See this headline, it is expected that very many people will think I'm going to black millet, frankly, in the author's very many people's view, the value of $40 billion is really not cheap, but does not mean that no investors to pay for it, shopping malls are like this, a willing to play a willing to take, we can think of Xiaomi this financing intention as fishing May be the bait this is nothing to say, it is not from you and I take the money in the pocket.
Why does Xiaomi dare to mention such a valuation?
Why does Xiaomi dare to mention such a valuation? The reasons are probably as follows:
1th, there are reports that Xiaomi earlier rejected a $30 billion-worth financing package, in fact, after a round of financing last August, its valuation has reached $10 billion, more than a year to four times times the value of the time, what gave Xiaomi so much confidence? Assuming investors are willing to invest in Xiaomi with a $30 billion valuation, the $40 billion valuation level is expected to be a "bottom line" for investors, Mithila. With valuations floating at 33.3%, investors who are really bullish on Xiaomi don't care about the money, and it's not hard to accept that Xiaomi has been listed on the Chinese Internet table, against the market capitalisation of several other giants. For them, it is either more than 33. 3% of the money to take the same shares, either to dig the same money, less to take a bit of shares. But let's say that Xiaomi can actually develop according to their expectations, regardless of which valuation its rate of return is leveraged.
2nd, Xiaomi's performance can explain the problem to some extent. Merrill Lynch has reportedly updated a new study, noting that companies such as Xiaomi and Huawei, which have lost money, have now started making profits. As seen, for example, Huawei and Xiaomi are upstream in gross margins this year, and analysts feel that Xiaomi may be earning more than $1 billion this year. If Xiaomi really can make 1 billion dollars a year, then the comparison of 40 billion of the valuation, the price-earnings ratio is 40 times times, it does not seem high ah.
3rd, Xiaomi has a lot of intangible assets, such as the so-called millet ecology, smart hardware, smart home and so on. Not long ago, Xiaomi also announced a series of smart home new products, such as small ant intelligent camera, Millet smart sockets, yeelight smart lights and Millet Intelligent Remote Control center and so on. It is clear that these strategies will have a significant impact on Xiaomi's valuation.
It's just that Xiaomi must understand that since smartphones have reached a ripe stage, the mobile phone business does not significantly boost Xiaomi valuations. However, smart home, wearable devices These "intangible assets" prospects may be relatively broad, and is now in the early stages of development, the millet valuation is a good concept of packaging.
In this sense, Xiaomi 40 billion dollar valuation is still a bit reliable, but the so-called plan does not change quickly, investors face Xiaomi such companies still need to be more careful, how do you say?
is Xiaomi likely to face a lean situation?
One of the biggest problems with Xiaomi is that, in addition to the mobile phone business, it is not a cash cow, and so many other businesses are not going to be a new profit support. Xiaomi's hardware quality, production technology and so on are still in the lower level, that is, the brand value of millet will not be greatly improved because of the good sale of its products, because users choose the important reason for millet is only relatively cheap.
Then assume that the low-end mobile market competition is increasingly fierce, coupled with increasing market saturation, as well as the user change the frequency of mobile phone decline, how to guarantee the growth rate of millet? In such a case, smart hardware, smart home hypothesis can not become millet and another profit growth point, millet will not fall into the lean situation?
In fact, even Apple is very difficult to escape, but Apple has a huge global influence, there are a large number of fans, which makes Apple's new products can be a curse to create success. And for millet, only by the power of rice noodles, or again again hunger marketing, can maintain the existing rally? Very doubtful.
Again, smart hardware and smart homes seem promising, but most businesses, including Xiaomi, are still groping and "trying to be wrong". What about Xiaomi's little technical content is not enough for Apple, Google, or even the domestic bat giants to "jam" their teeth, and how can they boost their valuations? May even become a burden on millet.
Pre-Award for Xiaomi's future performance growth
In my opinion, Xiaomi faces great uncertainty, so it is not very reliable to measure Xiaomi's valuation with concept or income growth rate. Plus Xiaomi is now in the low-end market and lower prices, and as the market share expands, to maintain the trend of income growth, that means that the gross margin may continue to decrease, that is, Xiaomi's income may continue to grow, but the net profit to a certain extent may not rise.
To solve the problem, Xiaomi has to speed up the layout of its software and services. In the 2014 China Software Hundred Enterprises list, Xiaomi ranked 38, software business annual income of 2.5 billion yuan. This can be said to be a good start, but in the software and mobile Internet to grab a lot of other real money, Xiaomi had to beware of bat.
In the author's view, Bat will become a stumbling block for Xiaomi in software and mobile Internet, on the one hand, bat basically guard every important gateway of the Internet, other enterprises can only make a little bit of it; on the other hand, Xiaomi is now trying to build a complete ecosystem through hardware terminals and operating systems. What do you want to do in this eco-system? But Xiaomi must be clear that for instant messaging and search for the most basic internet services, even Xiaomi's ecosystem is strong enough to prevent giants such as bat from penetrating, just as Xiaomi cannot prevent its users from using it, so how much business value can this ecosystem bring to it, Still need to hit a question mark.
Only the author of the future of Millet is more confident, difficulties certainly have, but it is not impossible to solve, so the outside need not to sneer at Xiaomi, even if Microsoft, Google this world-class giants are afraid to say smooth sailing, not to mention the establishment of a few years of millet. (Wen/Wangyi see qq:543415188)
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Valuation 40 billion, millet willing to fight who would like to be?
