[Value reading]PP will die, web eternal life.]

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Introduction: Here, said the app will die, Web life, is the current need to download and install mobile Internet application Mode, inevitably decline (but not decay), and the rise of the generation is based on HTML and browser applications, will be a comeback, re-occupy mobile and the dominant position of the entire Internet application. The reason behind this is carefully dissected below.

As we look back at the evolutionary history of technology, we should also focus on the logic behind the evolution of technology.

Article/Five Lake Guest
A few years ago, the United States Wired magazine published the article "Web is dead, the internet is immortal," and because one of the authors is the author of the Long Tail theory, Chris Anderson (Chrisanderson, who is also the editor of Wired magazine), the article has a big impact.
Over the years, as mobile phones and tablets have been hot, nativeapp, and even the American social-networking site, LinkedIn, has transformed web-based mobile apps into app-based mobile apps, and last year Facebook's founder, Zuckerberg, acknowledged " Focusing on HTML5 is the biggest mistake he has ever made. " It seems that WebApp really became "backward productivity". Just a few weeks ago, it was reported that Apple's app downloads reached 50 billion, an impressive number.
However, when we look at the origins of the web and the reasons for its growth, we still have reason to believe that the app will die and the Web is immortal.
Here, saying that the app will die, web immortality, is that the current need to download and install mobile Internet application Mode, inevitably decline (but will not die), and the rise of the generation is based on HTML and browser applications, will be a comeback, re-occupy mobile and the dominant position of the entire Internet application. The reason behind this is carefully dissected below.
A web of past life
1 origin of the Internet
To understand what makes Web applications (browser-based) occupy the dominance of the PC age, and why it will make a comeback in the era of mobile Internet, it is necessary to review the web's past life and the power behind its rebirth.
From the 1961 paper on computer network communication Exchange, to 1965 two computers connected to the first computer network was born, the communication between computers formally entered the field of vision. People have designed the TCP/IP protocol, which is the basic protocol of the Internet. For example, if the network is a postman, TCP/IP is the address standard and format of two communication people, without this standard, the postman is unable to send letters to the addressee. But send the letter to, just the first step of communication, the content of the letter must be written in the language of the sender and the recipient understand, otherwise is're same page, this language, replaced by computer terminology, is the document/text level of the agreement.
In the late 60, IBM published a Communication Protocol (language) at the file/text (document) level, the GML (generalizedmarkuplanguage-Universal Identity language), and by 80, GML evolved into an international standard SGML ( Standardgeneralizedmarkuplanguage). SGML has the following features: Standard, open, cross-platform, free (independent of hardware and software, independent of any vendor). Below I look at the power of these features.
2 The power behind the technology
When we look back at the history of computer development, and even the broader view of modern business history, we find that "standards, openness, cross-platform, freedom" is the power to promote the popularization or revolution of many technologies. Don't underestimate the skill of these nine words.
First talk about the "standard", the author once and a manufacturing standards of the scholar chat, he gave a standardized power example, he said once to India on business, see the street all kinds of restaurants, do not know how to choose, but he saw McDonald's, went in, he is not like his eyes of junk food, but he knows, McDonald's in the world is the same, there will be no selling sheep head, hanging dog meat things happen. McDonald's in the United States eat what taste, in other places also what taste. The results will be fully in line with the expectations of the heart. In North America, Chinese restaurants are everywhere, but rarely bigger, let alone the influence of McDonald's.
I think one of the reasons is that there is no standardization, the same name of a dish, in the restaurant a You may eat teeth to stay residual incense, in the restaurant B may eat stomach. In a strange place, in a situation where you don't want to risk your stomach, the choice of diners is often to choose a restaurant that you already know, and the role of standardization will be apparent.
In fact, the history of communications has been the result of standardization of Industry Revolution, 1847, the United States Postal Service first introduced the postage stamps (postage fee standardization), to 1890, Its mail volume soared from 125 million in 1847 to 4 billion in 1890, while the U.S. population increased from about 23 million in 1847 to around 62 million. Similar examples have occurred in the mechanical industry. Standardization is the basis on which mechanical parts can be interchanged. If we carefully examine the role of standardization in the process of social development, how to emphasize its importance is not excessive.
