Warning of B shares collapse: Be careful with major adjustments in the bull market

Although the combined regulation on Monday is temporarily ineffective, the market trend above is still confusing, far from the time to lift the alarm. The A-shares that have been out of control are still running on the normal market, or are there a sudden surge in traffic. I don't think it will take a few days to see them.

We don't need to argue whether the market will support the Unilateral market at such a high speed and whether the bull market will make decent adjustments.

However, due to the market trend under the media's high attention, many people are discussing the possibility of confusing the potential risks with the bull market, which will undoubtedly make the flood worse.

　　Bull market adjustment in Taipei Stock Market　　
　　
Given the similar bull market background, in the securities circle, we are happy to regard this round of A-share bull market as a reverse version of the Japanese stock market and the stock market boom that accompanied the appreciation of the local currency between the end of the 1980s s and the beginning of the 1990s S. For the-share market that lacks a reference system at the moment, looking back at the ups and downs of the Taipei stock market in that year, those statements that claim that the bull market will never go back and that there is no risk during the bull market will naturally not be cracked.

Coincidentally, the starting point of the bull market of the "Taipei Weighted Index" in 1987 is also near the millennium. In nine months, the Index soared from 1039 to 4673 (this unilateral increase is also close to the current A-share market). What happened in the next three months? A huge bull market! -- The weighting index dropped from the October high point to the 2239 point at the end of the year, with an adjustment of 53%! After that, the bull market started again and took nine months. The index was now 8789 points high, and then fell sharply again. After three months, it stabilized at 4873 points, which also plunged by 45%. In February 10, 1990, the three-year wild bull market reached an absolute peak of 12495 points, and it was a long-running bear market.

This is a big market with a cumulative increase of more than 10 times. Although the sudden drop of 50% was very lethal in the past three years, it happened twice, similar experiences have repeatedly appeared in the bull markets of the Japanese stock market and the Indian stock market of similar scale. We are so confident that we are willing to think that the fate of A shares will be exceptional?
　　
　　Remain vigilant against future trends　　
　　
It is not surprising to have suffered heavy losses in the bear market, but we should always be alert that if we ignore the phase risks in the bull market, we will also be ruthlessly eliminated by the market. For example, I don't think it is unnecessary for us to be highly cautious about the future trend above.

As a matter of fact, the bull market risk has already begun to be reflected this week. Ask the investors who invest in Shanghai B shares to find out their feelings. As a discount market that has been neglected for a long time, the Shanghai B-shares market has been waking up recently. In combination with the speculative craze of A-shares in Shanghai, the performance of B-shares is far greater, however, when the huge price difference of AB shares is about to be flattened by huge sums of money, the risks are not expected. Shanghai B shares experienced a slump for two consecutive days, and there were not a few hot stocks that even fell below.

Yesterday, closed-end funds that have been quiet for a long time also began to take off simultaneously. Their background is similar to that before the early start of B shares, and a large discount is the main target of capital pursuit. On the surface, the market after seems to be still maintaining a strong position, but there is still a treasure to expand the space of the variety of the decline, and the rise of the market is ignored. The quote height of closed-end funds will be under pressure on the discount margin. For varieties with a certain discount space, there will naturally be space in the short term, but this week's heavy hit by the B-share market should be its fate, what does it mean for the entire market if all closed-end funds with the highest requirements for compensatory growth have the fate of B shares this week? (NIU Xiong)