The investment value algorithm of convertible bonds _financing

Transfer: An investment value algorithm for convertible bonds

In the case of transferring debts of BOC:

At the end of 2011, Bank of China per share of net assets of 2.59 yuan, 2012 3 quarter of the end of 2.84 yuan per share, Bank of China from 2009 to 2011, the three-year Roe are more than 15%, 2012 years before the three-quarter Roe has reached 13.43%, then the annual Roe reached 15% Should not be a problem, it is estimated at the end of 2012 its net assets of 2.98 Yuan.

At present, the price is 3.44 yuan, the stock price is 3.10 yuan, then the value of converting the debt value of 100 yuan into the stock should be: 100/3.44x3.10=90.12 yuan. The current bond price is 104.70 yuan, which is obviously overvalued.

But if the company down to the stock price, such as down to the end of 2012, near the net assets, such as 3.00 yuan, and the assumption that the stock price is still 3.10 yuan, then the value of the conversion of 100 yuan into the debt is worth: 100/3.00x3.10=103.33 yuan, a sudden rise in the value of debt, This is not difficult to explain yesterday, the bank issued a plan to cut the price of the announcement, the transfer of debt immediately after the reasons for the rise.

The current share price corresponding to the 2012 three quarter of the net assets of its PB is 1.09 times times, if the end of net assets as expected to rise to 2.98 yuan, and PB is still 1.09 times times, then its share price should be 1.09x2.98=3.25 yuan, then to turn the value of 100 yuan into the shares should be: 100 /3.00x3.25=108.33 Yuan.

If the bull market comes, the BOC valuation may be more than 1.09 times PB, and the value of the debt will probably be more than 108.33 yuan.

All in all, the value of the =100/to the stock price x =100/to the price XPBX per share of net assets, that is, the value of the transfer of debt depends on the price, PB, net assets per share of these three, we can through the number of these three quickly calculate the value of the transfer of debt, and then at a lower than the value of their transfer debt to buy, In order to ensure that at low risk to obtain a certain amount of income.

Therefore, we may calculate the value of ICBC's transfer of debt:

100/3.77x4.42=117.24 Yuan, the current bond price is 120 yuan, obviously not cheap.

More comprehensive consideration, BOC transfer debt expires June 2, 2016, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 interest rate is 1.1%, 1.4%, 1.7%, 2%, the deduction after tax can actually get the interest is: 6.2x80%=4.96 yuan, and the redemption price is 106 yuan ( Including the last year's interest of 2 yuan, then the final maturity can get 4.96+104=108.96 yuan. So to buy below 108.96 yuan has certain security, but need to consider the following mentioned early redemption risk.

The early redemption price is the nominal value + the current period interest, assumes the early redemption event before June this year, then the company may 100+1.1x80%=100.88 the debt to redeem the bond, therefore buys the debt to consider the early redemption risk.

There is no return offer for bank transfers, so don't worry about it.

In short, there are four main elements to be considered in the transfer of debt: transfer of stock price, return price, advance redemption price, and redemption price at maturity.

Of course, if the review of their credit rating, whether there is a guarantee, whether it can be pledged to do the repurchase is more comprehensive.

Also, smart investors can consider doing equity arbitrage.