be effectively supplemented by open-source system hardware design (such as open-source computer projects.

Linux: submission, review, and adoption

With the increasing positive demand, the development process of Linux is also accelerating.

Linux, as a common infrastructure element, has a potential disadvantage: it may become a commercial product of the system, just as it once replaced closed-source Unix. But Zemlin believes that the great flexibility of Linux has played a role in this regard: "If you asked Linus Torvalds or other community members more than a decade ago, will Linux install more mobile phones than any other platform? Of course, they will say no '. So all we have to do is watch the development of Linux and don't try to predict it, because almost all predictions will be wrong ."

Another important future development direction, as mentioned above, "beyond Google, there will be greater development in the mobile field," Baker predicted. Like Mozilla's Firefox operating system project for mobile phones, this is a typical attempt. Despite the existence of Google and the huge market share of Android, the chances of success are unclear.

Finally, who is responsible for guiding the future of Linux. Because Linux can be copied and developed by others (fork) at will, history has proved that having a single core development team is the best for Linux and requires all the projects based on the team, its core is always available.

In this way, the core team can assume more responsibilities to promote Linux to make up for existing or future deficiencies, avoid closed-doors technical blockades, and ultimately make Linux the most appropriate way.

If the future of Linux is everywhere, no one can imagine what it will look like-this is a good thing, isn't it?