09-year performance or 80% brokerage stocks speculation is expected to heat up

Changjiang Securities believes that, with the arrival of the interim report, the first half of the securities brokerage performance is expected to significantly exceed expectations, plus the second half of the brokerage business to become the growth of brokerage performance, securities brokerage unit will be worthy of attention. The first half of the year's results exceed expectations Changjiang Securities believe that the securities industry semi-annual results will exceed market expectations. The six-year report of the securities company has been kicked off, the Yangtze River securities are expected to achieve a total of 106 brokerages in the first half of the industry is expected to realize net profit of more than 44 billion yuan, at least year-on-year growth of about 37.5%, while last year's medium-term net profit accounted for 66.5% of the year,　　The fund turnover of 177.1 billion yuan conservative estimate, 2009 Securities industry performance is expected to increase by about 80%. Listed securities companies due to the decline in the performance of 2008 years relatively small, and Citic Securities, Haitong Securities, National Yuan Securities, northeast Securities and other brokerages in the medium-term profit completion rate is relatively small, and is expected to be about 5%~10%, the annual performance growth of about 35%.　　Overall, the performance growth of securities companies exceeded market expectations. Market turnover is also expected to continue to exceed market expectations. The size of the non-tradable shares lifted the effect of the increase in the number of shares to promote the stock fund turnover to a new level, the 2008 market downturn in the average daily turnover of more than 60 billion yuan is proof. In the context of ample liquidity, the lifting effect has been fully released, constantly refreshing our forecasts for the annual average daily turnover, the average daily turnover of the market has reached 272.7 billion yuan since July.　　It is expected that the second half of the year is still likely to exceed the Yangtze securities on the second half of the annual average of 166.8 billion yuan, so, in the first half of the year-on-year increase in turnover of 30.45% on the basis of the full-year growth may reach more than 59% The second half of the brokerage revenue has a new bright spot brokerage business commission rate fell better than expected.　　Although many analysts in the market forecast the size of daily turnover is larger than the assumptions of the Yangtze securities, and some even assumed this year turnover will exceed 200 billion yuan, that is, more than 2007 years daily average of 193.9 billion yuan, but the overall growth rate is expected to be small, mainly because the rate of lower commission rates.　　According to the results of the grassroots investigation by the Securities Business Department of the Yangtze River, the first half of the whole industry commission rate fell by about 14%, at the same time, due to the general decline in the brokerage business expenses, income and other factors, so that brokerage revenue and net profit growth better than the market expectations. Brokerage business is the first half of the brokerage performance growth of the main driving force, the Yangtze River securities are expected to be the first quarter of the brokerage business income share even increased. In the second half of the brokerage business income will have more revenue sources: first half of the securities brokerage average of relatively small, after May is expected to increase the overall self-investment in the second half of the growth, is expected to increase the income growth of proprietary business; The second is that since May, the number of targeted additional projects has GEM will be launched soon, as well as the scale of corporate debt issuance continues to climb, the brokerage investment bankingA significant increase; third, the newly issued funds and securities collection assets Management plan has been more than 2008, the asset management scale of the increase in the business income will also be in the second half of the year.　　Comprehensive factors, the Yangtze River Securities believe that good performance, the Northeast securities which have the opportunity of allotment investment deserve sustained attention, followed by Haitong Securities, national Yuan Securities and Citic Securities, which are expected to be better than anticipated, and the shares of securities companies should pay more attention to Jilin Ao Dong, and the listing of GF Securities will increase the market value of more than 37%. Changjiang Securities