Thinking in Change: four laws that are still effective

2. Four laws that are still valid

IT practitioners know the famous Moore's Law and Bell's law. These two laws complement each other, the former determines that the speed of the microprocessor will double every 18 months, while the latter believes that if the computing power remains unchanged, the price and size of the microprocessor will be halved every 18 months, this means that at the same price, the speed of the microprocessor will become faster and faster, and the price of the same speed of the microprocessor will become cheaper and cheaper-now it seems that, predictions many years ago are at least applicable to the development speed of memory space, hard disk space, graphics card and LCD. I think before quantum computing and DNA computing, these two laws will remain effective and useful-high-end enterprises will make profits at faster and faster computing speeds, while grass-roots users will also benefit from lower and lower computing costs-computing will become ubiquitous in the Internet era, and the cost is getting lower and lower. It also works with Gilder's law and Metcalfe's law ). George Gilder predicted that the bandwidth of the backbone network will double every six months in the next 25 years, much faster than the CPU growth. A recent test by Microsoft proves that it takes only one second to transmit 1 GB of information wirelessly within 300 kilometers, which is 10 thousand times the modem transmission capability in our computer! This fact shows that there is no technical obstacle to increasing bandwidth, but it only depends on the needs of users. The demand is getting stronger, the bandwidth will also increase, and the cost of Internet access will naturally decrease. One day, people will gradually forget words like "surfing the Internet" because they live in the network every moment. What Will infinite computing and ample bandwidth bring to us? Bob Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet, said: network value is directly proportional to the number of users on the network. That is, N connections can create "n × n" benefits. According to this statement, the growth rate of the Internet will be unprecedented, which fully proves the potential value of the network economy.

The four precepts in the network revolution constitute a solid triangle. Moore's Law and Bell's law are the first points of this image. The other two vertices are gidard's law and matkalov's law, the four laws support each other and restrict each other.

3. The new generation of multimedia technology will greatly improve the quality of human work and life.

The emerging multimedia technology has the following characteristics. Create more vivid 2D and 3D scenes; have personalized, structured intelligence and searchability; interactive and dynamic; relying on the network environment-this technology integrates the advantages of network communication, computer and entertainment in three traditional industries, and has extremely broad application prospects: the convergence of wireless communication, Internet, and multimedia technologies allows users to use any device anytime and anywhere to enjoy the experience that can only be experienced in the past.

4. the maturity of speech recognition technology revolutionizes man-machine interfaces

In the Internet era, users need a more natural, simpler, and more convenient human-machine interface centered on voice. In the next five years, the practical speech recognition and audio-character conversion technologies will go out of the lab for the first time, it is integrated into thousands of household electrical appliances. Moore's law predicts that the miraculous update speed of hardware products will allow computers to handle complex computations by leaps and bounds, it also gives a huge corpus the opportunity to stay on the hard disk or other storage media of ordinary users. In terms of technology, new rhythm structure analysis and voice statistics algorithms are becoming increasingly mature. In terms of market demand, voice Technology is the best way to simplify the tedious operation steps of PDAs, mobile phones, and other information appliances.

5. "artificial intelligence" will change to "artificial intelligence"

The current research on Artificial Intelligence (Artificial Intelligence) is still in the process of making machines imitate humans, but this is a treasure Road. Similar research believes that the thinking activities of the human brain can be defined by some simple formulas and rule settings. However, people do not have a thorough understanding of the mechanisms of self-consciousness, let alone the luxury of copying this mechanism to machines. The intelligent agent attempts to solve this problem in the opposite direction, first, the researchers translate the simplest rules of specific human behaviors into languages that machines can understand. On this basis, they constantly pass more behavior patterns to machines, in this way, the machine is in a state of continuous learning, memory, adaptation, and optimization. The more you learn, the more intelligent the machine is, the more personalized the machine is, in the end, people cannot accurately define the potential feedback of machines. In the final analysis, "intelligence" should be the goal rather than the means, and "intelligent AI" will certainly become a core technology in the network environment. Human-Machine intelligent dialog becomes possible, while Turing testing will turn into reality in some specific fields.

6. "B2B" and "P2P" will become the main driving force of the network economy, and the Internet architecture is changing.

The advantages of the network economy are embodied in two aspects: improving production efficiency and competitiveness, and improving the quality of life of people. This can also be seen as the basic goal of all technological innovation. The B2B model greatly reduces the cost required for enterprise marketing and gives both parties unprecedented freedom. Although P2P (Peer to Peer) is just a new trend, however, its appearance is profoundly affecting the Internet architecture in the future: service providers that develop game rules hide behind the scenes and give full control of the game to common users, in this way, the communication between netizens and netizens is truly direct, simple, and free.

The Internet architecture, from centralization to decentralization, is scattered to centralization, and finally forms a situation in which there are points in points and points in points. This is the development history of Internet.

7. Smart Home Appliances and home network will start in Asia, while Digital High Definition TV (HDTV) will become mainstream in the United States.

The factors that make up this situation are not complex. Asians have a high level of acceptance for new household appliances. Fashion digital products such as PDAs, MD, and DVDs can all open the market in Asia, while sales in the United States are poor. Secondly, even though, American families have a better living environment and the computer penetration rate is also high, however, for Asian families whose living environment is generally crowded and whose incomes are relatively low, how to reasonably arrange the layout of household appliances in a small space, and how to enjoy the advanced results of the information revolution at a low cost is the most important thing. The demand still determines the consumption. While HDTV is not, China still has a long way to go in terms of digital signal transmitting station and other infrastructure construction, and the United States has begun to take actions in this regard. within five years, more than 90% of TV stations in the United States will be able to send DTV, and the popularity of HDTV will also greatly improve people's entertainment methods.

8. After a period of saturation, the PC will rise again within two years, and the NC's ideal will never be realized.

At first glance, it seems a bit sensational, but we have some facts as the basis. First, the global PC family ownership rate is only about 10%, while in developing countries, this number is even lower than 5%, that is, the market is still far from full saturation. Second, despite the rapid development of smart home appliances, it is still unable to speak with PC in terms of computing power, display function, storage and data processing function. PC is still the best way to access the Internet. With the rise of P2P and the gradual formation of home network, the PC will become the server in the home network center in response to the need to return to the client. The re-emergence of PCs, the ever-decreasing prices, and the diversity of the Internet will make the ideal concept of network computers (NC) never come true.

The network itself is not a bubble, and the network economy is not a bubble. Only. com enterprises that are eager for quick success can break down and even disappear in the storm of the information revolution. The predecessors said: "Without a long journey, there is no way to build a river without accumulating small streams ." New things are not perfect, and no one will deny their value because of this "imperfection. Many believe that Citigroup/Travel Group CEO will predict that 80% of network companies will disappear within five years. However, in the past five years, the number of companies that are good at summing up lessons and learning from experiences will rise to the interconnected waters. Let's imagine that, in the near future, the flood of E-commerce will overwhelm the boundaries between countries and races and put a new life high. It will be a wall without walls, there is no dangerous trading environment. In the future, China will become the world's largest Internet, Smart appliances, wireless communications, and PC market ......

The current shortcomings will surely be gradually improved in the continuous development, but for the network revolution that profoundly affects our lives, we hope it will be faster and more stable.