1500 to 200 billion new credit is expected in November

Our bank 26th released the monthly economic Outlook said that November new credit is expected to continue to fall, is expected to fall into the range of 1500 to 200 billion yuan, the median value of 175 billion yuan. Societe Generale expects that November M1 will remain at a higher level, year-on-year growth fell to the 32.5至33.7% range, median of 33.1%, up 1.1% from 32% last month.　　November M2 year-on-year growth will fall to 28.7% to 29.3% of the range, median 29%, the growth rate fell by 0.4% last month. According to the report, although in normal years, new credit in November is generally significantly higher than October, but regulatory, capital constraints and the need to protect profits, such as the three major reasons for this November credit will continue to fall.　　However, even a new increase of $175 billion is still a considerable level in our view, says Lu, a senior economist at Societe Generale. Lu Commissar believes that the three major factors that led to the credit retreat include: first, the regulation from the big bank to the small and medium-sized banks. Regulatory strengthening from national banks has led to a fall in credit in recent months to a more sustainable state of stability, but has not yet been covered by small and medium-sized financial institutions.　　By the end of October, regulation had focused more on these small and medium-sized financial institutions, and the deterrent effect of credit was expected to be more pronounced in November. Second, there is a need to reserve "capital space" for next year's credit. As the capital adequacy ratio is increasingly regulated and likely to continue to raise capital adequacy ratios, the current capital adequacy ratios of the former credit force require the necessary "capital space" for next year's credit plan.　　This would be a constraint on the amount of credit that will be placed in subsequent months of the year. Third, the need to protect profits.　　If you say, the demand for guaranteed profits at the beginning of the year is the rational behavior of "a strong loan", in view of the regulatory authorities increasingly stringent provision of coverage, the end of the new credit not only to provide profits that year, but also consumes the current period of profits, which is obviously not conducive to the eventual completion of the goal of Societe Generale believes that even a new increase of 175 billion yuan is still a considerable level. First, it is still above the November average. Data analysis shows that in the 2000-2007 years, the average new credit in November was 145.6 billion yuan, lower than 175 billion yuan. Second, the current period of growth is not only financed by current loans. In fact, enterprises in the acquisition of loans in accordance with the established production plan to put in batches. Third, the current low credit suggests that credit will be more stable next year.