08 years of sales in the previous May 80% two types of real estate stocks opportunities

09 Sales exceed 08 is a foregone conclusion real estate investment growth is slow, the policy will remain "warm". January-April, real estate development investment year-on-year growth of only 4.9%, April single month investment quarter-on-quarter growth 2.9%. The housing boom index stabilised in April after a 15-month consecutive fall, but is still close to a ten-year low in March. In order to maintain economic growth, the future of real estate policy will remain warm. A sharp reduction in the capital ratio of commodity housing projects is conducive to raising financial leverage and stimulating real estate investment.　　For property tax, the real introduction will still take a long time, without any real impact in the short term. Sales of the property market in May had reached 80% of sales of 2008 years ago. January-April, the country's new commercial housing sales grew 17.6% year-on-year, the sales average price rose 15%, April month sales average price rose 17%, the chain Rose 8.6%.　　Since March, the warm spring market in the red May continued to spread, the key cities in the property market is still very prosperous, volume year-on-year growth is significant, the majority of cities in the first 5 months of the cumulative sales have reached 2008 annual sales of 70%~90%,2009 year than 2008 has become a foregone conclusion. Real estate shares will be more than expected first of all, the US-led Western countries are now adopting an ultra loose monetary policy that is leading to higher international commodity prices, the rise in inflation expectations is clear. Since April, five-year inflation expectations have risen from 0.72% to 1.36% and 10-year inflation expectations rose from 1.31% to 1.8%, according to tips data. China this year, the credit is staggering, the new credit is close to 6 trillion, is expected to reach 8 trillion yuan a year; second, since the beginning of the two quarter of 2008, developers slashed the new start, has still not significantly recovered, which will directly lead to the second half of 2009 real estate supply tight, and real estate consumption is　　As a result, the second half of the securities judgment began, house prices will have a more obvious rise. In this year's annual strategic judgment, the securities had recommended "super property Stocks", the May market a bit hesitant, mainly worried about the sustainability of sales, the May actual sales figures to dispel the doubts of the securities, real estate is gradually towards recovery. The improvement of sales will directly lead to real estate company performance improvements, house prices would be a big repair of the housing enterprise gross profit margin, resulting in a sharp increase in corporate profits. Property stocks are expected to have a modest performance forecast for 2009, but the results will be much higher than expected next year.　　Although the shares of real estate shares have already included some of the expectations of warmer sales and rising house prices, they are still not enough, and credit securities adhere to the annual strategic judgment-"super real estate stocks" to maintain a "cautious recommendation" rating for the real estate industry. China Securities believes that at present investors can pay attention to two types of property stocks. One is a large number of high-quality, Low-cost land reserves of regional leading companies, just like a few years ago, we recommend Poly Real Estate, Vanke A, investment real estate, etc., the state letter of the securities advised to pay attention to Yunnan City, Zhongtian City, Fuxing shares, Suning Global and other regional leading; second, the asset reorganization and asset injection of the company, the state certificateCoupons bullish large shareholder land, the restructuring of the strength of the company, such as Guangyu development, AVIC Real Estate, St million Jie, St Dongyuan and so on. National Credit Securities