Talk about "open", now, many people do not know Wang Company, can be in the early 80 to the middle of 80, Wang is second only to IBM computer company, Wang himself was once included in the top ten richest list of the United States. But in 92 it filed for bankruptcy protection. An important reason for Wang's failure is that it has not taken the open route and is not taking the route compatible with IBM computers. We'll talk about that later. Because the standards are open, this gives all companies a free ticket to the field. "Open" created the PC and Microsoft, but also some to take the closed line of the company, and the originator of the PC, Apple was almost closed because of the closure.
"Cross-platform" is not much to say, its benefits are obvious, we have already witnessed its power in the information industry.
Dontapscott, the best-selling author, has investigated a number of "free" choices as the first feature of the Internet generation (age, including Gen Y and younger) in his bestseller "Digital Generation" (grownupdigital).
In fact, the author's experience, not only as an individual network generation, the freedom as an indispensable part of life, even as a large enterprise, will be "free" as a very important technical policy. They prefer "free" technology with higher costs, rather than low-cost technology, which is locked down by a company.
Many of the world's top 500 companies prefer open Java Technology platform to develop information application projects, and do not choose ms.net technology, "Freedom" is one of the important reasons. Because of the many developers who use Java as a standard language, these big companies want to keep the "freedom" of replacing any technology supplier, they don't want to be locked up by a Microsoft company, and once locked up by a company, the long-time cost will not be low.
Such things are commonplace in other business areas, and see many of Wal-Mart's suppliers being squeezed by Wal-Mart, not long ago, when they saw reports that several furniture vendors in Heilongjiang were being squeezed by Ikea because Ikea was almost their only customer. So whether you're a supplier or a customer, being locked up by a company is a matter of being stuck in the neck. Commercially, there have been many examples of "freedom", which in some ways is low cost.
3 Avenue to "minus"
Read here, we naturally think that SGML has "standard, open, cross-platform, free" all the characteristics of the Internet, the Basic agreement has already existed, it can be said that in the late 80, the last century, the internet revolution all elements seem to have, why SGML did not become the protagonist of the Internet revolution?
The answer is "complex"! How complex is SGML? Let's take a look at the intuitive example, EDI (electronicdatainterchange– Electronic Data Interchange) is a data exchange protocol for Supply chain management (now replaced by XML), which can be said to be an ancestor of e-commerce, EDI is a reference to the identity syntax of SGML. The consequences of complexity are high costs. In the middle of the 90 's, when the internet first emerged, an EDI consultant charged $700 an hour and converted to an annual salary of 100 good hundreds of thousands of dollars. This allows you to visualize the complexity of SGML. In the history of IT industry, no matter how cool, complex software technology, finally not already euthanasia, just in the narrow field of life. I believe there will be no exceptions in the future. Either it becomes simple or it is simply eliminated. "Complexity" is the shortest plate of SGML, and its short.
IT industry has many "high-handsome rich", they have both the ability to change the world, but also have a dream to change the world, however, it industry changes the world, but also rewrite the history of the most beautiful laurel-the father of the Internet, but let a "dick Silk" physicist-timberners-lee picked up, in fact, Timberners-lee do is nothing but subtraction, that is, to simplify the standard of SGML, which is different from some of Steve Jobs's approach to the work of the wonderful, hey, the road to "minus"! Timberners-lee simplifies SGML while also creating the HTTP protocol, HTTP is a client/server-side (Client/server) model of the Application layer protocol, it and HTML have a common feature, is simple, and is extremely simple, Its earliest version has only one method (Get). "Simple" for Developers (business), means low cost. This is important both for users and for businesses.
Although HTML is not entirely developed by SGML, HTML inherits the genes of SGML: Standard, open, cross-platform, free (independent of hardware and software, independent of any vendor). But at the same time, HTML does not have the drawbacks of SGML-complexity. It can be said that the birth of the 1990 HTML and HTTP is the real beginning of the internet revolution. 1990 can be said to be the internet revolution.
Many people equate the web with the Internet, but the internet is much larger than the Web, and the Web is only part of the Internet, otherwise the web will die, the Internet is immortal. Web applications are browser-based, the earliest version of the browser is also Timberners-lee led development, in fact, the browser can be said to be an internet nativeapp, but it is a platform for the beginning of the application.
4 Free Lunch
However, we can still exploit the Nativeapp of HTTP, just like a browser, why did Nativeapp not become the mainstream of Internet applications from the very beginning? I think there are several reasons:
Free is the first reason, Yahoo's history, it is believed that most people are familiar with, Yahoo's biggest contribution may be in the early years of the Internet, the creation of a free model, this model, the browser is a platform for Web applications to be a great help. Yahoo is not even the first commercial website, but also the most influential site in the early days of the internet revolution.
Free for early Web applications is a catalyst that greatly accelerates the spread of Web applications (websites). The second reason is that, in the early 90 's, software development tools and technologies are far less developed and powerful than they are today, and people are using off-the-shelf browsers as a platform to develop Web applications that are much less costly than their own development nativeapp, and have much lower maintenance costs and upgrade costs.
Of course, free is probably due to the start of Yahoo's founder on the internet as a new media, one of the main revenue models of the media is advertising, and the value of advertising is a huge audience/audience, so the beginning of traffic is the focus of Yahoo, so-called "eyeball" is also. Because if you start to charge the content, the speed will be much slower, and start-up companies absolutely do not do the traditional media, because the traditional media content reserves, is the start-up companies. So with the free mode, quickly attract "eyeball" is the best choice. This is one of the reasons for the rapid rise of Yahoo, but also later led to it by a rising star of Google and face book beyond an inducement.
The internet has the characteristics of media, but definitely not the media, like QQ can be used to chat, but QQ is not the same as the telephone. Perhaps, when Yahoo invited a traditional media old man to be the CEO, its fate was doomed, but I am optimistic about the beauty of the CEO, she redefined Yahoo as a technology company, so that it can be revitalized. Free, this is still one of the important forces of the Internet, the future is no exception. But at the same time, the content of fees and services has started to be accepted by users, which is also more and more easily related to payments.
5 Why is the Web?
Browser as a platform for HTML, formally because of the HTML features above, the web has dominated the era of Internet applications. This is also related to another factor, that is, the user experience, although the user experience of the Web interface is not as Nativeapp, but because the web is a novelty, people are receptive to its shortcomings. But the main reasons why Web applications dominate are:
A. For users, if each site is a Nativeapp, then users will install a large number of apps on the computer.
B. For developers, if the adoption of Nativeapp, to consider different platforms, development costs are higher, in fact, many companies in-house applications from Nativeapp to WebApp, which is one of the main reasons. While developers also consider the differences between browsers for WebApp, they are much less expensive because browsers are based on HTML and HTTP standards and protocols.
C. When the Nativeapp upgrade, the user will upgrade the installation, and developers are more painful, because to consider different platforms.
D.webapp Basic is free, but can still find revenue model, but if it is Nativeapp, because installed on the user's PC, in addition to the fee download, it is difficult to find a suitable fee model, especially in the 90 's. The toll model also gives users a lot more trouble and worry than the free model. Unless the user feels particularly necessary, the charging model is very difficult to get through in the early days of the internet revolution.
Two new era of the Internet
With the advent of the mobile internet era, WebApp seems to have lost its luster. This is because:
First of all, HTML4.0 was released 2000 years ago, in that era, basic or dial-up internet, since then, there are a few major technical progress, one is the popularity of broadband, resulting in the emergence of video applications, the second is the rise of the so-called Web2.0 (including blog applications, etc.), more important is the rise of mobile internet. And HTML4.0-based browsers are obviously not suitable for a new era. Because it lacks the following characteristics:
1. No support for video
2. No geographic information-based interface (Web-based geo-information services cannot be developed)
3. Support for the operation of data elements (text, images, etc.) is not rich and powerful (affecting the mobile web game experience)
4. No other common application interface (such as photography, video, etc.)
Second, the mobile Internet, is currently a smartphone dominated, it is different from the computer has three points: 1. Small (not only small size, more critical is the screen is small) 2. " Light "-its hardware processing power is 3 of the" light "magnitude compared to desktops." Narrow "– bandwidth is narrow, even if 4G technology, due to the use of mobile phone internet places, usually densely populated places, bandwidth resources are common, so its bandwidth is still controlled by the environment. Obviously, the small screen limits the free mode of the original way, because it is difficult for businesses or developers to generate revenue through advertising. Developers have to separate channels to find income patterns, otherwise it is difficult to survive.
In 2008, the opening of the Apple App Store gave a lot of developers a profit channel, in addition, the mobile terminal is not strong enough processing power and bandwidth limitations (serious impact on the user experience), there is no good way to profit, coupled with the new HTML5.0 delay is not finalized ( HTML4.0 does not support geo-information interfaces as a fatal flaw, leading to the nativeapp of the mobile Internet over the years.
However, we should see that the mobile Internet nativeapp with all the shortcomings of traditional PC software, and its advantages-the user experience, but with the progress of technology and gradually lost. Let's analyze it carefully.
Not long ago, it was reported that Samsung's 5G technology could download a movie in a second, but the 5G app could be 2020 years old. In recent years, people are still trapped in the bandwidth problem. These features of smartphones, coupled with HTML4 's inherent flaws, coupled with the rise of Apple's "Joe Master" 's genius product design and the Apple App Store, have led to the use of the app in the past few years, and that's the article on the connection (Wired) that this article started with, But in that article, Twitter and Facebook were seen as Nativeapp, purely a la lang match. Because of its small screen, now the smartphone business model in addition to the game is based on the Geographic Information Service model, and the original most important advertising model, the useful is very limited. So the mobile internet makes a lot of shouting enough to make money but limited embarrassing situation. Mobile terminal, the most able to meet the needs of modern people to take advantage of fragmentation time, so small games are very popular.
The three app's natural hood door
Although the app has been Belittlin ' the world for a few years, many of its natural weaknesses cannot withstand the test of time, and I believe it will also lead to its inevitable decline.
First of all, unlike computers, we can not put a lot of personal sensitive information on the computer, but it is difficult to put on the phone, so security for mobile phones, than for the computer is also important. Nativeapp Security is a double-sided Ren, on the one hand, from the technical framework, Nativeapp can be more secure than WebApp, but from a realistic point of view, Nativeapp the most dangerous place is that the user is difficult to judge the malicious program developed by people. Therefore, Nativeapp can not solve the user's security concerns, but because the Web browser using sand model, WebApp has its incomparable advantages. And look at the following:
The big problem with 1.NATIVEAPP is that it's not like the web, which is not cross-platform or standard, and brings a lot of extra cost to development. Many iphone users must choose to flip the wall to install an application, that is, closed without opening the system's weaknesses. A closed physical system, over time, will automatically maximize entropy (chaos), and such information systems can not withstand the test of time.
2. With the help of the cloud, bandwidth issues can be considerably mitigated in Web applications.
3. There is, the user needs is the function, and the app is required to download the installation, the user more than one procedure, more importantly, sometimes users to compare similar products, the installation is not only the user is a burden on the hardware Resources Limited mobile terminal, is also a burden. Also, some infrequently used functions occasionally need, for example, a year if users only use one or two times the function, users have to install, app upgrade, users must follow the upgrade and so on, from the user experience point of view, Nativeapp obviously have their own irreparable defects, no matter from the developer, Or from the user's point of view, the maintenance cost is obviously higher than the Web application.
4. Since Apple opened the SDK for AppStore and open iOS in 2008, its two main advantages (the iphone's user interface and payment features) have led to an app outbreak, but these two advantages will gradually weaken with the technical progress of its competitors. However, the development of Nativeapp is like building a train, different platforms are equivalent to different tracks (lack of standardization), which is one of its Achilles ' heel.
5.NATIVEAPP developers, controlled by the App Store, have seen a similar story more than once, a highly downloaded app that can be easily kicked out of the AppStore by Apple, and this absolute control of developers is tantamount to depriving developers of the freedom to release their products. When the iphone is booming, developers have to endure it, but with the return of Web applications, there is no reason for AppStore to decline. Apple's closed model (AppStore is only one of them), inevitably led to its decline, in fact, it has been a lesson, but Steve Jobs's genius to make Apple a show of the return of the king, but jobs is not often, and open forever, if Apple does not change its closed mode, and decline again, I believe that far off. Android's market share has surpassed the market share of iOS because Android is open and free.
In summary, the app is not free (subject to the App Store), there is no standard, not open, such technology and application Mode, can "Live Forever"?
Four web will make a comeback
In addition to the inherent flaws of Nativeapp, there are several reasons that will inevitably make WebApp comeback.
One is that with the advent of HTML5 (forecast to be fully finalized next year) and the development of its related technologies, more and more developers will develop Web applications, and apps will gradually fade. At the same time, the browser will be further evolved to become a platform for developers, its rendering of data elements, display and operation functions will be more rich and powerful, for example, the recent emergence of d3.js, its ability to generate SVG images from the data is very impressive. A very rich user interface can be developed. I think that in addition to the functionality that is already available, future browsers will have the following features:
1. Programming excuses for developing cooperative applications
2. Integration function (integration of various services, which is a bit like the skeleton of the Swiss Army knife)
3. Geo-information-based programming interface
4. Safety function/or safety function programming interface
5. Game Engine
6. Payment function (?)
7. Function programming interface based on image/video (photography, photographic function)/calendar/gravity sensing, etc.
8. Adaptive Adjustment of screen size
Second, with the development of bandwidth technology, such as the popularization of 4G and 5G technology, the bandwidth problem of disturbing webapp can be solved basically. The characteristics of WebApp are consistent with the development trend of cloud computing. And the Nativeapp of the popularity of software and the service trend of the contrary, this can only be a temporary phenomenon
Third, with the development of the display technology, mobile terminal small screen problems, will eventually become the past, with the resolution of the screen problem, the original desktop Internet mode, will be more easily transplanted over.
Four note that with the advent of browser platform functionality, hybrid applications (essentially webapp) may occupy an important seat. It can be expected, 10 years later, there is no mobile internet and fixed internet points, the Internet only one, in the process of this big change, many companies will rise, many companies will decline, as in the past more than 10 years. Now the traffic and communication technology, basically obliterated people's nostalgia, but can not annihilate humanity. The development of society is like the ebb and fall of the tide, which pushes the tide to fall, the surface is the technology, and the surface is the unchanging humanity.
People's patience is inversely proportional to the rhythm of life, and now the pace of life is fast, so Weibo can be a big line. The future of the world, the competition will be more intense, the pace of life will be faster, truly grasp the human nature, you will be able to master the future. Some people may think that this is a bit iffy, I would like to cite another example, I have seen a report that the world's Internet one-third traffic related to pornographic sites. This is a bit unexpected, but think also in reasonable, "food color, sex also", more than 2000 years ago, the hole of the second to tell everyone (oh, so call the hole sage, a bit disrespectful). In particular, pornography sites, photos and videos are mostly, are large bandwidth consumers. So the flow is very large, it is not surprising.
The app must die, the Web will live forever, because the web is more "human" (including the greed of human nature). Will there be a better technology than the Web? I believe so, but it's too early to predict. Perhaps one day, even the web's underlying protocol TCP/IP will become the past. In the technical field, there is no newest, only update; no best, only better. "How bold, how big a man is," describes the progress of technology, is full of suitable. In the Internet, Google is a good example of how big your imagination is and how much space you can play.